Who will Arsenal face in the Champions League knockouts?

Arsenal deals & transfers January 2025

Arsenal’s 3-0 win over GNK Dinamo on Wednesday was an important one, but is a coveted top-eight finish confirmed? And who might the Gunners face in the next round?

Following Wednesday night’s 3-0 win over GNK Dinamo, Arsenal are third in the Champions League’s League Phase table, with one game remaining away to Girona next Wednesday.

From the start, the aim has been to finish in the top-eight positions, which means a bye to the round-of-16 in March.

Clubs finishing in positions nine to 24 have to play an extra two-legged knockout round in February, which is something Mikel Arteta has made it clear he’d like to avoid.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some frequently asked questions ahead of the final League Phase games next week.

Could Arsenal drop out of the top-eight in the final matchday?

The short answer is yes, but it’s very unlikely. If Arsenal win or draw against Girona, they guarantee a top-eight finish, whatever else happens.

If the Gunners lose, then there are still a lot of other results that need to go against them. And it’s not just a case of the right teams winning, but winning by many goals (or Arsenal losing very badly).

The six teams that are three points behind Arsenal all have a goal difference gap of six goals or more to make up.

Arsenal have conceded two goals in seven games, so assuming they don’t lose by more than one goal, those chasing teams would all need to win 5-0 at an absolute minimum. For others it’s even worse than that, like 13th-place Brest, who would have to beat Real Madrid 9-0.

Opta Analyst believe it’s so likely that Arsenal will finish in the top eight that they give it a 100% chance of happening. It’s not mathematically confirmed, but the reverse just requires too many pieces to fall into place at once.

Does it matter where in the top-eight Arsenal finish?

Yes. The knockout bracket is seeded, with only a small element of randomness involved. Finishing first means your team can’t face second place until the final, can’t face third or fourth until the semi-final, and so on.

The higher you finish, the better your chances of facing struggling teams for as long as possible. A win for Arsenal next Wednesday would likely mean either a third or second-place finish, and that would be much better than losing and scraping through in seventh or eighth.

The draw isn’t entirely fixed though. As an example, the team finishing ninth (currently Aston Villa), will face 23rd or 24th (currently Sporting and Stuttgart) in the knockout play-off round, but a random draw will determine which of the two it is.

The idea is to prevent teams fishing for a specific opponent by fixing their result.

As for country protections and protections against playing the same teams you faced in the League Phase, there are none. Arsenal could face Manchester City in the round-of-16, or a recent opponent like PSG or Sporting, and there’s nothing preventing that.

So who will Arsenal face?

It’s really not possible to say right now, with so many positions undetermined.

If the League Phase ended right now, Arsenal would progress to the round of 16 as the third seed, and they would face a team that finished either 13th, 14th, 19th, or 20th. As it stands, that’s Brest, Dortmund, PSV, and Brugge.

But it’s very unlikely those four teams will be in the same spots after next Wednesday’s game.

You can see UEFA’s as-it-stands knockout bracket here on their website.

When will the draws take place?

The knockout phase play-off draw is on January 31st. The knockout phase play-offs will be played between February 11th-19th, and the draw for the remainder of the competition will take place on February 21st.

The round-of-16, quarter-final, and semi-final draws will all take place at once.