Avalanche begin NHL offseason with flurry of smart moves

There have been a flurry of trades around the NHL in the lead-up to free agency, but the club whose moves stand out the most might be the Colorado Avalanche.

Colorado entered the offseason on a low after a surprising upset loss to the Seattle Kraken in the first round of the playoffs. The team then learned captain Gabriel Landeskog would miss all of 2023-24 due to a knee cartilage injury.

The Avalanche also seemed likely to lose second-line center J.T. Compher in free agency one year after watching second-line center Nazem Kadri walk under similar circumstances.

As long as the Avalanche have Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen, their floor is high, but they came into the offseason with work to do. With free agency approaching, they began the process of remaking their roster with three trades in a five-day span.

Here's the end result of those deals:

Coming in:

• C Ryan Johansen ($4 million cap hit)

• C/LW Ross Colton (RFA)

• 2023 first-round pick (Mikhail Gulyayev at 31st overall)

Heading out:

• C/LW Alex Newhook (RFA)

• The negotiating rights to C/LW Alek Galchenyuk (UFA)

It's worth noting Colorado received the 37th overall pick in the 2023 draft in the Newhook deal before shipping it out in the Colton trade. But the net result is a wash.

Essentially, the Avalanche moved a forward who logged bottom-six minutes for them over the last three years — and seemed likely to do so again in 2023-24 — plus the negotiating rights to a fringe NHLer, for a first-rounder, a player who could fill the biggest hole on the team at second-line centre, and a middle-six scorer likely to be a short-term upgrade on Newhook.

That seems like a clear win for Colorado. This team has a better product to put on this ice than it did a week ago, and most of the risk it's taking on is financial.

Even though the Nashville Predators absorbed half of Johansen's contract, there is still a possibility he doesn't provide value on a $4 million AAV over the next two seasons. If he can't play at a second-line level, he'll be an expensive bottom-six guy.

While the big center has undoubtedly declined in terms of both durability and production in recent years, he's still just 30 and only one year removed from a 63-point season. He's unlikely to replicate a number like that in Colorado, where he may not draw first-unit power-play minutes, but he's still a solid playmaker who tends to drive a positive shot differential when he's on the ice.

Johansen is no one's idea of a star, but he's a capable offensive presence and excellent faceoff man who figures to bridge the gap to the next second-line pivot the Avalanche find. It is usually difficult to get players of his calibre for nothing.

While there's a chance that $4 million proves to be a steep price tag for him, bringing him aboard seems wiser than inking a massive long-term contract for Compher, who should have plenty of suitors in a market where productive centers are scarce.

Grabbing Johansen was a measured gamble for the Avalanche, but snagging Colton from the Tampa Bay Lightning looks like a steal.

The 26-year-old has never put up massive numbers with the Lightning, but he's also never skated more than 12:48 per night. On a per-minute basis, he's been a menace over the last two years — producing the 31st-best G/60 (1.10) at 5-on-5 among players with 120-plus games played.

For a little context, that puts him right between Clayton Keller and Adrian Kempe, who combined for 78 goals last season.

Those numbers aren't the result of small-sample shooting luck, either. Colton's shooting percentage over the last two seasons (12.2%) is far from absurd.

It will be interesting to see if the Avalanche are able to find more ice time for him than the Lightning did, but that seems advisable. The good news for Colorado is the contract it works out with the RFA will be based primarily on what he's produced in the past — and that output has been depressed by his limited opportunities.

On a more subjective level, the forward comes aboard with a ring, plenty of playoff experience, a willingness to throw his body around — his 188 hits ranked second on the Lightning last year — and a desire to go to the net, which led to the Stanley Cup-winning goal in 2020-21.

The Lightning likely felt unable to provide a reasonable contract for Colton considering they have just $450K in cap space, but their cap crunch could pay off for the Avalanche. Colorado has a relatively modest $8.575 million to play with, but that budget could expand to $15.575 million if it places Landeskog on the LTIR.

Not having to pay Newhook should help the club make the most of that money as well, and it's tough to envision the team suffering too much from his absence.

As a 22-year-old former first-round pick, Newhook has some upside, but he hadn't topped 33 points in a season, didn't have any penalty-killing experience and was so disastrous in the faceoff dot over three seasons (38.6%) that his utility as a center is in question. Losing the young forward could come back to bite the Avalanche somewhere down the line, but that seems unlikely.

Even if it does, they are a win-now outfit that can afford to sacrifice some of their future to maximize their championship probability in 2023-24.

In less than a week of working the phone lines, the Avalanche have improved their 2023-24 squad while picking up a first-round prospect along the way. Until Colton signs a contract, the precise financial ramifications of their moves won't be clear, but they seem to be in a solid position on that front.

Other front offices have made splashier moves over the last week, but Joe Sakic and Co. deserve credit for what they've done. Colorado has brought in useful players without having to relinquish anyone likely to be important to its 2023-24 chances or a single asset that projects to be meaningful to its future.