Advertisement

Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 1 Fantasy Football

matt harmon
Fantasy analyst
·19 min read

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 1 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

An AFC South matchup awaits on Sunday and has to be one of the most anticipated showings of Week 1. The Texans are a Super Bowl contender after C.J. Stroud offered up one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in recent memory. The Colts, meanwhile, were a loss to those Texans away from making the postseason and now will drop uber-exciting Anthony Richardson behind center.

It’s also a “start all your guys” spot in fantasy football, for the most part.

For Houston, we’re looking to set expectations for the rest of the season in this Week 1 affair. We’ll get more clues on how the receiver corps settles in. With Nico Collins entrenched at X-receiver, the key will be seeing exactly how Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell settle into the other roles. All three should thrive situationally and hold essential roles for Houston. Gamers should go ahead and just break ties in favor of playing guys from this matchup, so all the Houston receivers should be in lineups. Especially considering the success this team had against Indianapolis last year.

Stroud posted 9.02 and 11.69 adjusted yards per attempt against the Colts in two matchups last year. He set his season-high in passing yards in the first game and his best completion rate in the second. The Colts drafted rookie pass rusher Laiatu Latu in Round 1 but otherwise brought back the same secondary for Gus Bradley’s defense.

The Colts are certainly the bigger unknown in this game, given that we’ve seen so little of Richardson. He’s a polarizing player because he was a highly drafted fantasy quarterback despite getting limited time as a rookie. As a result, folks were swift to overanalyze his preseason showing. That didn’t matter to me one bit, no matter how it works out with Richardson in the end. We rarely see coaches roll out their full offense with these hyper-athletic young passers. Shane Steichen is in the circle of trust as a play-caller and will likely unveil something more dynamic than what we got in the exhibition game.

No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman is a starter here, but keep an eye out, and possibly a bench spot reserved, for rookie AD Mitchell.

With slot man Josh Downs ruled out, the Colts will play Mitchell in various roles. If the gifted rookie shines, he can hold down a spot in this ascending offense all year.

We saw this matchup turn into a delicious back-and-forth affair in the Wild Card Round of last year’s playoffs and that will be the expectation in Week 1. This matchup opened up with the highest projected point total on the slate as two of the best offenses meet up.

Everyone on the Lions offense should be in fantasy football lineups, with the possible exception of Jameson Williams depending on how many wide receivers you are required to start. Williams should be a near-every-down player, but we don’t yet know if he’ll carve out a significant target share. The fringe player you should be getting into lineups is David Montgomery. The Rams lost one of the best defensive football players of all time in Aaron Donald this offseason, so the run defense should suffer. Montgomery may be required to take on a more significant role in Week 1 with Jahmyr Gibbs coming off a hamstring injury from training camp.

No team lost steam more than the Rams this August. The offensive line was supposed to be a fortified wall that would continue the mauling ways L.A. established last season. Now, heading into Week 1, left tackle Alaric Jackson is suspended, right tackle Rob Havenstein is banged up and Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson, who was injured this offseason, are switching positions. It can all gel quickly, but that’s more volatility than we hoped for. Star receiver Puka Nacua is also coming in after dealing with an injury this offseason.

All of these can quickly be washed away as August woes in a matter of a few snaps Sunday night. However, if any of this negativity carries over into the regular season, especially against a Lions defense that should be on the rise, we will make some adjustments heading into Week 2.

The Jets are hoping that Week 1 on Monday Night Football goes off better than their 2023 opener. Aaron Rodgers is back after missing almost all of last season with a torn Achilles. There’s less fanfare around his Jets run this time around, but his return is no less impactful.

The 2023 season showed us that Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson have everything it takes to be two of the best young players at their respective positions. Hall finished the season in dominant fashion and was dangerous as a pass-catcher. He led all running backs in catches and yards. Meanwhile, Wilson led all pass-catchers in air yard share (45.8%) and performed like an elite separator when viewed in isolation via Reception Perception. Drafters were all-in on the ceiling cases for both Jets players, as they went inside the top-12 overall players in most drafts.

We need to see a functional, if not good, version of Rodgers to truly get the return.

Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

The 49ers battle station is fully operational after Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk’s contract situations were resolved. Aiyuk is still going to be in your fantasy lineup regardless of the recent weeks of drama, but there’s a chance he takes a backseat to Deebo Samuel regardless. The Jets' zone-heavy defense is the type of unit Samuel tends to shred, while Aiyuk may be sacrificed to Sauce Gardner on one side of the field. Aiyuk should be more of a focal point as the season wears on, and he is so good he can still make magic at this start.

While this game should be a must-watch and there are so many fantasy players involved, don’t be surprised if it’s a lower-scoring affair overall. The Jets defense is a strong unit and it may take their offense a week or two to really get rolling as Rodgers settles in.

Most important Steelers storyline: New quarterback … same results?

Fantasy managers generally believe that both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will be weekly flex plays. Considering the ability of both backs, the way Mike Tomlin wants to call offense and the strength of the offensive line, it’s a good bet. The question is whether the passing game takes any kind of leap under the leadership of Russell Wilson. Despite some statistical success last year for the quarterback, the Broncos were not a good offense at any stretch with Wilson under center. Those limitations will put a ceiling on the Steelers' offense, even if Wilson is an upgrade on Kenny Pickett. We might have to wait on Wilson's Steelers debut due to a calf injury that popped up late in the week, meaning Justin Fields could get the Week 1 nod. No matter who does start at QB, the Falcons may have a bottom-five pass defense, so at least some shot plays will be available to George Pickens.

Most important Falcons storyline: Going beyond the obvious — new coaching staff and Kirk Cousins — I’m tracking Drake London’s alignment in this game.

One of the many issues London faced in Year 2 was ultra-static X-receiver deployment in Arthur Smith’s offense. The best receivers in today’s game move around the formation to exploit matchups and create layup throws for quarterbacks. We’ll learn a lot about how sharp this new staff is based on London’s alignment data. It’s also significant for his projection in Week 1 on its own. The Steelers have Joey Porter Jr., an ascending perimeter press-man corner. Getting London slot reps and playing him off the line will get him free from Porter, the Steelers’ most fearsome corner.

Most important Cardinals storyline: Can Kyler Murray continue his strong play from down the stretch?

Murray averaged 8.07 adjusted yards per attempt in the final three games of 2023. You feel good about that slow ramp-up, considering he was working back from a torn ACL. If he can even approach that level of efficiency this season in an offense with ascending young playmakers, he will be a fringe top-five fantasy quarterback. He’ll bring several Cardinals skill-position players along to difference-maker territory. The Bills ranked seventh in dropback EPA allowed last year, so this is a stiff test. Don’t panic if we get off to a rocky start.

Most important Bills storyline: The wide receiver rotation and gathering answers.

My hunch is that the Week 1 picture for Buffalo’s wide receiver corps will not be the exact image we see all season long. This is likely to be a rotation where we don’t get a “right answer” in terms of one standalone WR1. However, several viable players in this room can have stretches of strong production. Going into this week, if you need to play one of them, the answer is likely Khalil Shakir. He’s a holdover who was hyper-efficient when targeted last season. That doesn’t mean he’s a clear-cut fantasy play; no one from this room is. Week 1 is more a fact-finding mission in an admittedly nice matchup.

Most important Titans storyline: The dawn of a new age for the Titans offense.

It’s been plain as day just about any time we’ve seen Brian Callahan speak in front of a mic and made even clearer by the team’s roster moves: this isn’t your same old Titans.

Gone are the days of an ultra-slow, run-heavy offense that has maybe one, if any, viable wide receiver. Even when speaking on the running backs, this coaching staff has been quick to praise their receiving skills. The passing game will be more of a point of emphasis than we’ve seen in Tennessee for quite some time. Can Will Levis and especially the offensive line hold up their end of the bargain to bring an efficiency boost along with the increase in volume? That’s the first question we want answered in Week 1. We’re not quite rushing to get Titans players in lineups just yet, but we’ll be more open to it if they have a strong showing in Chicago.

The most important Bears storyline: It’s simply Caleb Williams.

The first start for a rookie quarterback typically doesn’t go well. But this isn’t your typical rookie quarterback's first start. The Bears have a much better roster than most teams who draft a quarterback high, much less No. 1 overall. The defense is coming off a strong finish where Williams shouldn’t have to throw his way out of a deficit and even if he does, this group of skill-position players is better than any we’ve seen placed around a No. 1 overall pick. If Williams passes this test with flying colors, we’re going to get multiple every-week starters out of Chicago.

Most important Jaguars storyline: Travis Etienne was the RB3 last season, so most gamers probably don’t realize that Jacksonville’s run game was quite poor last year.

That may be putting it kindly. The Jaguars ranked 31st in rushing success rate last season and 30th in EPA per rush. Etienne was productive as a pass-catcher and scored 11 touchdowns, but that was deodorant on an otherwise messy rushing attack. An improvement in the ground game overall would be a net positive for the back, of course, but it also would be a boost for the passing game. Getting Trevor Lawrence and Co. in better down-and-distance situations would at least be a step in the right direction for a pass attack that lost its way too often in 2023.

Most important Dolphins storyline: What does Mike McDaniel have up his sleeve this season?

Through his two years as the Dolphins' head coach, Week 1 has always been a showing-off point for McDaniel where he unveils a new wrinkle the league isn’t ready for. Last year, it was the full-speed “cheat” motions that shot the whole offense’s efficiency to new heights. Does he have something this season? There’s a chance it involves some heavier personnel players like deep sleeper tight end Jonnu Smith. Fantasy managers hope it will somehow involve De’Von Achane; perhaps as a multi-alignment pass-catcher to help boost his per-game scoring near his aggressive ADP.

Most important Raiders storyline: Whether or not Gardner Minshew can keep this offense moving.

The Raiders have skill-position talent to work with and a solid offensive line. If an above-average starting quarterback was in place, this would be a team we want to draft into in fantasy football. As it stands, Minshew is a question mark playing outside of Shane Steichen’s offense. We’ll see if Week 1 provides us any different answers than the ones most expect to receive.

Most important Chargers storyline: Heat-checking the run-heavy lean of the Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman offense.

We know this coaching staff wants to establish a physical, tough culture and that a power run game will be critical in that pursuit. I’m down with that premise. What I don’t buy into is what the fantasy hive-mind has assumed based on ADP in that this will be a near-worthless passing game. Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and Josh Palmer is something of a league-average starter at wide receiver, while rookie Ladd McConkey is a pro-ready slot option. The pass protection improvements and more vertical nature of the pass concepts in this offense can offset a loss in volume for Herbert.

Most important Broncos storyline: Bo Nix makes his NFL debut.

The Broncos, especially Sean Payton, have been effusive with the Nix praise ever since he was drafted. He quickly earned the starting job in preseason and was named a team captain. Actions will speak much louder than words and we’ll know how much they believe in Nix’s ability to handle things based on how Payton called plays in Week 1. Last season, Russell Wilson ranked eighth out of 39 quarterbacks to take 200-plus dropbacks in deep throw rate but still led the league in check-down rate (18.6%) by a significant margin, per Fantasy Points Data. If we see something similar to this check-down or chuck-it offense, it’s an indicator Denver still has the training wheels on Nix.

Most important Seahawks storyline: Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s development.

The second-year receiver was much better on film than the results-based stats showed in 2023, especially when asked to run routes in the intermediate area of the field.

That should be a critical part of the route concepts in Ryan Grubb’s pass attack as he installs his system in Seattle. JSN was one of my favorite breakout picks going well outside the top-35 receivers in drafts this offseason. Let’s see if he can be more of an every-down player this year, starting in Week 1.

Most important Cowboys storyline: The Cowboys have one of the best wide receivers in football in CeeDee Lamb. On paper, the rest of the room is not all that inspiring.

If Brandin Cooks is more of a target earner than last year, or Jalen Tolbert has taken a major Year 3 leap, then either would be a possible fantasy value. In the backfield, we’re looking to see if Week 1 usage points us toward either Ezekiel Elliott or Rico Dowdle being close to a true starting back. Only a Dowdle emergence would move the needle for fantasy, however. We know what Zeke will bring to the table.

Most important Browns storyline: The Browns made a playoff run last year under Joe Flacco, not Deshaun Watson. The most straightforward answer is the only story that matters for Cleveland.

If Watson is still not capable of consistently offering above-average quarterback play, this will be an offense we break ties against when making weekly lineup choices.

One reason to maybe watch: It’s worth tracking the Bengals' running back rotation.

Both Zack Moss and Chase Brown were worth drafting at ADP this year and there is a chance both can be correct answers at different stages of the season. My gut tells me Moss will lead the backfield in touches because he’s viewed as the more reliable guy, for now.

Still, there's a good chance both backs get plenty of work Sunday with Tee Higgins doubtful with a hamstring injury and Ja’Marr Chase dealing with an illness after holding in all summer.

On New England's side, we’re merely following how this offense functions in Week 1. Are the offensive line concerns valid and will any pass-catchers step up? And how quickly will the clock strike midnight on Drake Maye watch?

One reason to maybe watch: Pass protection on both offenses.

Many issues haunted Bryce Young as a rookie quarterback. Most of the problems stemmed from, or were made worse by, an offensive line that couldn’t hold up in protection. We’ll get early indications of whether the improvements to shore up the interior will work. The Saints' offensive line, mainly tackle play, was a concern as a potential deadweight anchor to an otherwise interesting offense all offseason. Preseason games did nothing to ease those worries.

One reason to maybe watch: The layup answer is the right one. It’s to see if either of these quarterbacks can exceed expectations this season.

Since he was drafted, Sam Darnold has been one of the least efficient starting quarterbacks in the league. He’s offered hyper-brief glimpses of steady play in steady situations. Fantasy managers and the Vikings’ brass are hoping they can stretch those moments out over 17 games, but a stiff Week 1 test is on the horizon against a ferocious Giants defensive line.

Daniel Jones fell flat in 2023 after getting a massive contract extension. Anyone who drafted Malik Nabers will want to see him return to simply serviceable levels behind a healthier offensive line and with the electric rookie giving Jones layup targets. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores put bad quarterbacks in a blender last season, so Week 1 is a good measuring stick.

One reason to maybe watch: To see if Kliff Kingsbury has anything more up his sleeve.

Typically, as I mentioned at the top with Anthony Richardson, I don’t want to overreact to preseason play from young athletic quarterbacks because they’re operating in vanilla offenses. Coordinators don’t want to tip anything before unveiling a master plan in Week 1. The problem is, what the Commanders rolled out for Jayden Daniels looked an awful lot like the typical Kliff Kingsbury offenses in Arizona.

Daniels will likely be a fantasy starter for many who drafted him based on ADP, but I’m conservatively going to have him outside my top 12. Week 1 could be a mixed bag against a Todd Bowles defense that stresses out young, mobile quarterbacks with its blitz packages.

Note: Packers-Eagles was in the binge category when this story was originally published, but this portion has been moved here since the game has since been played.

Two of the better offenses in the NFL will meet on Friday night in Brazil. While we should have high expectations for both, one is a unit with a lot of stability while the other is going through a major transition.

The Packers bring back their layers of talented skill-position players and rapidly climbing quarterback Jordan Love, with of one of the NFL’s best play-callers and offensive designers at the controls. Green Bay’s offense is the exact ecosystem we want exposure to in fantasy football. The problem is that they’re at least four deep in the receiver room with good (to some degree) players and are likely to involve both of their gifted young tight ends. We all knew that would create a target and route share squeeze, so none were ranked too highly and it’s difficult to play any of them as more than WR3 or WR4 options even in a good matchup.

We’re about to get our first clues as to how the roles may play out the rest of the season. This may cause an overreaction to one week’s worth of data points. Yet this one will be more important than any 2023 playing time stat from your favorite fantasy analyst or offseason coach-speak note.

As was my move all offseason, my enthusiasm for the receiver room as a whole just leads me to more Jordan Love exposure. He’s a top-five quarterback in Week 1 against a defense that was chaotic to end last year. While Vic Fangio will right the ship in time, his defenses have taken a month or so to heat up over the years.

The Eagles are far more fascinating to observe in Week 1. You’re starting all of the main players so there’s no need for much analysis from a fantasy perspective. However, this is one of the most fascinating fact-finding missions of the opening slate. I’ve written extensively about this during the offseason and discussed it on countless podcasts, but the marriage between Jalen Hurts and Kellen Moore will be a big change for both parties. The Eagles ranked dead last in dropbacks under center in each of the last two seasons, while Moore’s Cowboys were 10th and 7th in 2021 and 2022. If it hits, the big four players in this offense are going to the moon. Again, we don’t want to overreact to one week because transitions require time. But this is a big first step against a defense that is also shifting identities to, likely, more single-high coverage under Jeff Hafley.