Blue Jays get huge hits from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. while others struggle in big spots

As a team, the Toronto Blue Jays have a horrendous reputation for clutch hitting in 2023.

While the lineup has hit .260/.327/.417 this season — good for the sixth-best wRC+ in the majors (107) — they have only produced the 17th-most runs in MLB. That massive discrepancy is mostly explained by Toronto's inability to get timely hits when they need them.

It's an issue that has affected the vast majority of the lineup, but one hitter has bucked that trend. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 2023 hasn't met expectations in a number of ways, but when it comes to clutch hitting, he's the one player the team has been able to count on.

On Wednesday, the Blue Jays were heading towards a dispiriting loss where a 2-0 lead was erased by a three-run home run from Luis Robert Jr.. The team was two innings away from a fourth consecutive loss, until Guerrero hit a rocket the opposite way.

It was a familiar sight for the Blue Jays, as their last win was a 2-1 victory that came via a two-run shot from Guerrero.

Without these two home runs, the Blue Jays would be looking at a five-game losing streak, something the team could ill afford as they sit two games outside a wild-card spot.

Seeing Guerrero heat up is encouraging for Toronto in a general sense, as the 24-year-old has hit .297/.381/.703 over his last 10 games. That kind of power spike might be a harbinger of whats to come for Guerrero in the second half.

More immediately, the team needs some timely hitting and it must be a relief for them to see the slugger deliver. Guerrero has never hit a walk-off home run, and he led the majors in double-play balls last season, leading to a reputation as a guy who can be less trustworthy than his talent suggests when the stakes are high.

Those criticisms haven't always been fair — and Guerrero has always had to deal with massive expectations that are difficult to meet — but any chatter about his failure to step in big moments can be put aside for a while.

Comparing how he's fared in bigger moments to the team as a whole, it's clear that he's been as reliable a clutch hitter as the Blue Jays have got.

Because of this pattern of Guerrero consistently stepping up for the Blue Jays — while others fail to do so — his effect on the team's winning is unlike anything he's done before. His Win Probability Added (2.72) is already higher than what he did in a full year last season (2.10), and it's awfully close to his 2021 MVP runner up season (3.22), despite Vladdy hitting far worse overall in 2023 and playing just 83 games so far.

Guerrero ranks seventh in the majors by that metric among qualified hitters, despite posting the 40th-best wRC+ overall.

None of this is to say that he has discovered a magic formula to hitting precisely when it matters most, and that's more important than his context-neutral numbers. For the slugger to have a successful campaign, he'll still need to improve his power output in the second half — something he seems well on his way to doing.

What it does mean is that the Blue Jays have been absolutely desperate for clutch hits all year, and Guerrero has been delivering at an impressive clip. That trend may not hold up on either end as the season progresses, but for now Vladdy deserves credit for doing so much to keep the team afloat — even if his overall numbers don't indicate he's having a monster season.