Yahoo Sports Australian Open women’s singles final prediction: Madison Keys to push Aryna Sabalenka all the way
Australian Open women’s final betting tips
Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-1 - 5/2 William Hill
Aryna Sabalenka to win, not in straight sets, match won’t go to final set tiebreak - 3/1 Bet365
Aryna Sabalenka faces Madison Keys in the women’s singles final at the Australian Open in Melbourne on Saturday morning (live from 8.30am, Eurosport).
Defending champion Sabalenka is looking for her third Australian Open title in a row – having won here in 2023 and 2024 – as well as the fourth major title of her career.
And the Belarusian looks in fine form ahead of the final, having beaten 11th seed Paula Badosa 6-4, 6-2 in the semi-finals.
Sabelenka will face 19th seed Madison Keys for the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup, with the American having produced one of the shocks of the tournament to beat Iga Swiatek in a final-set tiebreak to secure a dramatic 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (10-8) victory.
The 29-year-old Keys is making just her second ever major final appearance, having lost the 2017 US Open final to Sloane Stephens, and betting sites have her as the clear underdog, pricing her at 11/4 to get the win.
While Sabalenka is the overwhelming favourite at 2/7 with tennis betting sites, Keys’ semi-final victory has already shown that she is more than capable of pulling off an upset in Melbourne.
Australian Open women’s final betting tips: Sabalenka to win in three
Despite a slightly shaky start to her semi-final, Sabalenka eventually cruised through against Badosa, with the 6-4, 6-2 win showcasing the dominance that led her to two hard court majors in 2024 – both in Melbourne and at the US Open in September.
The 26-year-old has only dropped one set so far in the tournament – against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarter-finals – despite not necessarily being at her best and her experience will be just as important as her ability on Saturday.
In addition, the ease with which the Belarusian has won means that she has only played one three-set match at the tournament, compared to Keys’ four consecutive three-set matches.
Nevertheless, Keys is in some of the best form of her career, having beaten second seed Swiatek in the semi-finals. She is on an 11-match winning streak too and hasn’t had it all her own way in Melbourne, showing impressive composure to eventually beat Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina in earlier rounds.
However, Sabalenka has the better record in the head-to-head, having won four matches to Keys’ one. To that end, it might prove good value to wager on Sabalenka to win, but not in straight sets, and betting apps are offering 5/2 for the defending champion to win 2-1.
Australian Open women’s final prediction 1: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2 sets to 1 - 5/2 William Hill
Australian Open women’s final betting tips: Back Sabalenka with 3/1 bet builder
With Sabalenka as the overwhelming favourite, there aren’t many markets offering value with single bets ahead of the final.
Instead, it may make sense to construct a bet builder if we want to find value from the prospect of Sabalenka earning victory.
With the Belarusian backed at 2/7 to take home her third Australian Open title in a row, wagering on the circumstances of the win could prove god value.
Backing Sabalenka to win but not in straight sets takes the odds to 5/2, while adding that the match will not go to a final-set tiebreak gives you odds of 3/1.
If you are backing Sabalenka to win but not in straight sets, this bet builder simply adds that you are betting that the match will not go all the way – in other words, Sabalenka will win the third set without it going to 6-6.
Considering that Sabalenka has won all three of her hard court meetings with Keys, and has only lost three of her last 38 matches on this surface, it certainly makes sense to back the defending champion, though Keys won’t go down without a fight at the Rod Laver Arena.
Australian Open women’s final prediction 2: Sabalenka to win, not in straight sets, match won’t go to final set tiebreak - 3/1 Bet365
Responsible gambling
When having a bet, it’s vital to practice responsible gambling.
Betting can be addictive and it’s important to stay in control of your betting. Never treat gambling as a way to make money, never bet more than you can afford and when the fun stops, stop.
Gambling sites offer punters tools, like deposit limits, profit and loss trackers and self-exclusion options, to help them stay in control.
But if you ever feel like you need help or advice on gambling addiction, don’t hesitate to contact one of the charities or organisations below.
We may earn commission from some of the links in this article, but we never allow this to influence our content. This revenue helps to fund journalism across The Independent.
