Big 12 Power Rankings: Sorting teams by tiers ahead of unpredictable football season

Welcome to the new Big 12, a football conference that is now dominated by chaotic results and parity instead of Oklahoma and Texas.

Brace yourself for a wild ride. The race for a league championship has never felt more wide open.

Don’t believe me? Try this test. Ask yourself how many teams have a prayer of reaching the Big 12 title game in Arlington, Texas. In past years, your answer would probably max out around four. Right now, you could make a case for eight or more.

With unbalanced schedules and 16 teams this figures to be a year unlike any other.

We should all expect the unexpected.

That could lead to some wild shifts in our Big 12 Power Rankings as the season goes along. For now, though, here’s how we forecast the conference heading into Week 1, with four tiers to help you keep tabs on every team.

Tier 1: Contenders

Big 12 championship odds provided by BetMGM

1. Oklahoma State (+700)

The Cowboys were only picked third in the Big 12 preseason poll, but they received 14 votes for first place. One of them came from yours truly. Why? Because Oklahoma State won 10 games last season and most of its best players return. Ollie Gordon might be the best running back in the country. The Cowboys have a nasty offensive line. Alan Bowman is the perfect game manager for this offense.

No one will be surprised if Mike Gundy gets this team back to the Big 12 championship game.

2. Kansas State (+375)

Avery Johnson is only a sophomore and he hasn’t started a single regular season game at quarterback since he enrolled in college, but that hasn’t stopped him from becoming a trendy pick to win the Heisman Trophy. The Wildcats have a high ceiling with him under center and Chris Klieman on the sideline.

3. Kansas (+900)

The Jayhawks return a lot of talent and experience this season. If star quarterback Jalon Daniels can stay healthy, Lance Leipold’s team can make some noise against a favorable schedule.

4. Utah (+275)

Many think the Utes will cruise to the Big 12 championship game during their first year in the conference. But I’m not sure. Yes, Utah had plenty of success in the Pac-12. Changing leagues isn’t easy, though. TCU, West Virginia both struggled mightily when they first made the transition to the Big 12. BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF were all mediocre last season. Don’t be surprised if Utah encounters some growing pains this season.

Tier 2: Sleepers

5. Iowa State (+900)

Many left the Cyclones for dead last season when they were caught up in a preseason gambling scandal. But Matt Campbell’s team found a way to win seven games and reach a bowl. Now that quarterback Rocco Becht is a year older and most of his top playmakers are back in Ames, this group has upside.

6. Arizona (+1400)

The Wildcats were one of the hottest teams in college football at the end of last season. I have my doubts they can recreate that magic with Brent Brennan taking over as head coach. But they do have the best QB/WR duo in the conference with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. So this team will have a chance.

7. UCF (+900)

If the Knights can figure out how to stop the run this season, watch out. KJ Jefferson seems like the perfect quarterback for Gus Malzahn, and UCF is always salty when it plays at home inside the Bounce House. But letting other teams run all over your defense is no way to win in this conference.

8. Texas Tech (+1600)

Everything from quarterback injuries to schedule difficulty seemed to work against the Red Raiders last season. Perhaps they are due for some good fortune this year.

Tier 3: Wild cards

9. West Virginia (+2000)

Kudos to Neal Brown for winning nine games last season. But it’s worth pointing out that most of his wins came against weak competition. Victories may not be so easy to come by when the Mountaineers play Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, K-State and Arizona over a stretch of five games this year.

10. TCU (+2000)

What a wild ride it’s been for Sonny Dykes with the Horned Frogs. He took TCU to the national championship game in Year 1 and then missed a bowl in Year 2. Maybe he will find a happy medium in Year 3.

11. Colorado (+2500)

This team has star power and sleeper appeal with Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders leading the way. But there’s a reason that oddsmakers set Colorado’s over/under win total at 5.5.

Tier 4: Longshots

12. Baylor (+6000)

It’s hard to believe that Dave Aranda is on the hot seat so soon after guiding the Bears to a Big 12 championship. But he has much to prove this season.

13. Cincinnati (+8000)

The Bearcats could reach a bowl this season, as they face one of the easiest schedules in the entire conference.

14. Houston (+15000)

Willie Fritz will find a way to make this team competitive by the end of the season.

15. BYU (+15000)

The Cougars managed to win two Big 12 games last season, but they were outscored by an average of 21 points in their losses. Improvement could be hard to come by this year.

16. Arizona State (+10000)

It’s going to be a long season for the Sun Devils.