Can Army make College Football Playoff? How Notre Dame affects Black Knights' CFP chances

Army football plays one of its biggest games in recent memory on Saturday when it takes on No. 6 Notre Dame in a top 20 matchup.

The 17th-ranked Black Knights (9-0, 7-0 AAC) face the Fighting Irish (9-1) at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, in a matchup that could prove Army is a real College Football Playoff contender in 2024. The undefeated Black Knights have already clinched a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game against No. 20 Tulane, which would give them another chance at a ranked win.

While Army isn't favored against Notre Dame on Saturday, an upset would give it a much-needed resume boost in the eyes of the CFP committee. The Black Knights, one of three undefeated FBS teams remaining this year, came in at No. 19 in Tuesday's third set of rankings. To compare, Oregon (11-0) and Indiana (10-0) ranked No. 1 and No. 5, respectively.

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Here's a look at the Black Knights' CFP chances, which may be decided after their matchup with Notre Dame on Saturday:

Can Army make the CFP?

Army is still in contention for the College Football Playoff, but it's overwhelmingly likely that it needs to beat Notre Dame on Saturday in order to have a resume on par with other teams vying to be the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, which receives an automatic bid.

The Black Knights (9-0, 7-0 AAC) are undefeated this season, but don't have any ranked wins. According to ESPN's FPI rankings, Army's strength of record ranks 19th in the country, whereas its strength of schedule ranks 133rd out of a possible 134 teams.

Its remaining strength of schedule, however, offers Army a chance to prove its viability as a CFP contender: The Black Knights' remaining games vs. No. 6 Notre Dame, UTSA and No. 20 Tulane (in the AAC championship) rank as the eighth-hardest remaining schedule in college football.

ESPN's College Football Playoff predictor machine gives Army an 11% chance to make the CFP, which ranks 21st nationally. Army's chances are notably behind Notre Dame's 69% chance and Tulane's 19% chance.

The predictor does, however, give Army a whopping 89% chance of making the CFP if it wins out, which would include wins over the Fighting Irish, Roadrunners and Green Wave. Army would have a 44% chance at making the CFP if it falls to Notre Dame on Saturday but wins out and wins the AAC championship over Tulane.

It's important to note Army's rivalry game against Navy won't contribute to its CFP chances, as the matchup comes on Dec. 14, six days after the 12-team field is set. If Army wins out and makes the playoff, its spot in the 12-team would already be set, regardless of the rivalry game outcome.

Army is more than likely going to need to win out to have a chance at the 12-team bracket, as it would need to jump both the Big 12 champion and Boise State — who's projected to win out and win the Mountain West — as either the fourth- or fifth-highest-ranked conference champion in the final CFP rankings.

To that end, the Black Knights would need to root for the Broncos to lose at least another game to feel comfortable in its potential CFP seeding. Army (almost) controls its destiny in the CFP race, but a tough task against Notre Dame — which would be among the school's top wins ever — awaits.

Army football schedule 2024

Here's a look at Army's 2024 football schedule, including results of each game:

• Friday, Aug. 30: vs. Lehigh (W, 42-7)

• Saturday, Sept. 7: at Florida Atlantic (W, 24-7)

• Saturday, Sept. 14: Bye

• Saturday, Sept. 21: vs. Rice (W, 37-14)

• Thursday, Sept. 26: at Temple (W, 42-14)

• Saturday, Oct. 5: at Tulsa (W, 49-7)

• Saturday, Oct. 12: vs. UAB (W, 44-10)

• Saturday, Oct. 19: vs. East Carolina (W, 45-28)

• Saturday, Oct. 26: Bye

• Saturday, Nov. 2: vs. Air Force (W, 20-3)

• Saturday, Nov. 9: at North Texas (W, 14-3)

• Saturday, Nov. 16: Bye

• Saturday, Nov. 23: vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (Yankee Stadium)

• Saturday, Nov. 30: vs. UTSA

• Friday, Dec. 6: vs. No. 20 Tulane (AAC championship game)

• Saturday, Dec. 14: vs. Navy (Landover, Md.)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Army make the CFP? Black Knights' playoff chances, schedule, more