Avoiding a 10-game losing streak offers the Blue Jackets relief, but not hope

With no context whatsoever, the Columbus Blue Jackets' 7-3 win against the Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday included some encouraging signs for the team.

Boone Jenner scored two goals to bring his season total to a solid 10, Zack Werenski continued his bounce-back season with a four-assist effort, and after a healthy scratch he didn't take kindly to, Patrik Laine scored on a feed from blue-chip rookie Adam Fantilli.

You could make an argument that the Blue Jackets really needed a win on Wednesday, but the victory could also be described as a band-aid on a flesh wound.

Columbus is flailing on almost every possible level with a 5-11-4 record, and little hope for a near-term turnaround. The Blue Jackets rank in the bottom third of the NHL in most major 5v5 possession metrics, they've gotten sub-.900 save % goaltending, and their power play is abysmal (10.9%).

The only thing the team has done well this season is kill penalties at an 88.1% clip.

None of that sounds particularly surprising for a team coming off a 59-point campaign, but that's not how Columbus saw itself entering 2023-24. The club hired a win-now coach in Mike Babcock and added two pricey veteran defensemen in Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson — who is now out six weeks with an oblique injury — in hopes of radically improving their fortunes.

Babcock was a disaster who didn't even make it to opening night, and the blueliners haven't moved the needle. The idea that Columbus could compete in 2023-24 was also predicated on the notion they'd see better efforts from Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, and goaltender Elvis Merzļikins than they did last season.

Gaudreau has eight points in 20 games and got benched last Friday alongside Laine — who was scratched soon after and has just four points to his name. Merzļikins has been slightly better than last year, but his numbers are well below-average across the board.

Right now the Blue Jackets have a team that's in a deep hole in the standings, lacks firepower and has unreliable goaltending. There are young players like Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov who are showing promise, but there's no reason to believe Columbus can make a playoff push from here. At the moment, MoneyPuck.com is giving them a 9.3% chance to reach the postseason — and that feels like a stretch.

Columbus also lacks the inventory to become a notable seller at the trade deadline. The team has just three players who will be UFAs following the season: Jack Roslovic (on the LTIR with an ankle fracture), Eric Robinson (fourth-liner with more appearances in the AHL (9) than the NHL (2) this season), and Spencer Martin (backup goaltender with a career .888 save percentage).

The Blue Jackets entered 2023-24 acting like a team ready to compete for a playoff spot, and they're stuck on a death march down that misguided path. Coach Vincent Pascal seems intent of holding this group to a high standard with his benchings, but its unclear if that's a standard they can meet — and he might be alienating players who are under contract for a while in Laine and Gaudreau.

Although there's some impressive young talent on this roster headlined by Fantilli and 19-year-old blueliner David Jiříček the road forward will be difficult. The team is surprisingly locked in with a projected $20.55 million in cap space for 2024-25 but new contracts required for RFAs Marchenko, Cole Sillinger, Jake Bean, Alexandre Texier, and Yegor Chinakhov.

The aforementioned underperforming trio of Gaudreau, Laine, and Merzļikins combined to make $23.85 million through 2025-26. Severson's $6.25 million cap hit looks heavy running through 2030-31, and he recently turned 29.

Columbus seems doomed to a grim 2023-24, and building a contender from there isn't going to be easy.