Why a Marcus Stroman reunion isn't likely for Blue Jays

The Blue Jays will almost certainly be buyers at the trade deadline, Marcus Stroman looks to be available, and there are rumours the team is interested in bringing him back to Toronto.

The team initially traded Stroman in 2019 because it was a young, rebuilding squad that needed prospects more than a veteran starter. Now it is a veteran group that has acquired players at the trade deadline for postseason pushes in three consecutive seasons.

Landing an established player of Stroman's calibre isn't out of the question. Getting him specifically probably is.

The first reason is that starting pitching isn't Toronto's most urgent need.

After Alek Manoah's successful MLB return, the team is left with a starting five of Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi. That group isn't the most intimidating MLB has to offer, but despite Manoah's struggles it has produced the league's eighth-best ERA (3.93) and fWAR (7.0).

Unless Gausman's current left-side issue is far worse than initially expected, this is a group Toronto can feel comfortable with — especially now that Hyun-jin Ryu is working his way back to the majors. Ryu is still a wild card, but he could theoretically give the club six viable options.

That doesn't mean the Blue Jays won't explore the idea of adding a starter. The club may come to the conclusion that after Gausman, its rotation could use another top-end option. Stroman's performance in 2023 has been more convincing than any other Blue Jays starter with a fWAR (2.6) that ranks 13th in the majors.

Even so, there are contending teams like the Houston Astros or Baltimore Orioles with more acute starting-pitching needs. In a vacuum, the Blue Jays could see adding Stroman as a fine idea, but it's unlikely they'll step up to outbid other suitors motivated by holes in their rotation.

The Blue Jays aren't desperate for what Stroman provides, and a lack of desperation could lead to a more cautious approach.

Getting Stroman would also take a haul of prospects the Blue Jays seem unlikely to part with in a deadline deal. Entering 2023, MLB Pipeline rated Toronto's farm system 20th in the majors, while FanGraphs put it 24th. Since then, top prospects Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera and Addison Barger have all dealt with injuries, while breakouts have been few and far between, outside of Orelvis Martinez.

If Toronto tries to reel in a big fish at the deadline, it will be leaving the farm system in an uncomfortably thin state in the aftermath. Doing that for a player who can opt out of his contract after the season would be uncharacteristically reckless for this front office.

Even if the Blue Jays wanted to go that route, Stroman seems unlikely to be the player they'd do it for due to reasons that go beyond on-field fit. While it's unfair to speculate on the front office's relationship with the player too much, there is some baggage there.

The 32-year-old did not have the smoothest exit from Toronto in 2019, and he publicly criticized the Blue Jays' front office in the immediate aftermath of getting traded to the New York Mets. He's also taken other shots at the team since his departure, tweeting and deleting a comment about the team never building around its core and re-tweeting a post that called the Blue Jays "small-town cheap" for not re-signing him.

Is there a world where the Blue Jays front office determines that such venting isn't particularly meaningful, and they can have a professional relationship now? Sure. But when they explore the trade market their first port of call probably won't be the guy who has put them on blast multiple times on Twitter.

Stroman could undoubtedly help the 2023 Blue Jays, and there is reporting that indicates they've at least contemplated bringing him back. While a reunion isn't impossible, there are other clubs that need him more, have better trade chips to offer, and have never had an issue with him off the field.

One of those teams is far more likely to end up with Stroman than the Blue Jays.