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How the Blue Jays could find relief help in free agency

Nick Ashbourne
·Writer
Kelvin Herrera’s injury makes him a more feasible free agent target. (SI)
Kelvin Herrera’s injury makes him a more feasible free agent target. (SI)

Throughout this offseason the Toronto Blue Jays have made it crystal clear that upgrading their pitching is the priority.

That starts with improving their rotation — and there are a couple of ways they could go about that — but the bullpen is also a big issue. Ken Giles and Ryan Tepera will return to do the high-leverage work, but beyond that it would be hard to call anyone a lock.

A revamp here is a must, if only to provide the Blue Jays with some mid-season trade chips should they find themselves out of contention again.

Here are a couple of options they could explore:

The Rehab Investment: Kelvin Herrera

Age: 28
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball, Slider, Changeup
Fastball Velocity: 96.5 mph
2018 stats: 7.71 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 2.44 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 44.1 IP

How it works: Under normal circumstances Herrera would be a consideration for contenders only — likely on a multi-year contract. However, a torn Lisfranc ligament in his left foot ended Herrera’s 2018 season and he heads into 2019 with some question marks about his availability.

That means a team like the Blue Jays could swoop in now and take the kind of risk on him a contender might not. If you’re heading to the playoffs you might want to see how his injury plays out before investing, meaning you’re happy to see another team sign him now and you explore a trade if he’s healthy and pitching well later. The Blue Jays could also use his lowered stock to try and sign him as a longer-term piece, but that would be out of character for a relatively conservative front office.

When he’s on the mound Herrera is undoubtedly effective, even if he’s lost a couple of ticks in recent years. He still throws plenty hard, and although he doesn’t strike out as many hitters as most guys with his velocity, he tends to manage contact well and over-perform his peripherals.

The Boring-But-Logical Option: Shawn Kelley

It’s been a little while since A’s pitcher Shawn Kelley has taken the mound, and it turns out his chores are to blame.
It’s been a little while since A’s pitcher Shawn Kelley has taken the mound, and it turns out his chores are to blame.

Age: 34
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Slider
Fastball Velocity: 91.2 mph
2018 stats: 9.18 K/9, 2.02 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9, 2.94 ERA and 3.71 FIP in 49 IP

How it works: Kelley had a brutal 2017, but he’s kept his ERA below 3 in three of the last four seasons. In a world of volatile relievers, he’s about as steady as they come. His dustup with the Washington Nationals front office last year appeared to be a mountain made out of a molehill, and if the Blue Jays are going to employ Giles, Kelley is hardly a concern.

It’s true that he’s lost a little bit of fastball velocity, but his breaking ball is still killer and he throws it about half the time, leading to rock-solid strikeout rates. Considering his age and an odd 2018 campaign that included getting injured washing dishes, he probably won’t be widely coveted. He could pitch well enough on a short term deal to be an appealing trade target, though — like a rich man’s John Axford.

The Injury Dart Throw: Carson Smith

Carson Smith has a history of shoulder problems, but also a career ERA well under 3.
Carson Smith has a history of shoulder problems, but also a career ERA well under 3.

Age: 29
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Two-Seam Fastball, Slider, Changeup
Fastball Velocity: 92.0 mph
2018 stats: 11.30 K/9, 3.77 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9, 3.77 ERA and 3.72 FIP in 14.1 IP

How it works: When Smith pitches, he almost always pitches well. The problem is that he’s rarely taken the hill lately thanks to elbow and shoulder issues. Since the Mariners traded him to Boston prior to the 2016 season, he’s pitched just 23.2 innings in the major leagues.

That means he’s probably a minor-league signing with an invite to camp, but if he could find his way out of the injury wilderness he has the potential to make a real impact. In limited action last season, he showed his nasty slider can still miss bats — and Blue Jays fans have seen with Dustin McGowan that there’s hope for those who lose multiple seasons in a row.

The Turnaround Special: Brandon Maurer

It’s no secret that Brandon Maurer hasn’t been good lately. (AP)
It’s no secret that Brandon Maurer hasn’t been good lately. (AP)

Age: 28
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Slider, Changeup
Fastball Velocity: 96.5 mph
2018 stats: 8.90 K/9, 7.18 BB/9, 2.01 HR/9, 7.76 ERA and 6.58 FIP in 31.1 IP

How it works: Maurer was absolutely dreadful by every meaningful measure last season. There’s no disputing that. Even the season before he posted a 6.59 ERA in 59.1 innings (albeit with a palatable 3.93 FIP). Bringing the big right-hander on board would be a low-cost bet on talent over production.

He still has top-notch velocity, and he’s been quite durable in recent seasons as well. That seems to indicate that from a physical perspective he’s just fine. If the solution here is mechanical, and you believe in your coaching staff, a fix shouldn’t be too far away. Considering how little he’d cost, there isn’t much downside here, and the upside is significant.