Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back on MVP track with improved plate discipline

As the legendary Yogi Berra once said, “Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical." That old adage remains true, especially for the sport’s elite class.

Toronto Blue Jays phenom Vladimir Guerrero Jr. inserted himself into that superior group during his memorable 2021 season, leading the team to a 91-71 record and finishing as the runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in the AL MVP race. But he still felt he had another gear to reach.

The All-Star slugger wanted to be even better the following season, hoping to outperform the 48 home runs and 166 wRC+ he posted in his third big-league campaign. Relying on raw talent can only get you so far in the majors, though, which he quickly discovered.

Repeating an MVP-calibre performance can often be challenging, as was the case for Guerrero, with everyone adjusting to the 24-year-old star. Pitchers started exposing his weaknesses by attacking him differently, focusing their attention on the outer half of the plate.

Toronto’s first baseman began receiving fewer fastballs — an offering he slugged .668 against in 2021 — and more soft pitches at the bottom of the strike zone. It didn’t phase him at first, but then the mental side of baseball set in, causing everything to change.

As the Blue Jays struggled to perform consistently, faltering to a 46-42 record before Charlie Montoyo’s firing, Guerrero put it on himself to carry the burden. He felt it was his duty as a franchise icon.

While that may work in other sports, one or two individuals can’t carry a baseball team alone — just ask Mike Trout and Ohtani. So when Guerrero took on that challenge, it ended up backfiring, forcing him away from his biggest strengths.

Two trends arose during that span: Guerrero tried to pull almost everything and began chasing pitches outside the strike zone. Those bad habits earned him a 52.1 percent ground-ball rate and a career-high 30.5 percent chase rate.

It also increased his strikeout rate (16.4 percent, the highest since his rookie season) while reducing his walk rate (8.2 percent). He reached base significantly less, lowering his wOBA from .419 in 2021 to .351 last season.

When the dust settled, Guerrero finished a few points shy of being a three-win player, just one season after being worth a career-best 6.3 fWAR. For a player of his stature, that was a major disappointment as he entered an offseason of self-reflection.

Coming off his age-23 season, the right-handed superstar focused on his mental health over the winter months and realized he needed to get back to basics. He needed to start letting the game come to him again rather than the other way around. And to become more patient in the batter’s box.

So far, across an 11-game sample size, this refined approach has Guerrero dominating the opposition in a similar fashion to his breakout 2021 showing. But he has also taken his craft up a few notches as well.

The 6-foot-2 slugger is currently tied for fourth in hits (18) among MLB batters while slashing a spectacular .400/.472/.556 over his first 53 plate appearances. He also owns two home runs, six RBIs and a 193 wRC+.

Guerrero is creating loads of hard contact, producing 25 hard-hit balls, which is tied for first in the majors with teammate Matt Chapman, according to FanGraphs. The young phenom is also tied for the fifth-highest fWAR (0.7) among big-league hitters.

More impressively, though, the two-time All-Star has showcased remarkable plate discipline as he’s walked five times and struck out on only three occasions. He also carries a career-best 18 percent whiff rate and a 25.3 percent chase rate, placing in the 85th and 63rd percentiles, respectively.

Since he’s been swinging and missing less, his swinging strike rate has improved to a career-low seven percent.

Left-handed pitchers, in particular, proved the most troublesome last season. By becoming more patient, Guerrero has only struck out once against a lefty in 2023 and hasn’t chased a fastball thus far.

It is a small sample size, but there’s no denying Guerrero’s process has been successful. While it’s reduced his swing-and-miss totals, it has also resulted in more in-zone contact, leading to a career-high 89.4 percent clip.

Creating contact is essential. Distribution, however, is often just as vital as putting balls in play. But for Guerrero, the majority of his batted balls have been directed to the pull side every season prior to this current one — another point of emphasis for 2023.

A byproduct of improving his plate discipline has enhanced Guerrero’s ability to let balls travel, similar to Bo Bichette’s approach. The team-wide standard set by manager John Schneider on the first day of spring has Toronto leading the majors in opposite-field hits (38) this season.

Guerrero has accounted for eight of those 38 knocks, as nearly 50 percent of his base hits have been struck the other way. Schneider’s message has been heard, although it has created more than opposite-field hits, as it has kept Guerrero in the middle of the field.

No longer is he pulling off outside pitches to hunt pull-side home runs. Instead, with opposing teams still pitching him away, he can stay back and drive those pitches straightaway and to right-centre — his two most dangerous areas.

In doing so, Guerrero features a 46.5 percent pull percentage through 11 games, which would be the highest rate of his career over a full season. For comparison, he finished 2022 with a 37.6 percent pull percentage.

If you needed another reassurance, two of his top three exit velocities from this season have been hit straightaway — a 115.5-mph single and a 112.3-mph groundout.

Things have become much simpler for Guerrero in 2023. Thus, he has been more willing to pass the baton to his teammates rather than trying to solve his club’s issues with one giant swing. Of course, it helps when you have additional support behind you.

Chapman, who leads the majors in fWAR (1.1), has been among the few to slot in behind Guerrero this season, as has newcomer Daulton Varsho. But to help maintain this successful formula, both must continue to produce, which hasn’t been an issue out of the gate.

At 7-4, scoring runs has come easily for the Blue Jays. Preventing them, however, has proven significantly more challenging. But as the starting rotation works to correct its woes, Toronto has more than enough firepower to keep its head above water.

Having Guerrero return to his MVP-calibre form will certainly help in that regard, especially as the team looks to slow down the 11-0 Tampa Bay Rays this weekend.