Answering 15 questions on Heat personnel, trades, Butler, future of roster: Part 1 of 2

During the next two days, we’re asking and answering 15 Heat personnel/roster questions heading into the start of training camp on Oct. 1 in The Bahamas.

The first seven questions in Part 1 of a two-part series:

▪ Considering the Heat played poorly against the league’s best — 5-16 against top four seeds — and lost in the first round of the playoffs, why didn’t Miami make a major trade?

Lack of appealing trade options, combined with the Heat’s selectiveness in whom they pursue.

No All-Star player was dealt this offseason, and so it’s not as if the Heat squandered an opportunity to acquire one in recent months.

From all indications, Miami didn’t aggressively pursue Atlanta’s Trae Young and hasn’t been inclined to trade for the Pelicans’ Brandon Ingram and pay him the max contract he’s seeking. Utah wanted a mother lode of assets for Lauri Marakkanen, and the Heat wasn’t interested in that, either.

The Heat, nor anyone, had interest in Chicago’s Zach LaVine, who’s due $43 million, $46 million and $49 million the next three seasons.

The Knicks needed to send away five future first-round picks to acquire former Brooklyn forward Mikal Bridges, who has never played in an All-Star Game, and the Heat has only one tradeable future first-round pick.

So even though the Heat is very much open to making a trade, there was nothing realistic that presented itself since Miami’s January acquisition of Terry Rozier from Charlotte.

▪ But considering this roster seems stale and hasn’t won a title in five years, and considering that Miami lost 12 of its last 13 home games (often by double figures) against good teams, why not make a change simply for change’s sake?

I broached this in conversations with the team, and the feedback I received was this:

1). The Heat believes it has a very good roster when healthy and there’s no need to flip around deck chairs merely for the sake of change.

2). There’s no internal chemistry problem or some intangible issue that makes the Heat feel compelled to shake up the roster unless Miami believes it’s upgrading.

3). In some ways, the Rozier pickup was viewed as the equivalent of a significant offseason addition. Because Rozier and Butler were sidelined for the playoffs, there’s still no read on how good this team can be with all of players available for a extended stretch.

▪ With Jimmy Butler reportedly planning to play out this season and potentially opt out of a $52.4 million 2025-26 salary and become a free agent next summer, is the Heat worried about potentially losing him for nothing in 10 months?

No.

▪ Why not?

For starters, there’s not a single team that has the cap space to offer him a max contract next summer, as currently constituted, though Brooklyn can create that space without much problem. (We explained the league’s cap situation, with regard to Butler, in this July piece here.)

As ESPN’s Bobby Marks wrote: “Despite a projected 10 percent increase in the salary cap, ESPN is projecting only the Brooklyn Nets to have more than $30 million in room next July. The Houston Rockets could join the Nets if they decline the $44.8 million Fred VanVleet team option,” though the Rockets would still be short of a max salary slot even in that scenario.

The New York Post has reported that Butler likes the Nets, and Houston isn’t far from where Butler grew up. What’s more, even though the Nets currently have $38.7 million in 2025-26 cap space, they can clear out as much as $70 million.

But here’s the catch: The Nets are rebuilding, and signing a 36-year-old Butler would run counter to their timetable.

Also, a Rockets source said he doesn’t expect Van Vleet to be jettisoned for the purpose of adding another free agent, presuming Van Vleet plays well this season. But I wouldn’t rule out Houston by any means.

▪ At this point, the Heat wants to keep Butler to begin this season and remains open to an extension, based on how this season goes. Butler has said he wants to remain with the Heat, but those comments were made months ago.

If Butler wants to leave next summer in a sign-and-trade, would the Heat be receptive?

The sense here is that Miami would not refuse to cooperate (or play hardball) if Butler decides to play elsewhere.

Even if that type of trade next July wouldn’t net Miami an All-Star player in return and wouldn’t create the cap space to sign a max free agent, it could land the Heat a draft pick and flexibility to add a pretty good free agent or two.

▪ Let me get this straight: Even if Butler left, Miami wouldn’t have cap space to sign anyone great, correct?

Correct. The 2025-26 cap is projected to be $154.6 million, per ESPN’s Marks.

As its roster is currently constructed, Miami would have just $13 million in cap space if Butler opts out. That $13 million is actually comparable to the $13.5 million exception that teams above the cap (but below the tax line) would have in the summer of 2025.

But the Heat would be in position to complete a sign and trade for a free agent.

The problem is that LeBron James, Butler, Dallas’ Kyrie Irving, Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and the Knicks’ Julius Randle could be the only All Star caliber unrestricted free agents next summer, if they decline player options.

ESPN’s Marks notes that “out of 30 notable stars who would be considered playing at starting level or better, 25 are either: restricted free agents, have a player or team option, or are eligible to sign an extension.”

Marks lists the free agents this way in his ESPN piece:

Franchise level: LeBron James (player option/P).

All-Star level: Jimmy Butler (P) and Julius Randle (P).

Top Starter level: Jalen Johnson (Restricted free agent/R), Josh Giddey (R), Kyrie Irving (player), Aaron Gordon (P), Jonathan Kuminga (R), Jalen Green (R), Alperen Sengun (R), Fred VanVleet (Team option/T) Myles Turner (P), James Harden (P), Rudy Gobert (P), Brandon Ingram, Alex Caruso, Jalen Suggs ®.

Starter level: Clint Capela, Cam Thomas (R), Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac, D’Angelo Russell, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton (P), Naz Reid (P), Trey Murphy (R), Kelly Oubre Jr. (P), Tyus Jones and John Collins.

In a 2025-26 scenario without Butler, the Heat could inject itself in the mix for some of those players, through trades or with a $13.5 million exception.

▪ Is there a scenario where Butler could be traded before the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline?

Yes, if this season goes poorly. Or if Butler suddenly asks out, which I do not expect.

There is nothing to suggest that their relationship has gone bad; there remains mutual respect between the parties and a joint eagerness to make this a memorable season.

If Miami isn’t close to a top four seed at the trade deadline, or looking like a lottery or play-in team, then everything likely will be considered.

Miami has always considered the trade deadline, not this summer, as the deadline to improve the roster. The preference internally remains building around Butler, not trading him. But the first three months of the season will shape decisions by the front office and ownership.

Coming Wednesday: Part 2.