How the Blue Jays can find relief help via trade

If there’s anything that a month of playoff baseball teaches us its that it’s hard to overstate the importance of a good bullpen.

Not long ago, teams – especially those of a more sabermetric inclination – would be inclined to avoid investing heavily in relief pitching due to its volatility. However, a couple of Kansas City Royals runs and some memorable playoff blowups later, the calculus looks a touch different.

The Toronto Blue Jays benefitted from the emergence of relievers like Ryan Tepera, Dominic Leone, and Danny Barnes to put together a surprisingly effective and remarkably cheap unit. Even so, reinforcements are probably in order.

Those reinforcements could come in free agency, but a more cost-effective method from a payroll perspective would be to swing a deal with another team.

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Here are a couple of guys that could be available via trade:

The World-Class Gas: Kelvin Herrera

Age: 27
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Slider, Changeup
Fastball Velocity: 97.5 mph
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible in 2018, projected to earn $8.3 million
2017 stats: 8.49 K/9, 3.03 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9, 4.25 ERA and 4.30 FIP in 59.1 IP

How it works: There’s no better way to emulate the Royals than to pluck away their last remaining bullpen ace. With just one year of team control remaining, Kansas City doesn’t have much to gain by holding on to Herrera, especially given his not-insignificant salary.

Herrera is undoubtedly coming off an off year, but the stuff is still there as his fastball velocity remains elite and hitting triple digits is still within reach. Arguably his best skill has traditionally been his ability to keep the ball in the park and if that can rebound it’s an especially valuable asset in this homer-happy era.

There is risk here if Herrera is indeed on a downward slide, given his $8.3 million price tag and the fact Kansas City would require some kind of prospect return. That said, with his youth and stuff, a rebound seems in order.

The Underrated Rival: Brad Brach

Age: 31
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Slider, Changeup
Fastball Velocity: 95.0 mph
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible in 2018, projected to earn $5.2 million
2017 stats: 9.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.18 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 68 IP

How it works: This one would be a little tricky due to the inter-divisional dynamic. There’s also the issue that the Baltimore Orioles have yet to wave the white flag of surrender and begin an overdue rebuild.

Perhaps the Orioles could be talked into moving Brach if they got someone they felt comfortable putting in their bullpen as part of the return package. Perhaps this is the offseason they’re willing to see reason. Given that Brach only has one more year of control, it would behoove Baltimore to move him.

Whatever the case may be, if the Blue Jays could pry Brach away they would get themselves a pitcher who has logged at least 62 innings with an ERA of 3.18 in four straight years with peaking velocity to boot. That’s a pretty appealing package.

The Injury Risk: Brad Boxberger

Age: 29
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Slider, Changeup
Fastball Velocity: 92.3 mph
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible in 2018-2019, projected to earn $1.9 million in 2018
2017 stats: 12.27 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 3.38 ERA and 3.43 FIP in 29.1 IP

How it works: Although the Tampa Bay Rays share the AL East with the Blue Jays, they tend to be open-minded about doing business – especially when it comes to shipping assets with limited team control for younger, cheaper players.

Boxberger will be a steal at his arbitration number both this year and next, providing he stays somewhat healthy. That’s the main issue with the right-hander, though. Over the last two seasons he’s made three trips to the disabled list and pitched only 53.2 innings.

When he is on the mound he’s been extraordinary at missing bats and can be relied upon as a late-inning weapon. In 2015 he piled up 41 saves as the Rays closer, and he had arguably a better season the year prior striking out 14.47 per nine as a setup man.

If the Blue Jays are willing to bet his next two years will look more like 2014-15 than 2016-17 healthwise, they’d have themselves a heck of an addition. That’s a risky bet, but if it weren’t, Boxberger probably wouldn’t be available in the first place.

The Mistake Correction: Liam Hendriks

Age: 28
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Slider, Curveball
Fastball Velocity: 94.7 mph
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible in 2018-2019, projected to earn $1.9 million in 2018
2017 stats: 10.97 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.22 ERA and 3.22 FIP in 64 IP

How it works: Hendriks and the Blue Jays already have a pretty extensive history. They’ve plucked him off waivers once, traded for him another time and traded him away twice. Most recently, they shipped him to the Oakland Athletics and an ill-fated deal that netted them Jesse Chavez.

After two pretty successful years in Oakland, the Blue Jays would do well to bring him back again. His projected price tag is very reasonable, and very quietly he’s been one of the most consistent bullpen arms in baseball lately. Over the last three years, his 3.8 Wins Above Replacement ranks 18 among MLB relievers. That might slightly overstate his value as he’s tended to underperform his peripherals, but he’s still a very solid option.

The Athletics are another team that’s almost always willing to move players close to free agency and it’s hard to see them reeling at the idea of trading Hendriks. As a player whose production exceeds his name value – and salary – he’s exactly the type of guy the Blue Jays should be looking into.

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