Andy Naylor, The Athletic: Why Brighton's form has dipped

The lack of leaders in Brighton's side has been a significant factor in their drop-off in form, explains Andy Naylor, Brighton correspondent for The Athletic.

Following a positive start to the Premier League season, the Seagulls are winless in their last five outings ahead of Friday night's game against Brentford at American Express Stadium.

Brighton are 10th in the Premier League at Christmas. What have you made of the first half of the season?

I asked Fabian Hürzeler about that the day before Christmas Eve, so he has spoken about that. Essentially, what has happened is, they kind of overachieved in the first 11 games, because the fixtures looked, on paper, a nightmare.

They had seven of last season's top eight in those first 11 games, and they did really well. Then what happens is that expectations grow. Now they are on a run of games that, again, you look at on paper, against teams more towards the bottom of the table and they have not done well in those games, so they are winless in five, going into Brentford's visit.

It is almost like, among some sections of the fanbase, there is an element of disappointment because, if those results were more evenly spread out, then 10th place at Christmas, three points off fifth, is actually pretty good, with a new head coach. I know every team has them, but they have had an awful lot of injuries to key players to contend with.

As you said, they are winless in five games, and in three of those five, they have taken the lead. Is there anything you can put your finger on as to why it has not gone quite so well recently?

Injuries have left them short of leaders, really. I think it is significant, for example, that Joël Veltman, who is a very dependable 32-year-old former Dutch international right-back, missed four matches with a calf injury and Brighton won none of those games.

He came back on Saturday, was taken off midway through the second half and they drew 1-1. It was the third of those five games in which they have led and have not been able to see it out, but they looked a lot more solid as a defensive unit with Veltman back.

In those previous games, they had been leaking a lot of goals. That is just one example where I think they have been a bit short. James Milner started the season very well playing in midfield, but we have not seen him since August. I think they have just been a little light on that and knowing how to get across the line.

Spending doesn't always equal success, but Brighton spent a fair bit of money in the summer. Do you think that increased expectations significantly among the fans?

They spent, by their standards, an unprecedented amount of money - nearly £200 million on nine new signings. They have never spent to that scale.

There were reasons for that; the midfield in particular needed bolstering, bearing in mind that over the last two or three years, Yves Bissouma went to Spurs, then after that, Moisés Caicedo to Chelsea, Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool, Pascal Groß went back to Germany in the summer with Borussia Dortmund, Billy Gilmore was sold to Napoli, so they were looking a bit light, particularly in that central midfield area.

Also, they recognised that this season is an opportunity - albeit that they have got a new head coach in Fabian Hürzeler after Roberto De Zerbi departed by mutual consent at the back end of last season - simply because a lot of what might be regarded as the sort of clubs they are competing against for a European place, there were FFP issues with some of them, so they thought this was a good chance.

For example, they brought Yankuba Minteh from Newcastle for £30 million. They would be one of the clubs they would regard as a European qualification rival, so they signed him at the end of June. They felt there was an opportunity there and, indeed, coming up to halfway through the season, they still feel there is an opportunity, even though, as I have spoken about, their form has been a little bit inconsistent.

Which player should Brentford fans be keeping an eye out for later this week?

I would probably go with Carlos Baleba in midfield. He is in his second full season at the club. He is still raw, but he is definitely an emerging talent. He has got box-to-box attributes, though probably still needs to work on defensive positioning; he is not at the level Caicedo was in that respect.

He is very mobile, athletic, a good runner with the ball. Potentially, you could see him being, at some point in the future, Brighton’s next big sale.

In terms of shape and style, what should Brentford expect?

Primarily, the system that has been used this season is 4-2-3-1. That is in contrast to when Hürzeler took St Pauli up from the Bundesliga 2 last season, when they won the title.

Not all the time, but he predominantly played with a back five, or back three, there. Brighton have only done that very occasionally, so the main system tends to be that 4-2-3-1.

What's your score prediction?

Neither side is coming into the game in the best of form, are they? They both really could do with a win – and what often happens in those situations is it ends up being a draw, so it would not surprise me in the least if it is a 1-1 or a 2-2.