Arsenal’s red card problem: History shows Gunners will have to overcome a big obstacle to win title

Arsenal lost their first game of the season and their first away game of 2024 in a 2-0 loss against Bournemouth on Saturday, following a first-half red card for William Saliba.

The Gunners have now received three red cards in only eight Premier League games, and in all three games it has cost them points. Declan Rice was sent off in the 1-1 draw with Brighton and Leandro Trossard in the 2-2 draw with Manchester City, both for second yellow cards for kicking the ball away, and then Saliba in the weekend game against the Cherries.

Mikel Arteta’s side have dropped seven points this season as a result of their red cards and now sit four points behind leaders Liverpool. The two sides meet this Sunday, in what already looks like a crucial game for Arsenal. A loss would see them go seven points behind Liverpool.

Saliba was sent off on Saturday for bringing down Evanilson in a clumsy challenge near the half-way line. The referee initially gave a yellow card but was asked by VAR to review the decision and following the review he gave the red card.

Speaking after the game, Arteta said: “Playing with 10 men is obviously an issue. We cannot continue to play with 10 men. The task becomes almost impossible. We need to eradicate that.”

The Spaniard’s comments are telling, given that with the other two red cards this season he was not happy with the refereeing decisions. This time he seemed more annoyed at his own team for the mistake.

Aside from the main issue of Arsenal’s disciplinary problems, missing Saliba against Liverpool will be a huge loss. The Frenchman has been brilliant for Arsenal over the last few seasons and has established himself as one of the best centre-backs in the world.

The difference between Arsenal’s record with and without Saliba since the start of the 2022/23 season is stark. In the 73 games with him, the Gunners have won 74% of those and in the 11 games without him, have won only 45.5%. They have only conceded 0.8 goals per game with him and 1.6 without him.

With Bukayo Saka a doubt and Martin Odegaard also set to miss the match, the loss of Saliba makes an already difficult match on Sunday look even harder.

There is also a wider issue, which is that the last time a team won the Premier League with three red cards or more was Leicester in 2015/16. The Foxes’ triumph is one of the all-time great underdog stories but the fact is that they only achieved 81 points that season. Arsenal got 89 last season and came second.

Before that, it was Chelsea in 2014/15 with four red cards. These were across 38 game seasons, whilst Arsenal’s three reds have come in just eight games, and it is fair to say the Premier League is of a higher quality now than it was back then.

It is of course way too early in the season to say Arsenal cannot win the title, but the signs are certainly worrying and they must be near perfect for the rest of the season if they are going to win the league.