Blue Jays' desire for change in 2023 hasn't paid off in season's opening third

When the Toronto Blue Jays finished their 2022 season in heartbreaking fashion, they made a determination that the status quo wasn't acceptable.

The team was coming off three consecutive seasons with a winning percentage between .533 and .568 and two winless playoff appearances, plus one campaign that came a win short of earning them a playoff berth.

Based on those results, the conclusion that the team was good, but not good enough was justified. That led to an offseason shakeup which involved trading for Daulton Varsho, signing Kevin Kiermaier, adding Chris Bassitt, betting on a Brandon Belt bounce back and trading Teoscar Hernandez for relief help in the form of Erik Swanson.

These moves were in service of creating a more well-rounded Blue Jays team with improved defence, more left-right lineup balance and a better bullpen.

At the season's one-third mark Toronto's defence is better, but despite the influx of lefties the team is worse versus right-handed pitching (113 wRC+) than it was last year (118 wRC+), and its bullpen's ability to keep runs off the board (3.83 ERA) mimics the 2022 group (3.77 ERA).

Not only have the promised improvements failed to come through in an impactful way, the Blue Jays are also dealing with some surprising underperformance from their core.

Alek Manoah is providing less than five innings per start and sporting a 5.53 ERA. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn't rebounded from a down 2022. George Springer has come on recently, but for most of the year he's provided below-average production out of the leadoff sport. The catching duo of Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen are hitting for a combined .227/.314/.368 after slashing .277/.361/.447 last year.

Between those developments and the retool failing to move the needle, the Blue Jays find themselves in an early season hole. The team's 28-26 record is far from disastrous, but they are last place in the AL East — 10.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays. By FanGraphs' reckoning Toronto's playoff odds sat above 70% on May 17, and now the team's chances of reaching the postseason have fallen below 50%.

There are more than 100 games left to be played and the range of outcomes for the Blue Jays from here remains wide. A World Series title, as difficult as it is to envision, is still a possibility for this group.

That said, the 2023 edition of this team was designed to get over a specific hump. The best way to do that would've been winning the AL East and avoiding the wild-card round they've tripped up in recently.

Although it's too early to completely rule out the possibility of Toronto topping this division, the word "completely" is doing some heavy lifting there.

The 4.4% this graph is presenting might be on the generous side.

Winning the AL East would mean being 10.5 games better than Tampa Bay in 108 games. Prior to the season, FanGraphs had Toronto pegged as just 1.9 games superior over 162, and the Rays are clearly stronger than they looked entering the year. A Toronto win would also involve leapfrogging three other squads, each of whom could easily get hot if the Rays falter.

If the idea of a division win is taken off the table, that means the Blue Jays are in a desperate fight to attain the status quo they were trying so hard to break free of during the offseason. It's possible that Toronto could make a run from a wild-card spot, but the randomness of a three-game series and the prospect of a rested favourite in the next round makes that a daunting challenge.

The story of the Blue Jays' 2023 season is yet to be written, but the likelihood of this campaign playing out according to plan is already slight. That's not necessarily because of the new players as Bassitt has generally been solid, Kiermaier is providing outstanding value, Belt's production at the dish is above-average and Varsho could easily come around.

None of the Blue Jays' offseason moves can be dismissed in a vacuum. But the dream they would create a new kind of team in Toronto that would drive a greater level of success is on life support.