Analysis: Regular-season title hunt, bubble dynamics jostled after Michigan

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoff picture contorted at both ends after a momentous Monday finish at Michigan International Speedway. A change at the top came by way of a validating victory for one of the circuit’s newer teams, and the playoff bubble had its own blustery day with its three primary residents all involved in crashes.

Strategy shifts and a pair of consequential overtimes told the tale of the FireKeepers Casino 400, spread over two days at the 2-mile track. Tyler Reddick made it his second victory of the season, and it put the 23XI Racing organization atop the Cup Series standings for the first time in its fourth year of operation.

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Reddick now holds the lead in the tight race for the circuit’s Regular Season Championship, which provides a bonus of 15 playoff points with the crown. Just two regular-season races remain — Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, NBC Sports App, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) and the finale a week later at Darlington Raceway — until that trophy is decided and the 16-driver postseason field is set.

Reddick’s rise to the top was hastened by Kyle Larson’s misfortune at Michigan, where he lost control in the 115th lap to trigger a multicar stack-up. Larson teammate Chase Elliott was in position to capitalize and regain the points lead that he last held a month ago, but late-race contact with Ryan Blaney in a restart shuffle dropped him to 15th in the finishing order.

Elliott is now 10 points back of new points leader Reddick, who has methodically gained ground with a streak of top-six finishes in the last seven races. Two months ago before that hot streak’s start, Reddick sat sixth in the Cup Series standings with a 64-point deficit to make up. Denny Hamlin, 23XI Racing’s co-owner with NBA legend Michael Jordan, said post-race that Reddick’s run to the head of the class marks a significant milestone.

“It’s legitimacy, right?” said Hamlin, who sits 28 points back in third place in the regular-season title hunt, just ahead of fourth-place Larson (-32). “I’m not going to say anybody, but almost anybody can be leading the points after two or three races, right? We’re 20-some races in. All the averages have worked themselves out. When we were in Stage 1 right there, the top four in points were the top four on the race track. It’s just not by happenstance. It’s awesome to see how tough they are. I mean, week in, week out, they’re a tough out. It’s certainly going to make my path a lot harder. That’s what I started the team for. This is part of the crux of being a team owner and a driver, you’re going to have to deal with the days they beat you.”

At the other end of the provisional 16-driver grid, Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher came out as Michigan’s best upward movers. Gibbs finished a solid third, padding his cushion above the provisional playoff elimination line from 18 points entering the race to a more promising plus-39. Buescher’s rebound had the more dramatic turn.

Buescher’s No. 17 RFK Racing Ford was caught up in the same crash that eliminated Larson and damaged fellow bubble dweller Bubba Wallace, but when a late caution period for Martin Truex Jr.’s wall slap forced overtime, his team opted to pit from 14th place in a divergent strategy move. In the two overtime sessions that followed, Buescher charged on fresher tires from 18th to sixth at the end, moving him from a dead heat with Ross Chastain for the final playoff berth into plus-16 stature.

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Chastain and Wallace both finished one lap down, with Chastain slipping to a 25th-place result after a spinout in Michigan’s first overtime and Wallace holding on for 26th after his wreck involvement. Chastain is just one point up on Wallace for the final berth.

Buescher likened the outcome to a best-case scenario after his No. 17 entry was crumpled at all four corners in the midrace mangle, and the top-10 finish was his first in a five-race span. The 31-year-old driver has long maintained that his focus is on winning and not gathering points, so the notification that he was 16 points ahead relative to the elimination line was news to him.

“That is the first I have seen it. I am adamant that we are not points racers but when our chance to win this thing was gone, ultimately that was some of the mentality, to figure out how to make the best of our day,” said Buescher, the defending 400-mile race winner at Daytona. “We had seen troubles from some of the other cars that were on the bubble. I wouldn‘t say we weren‘t aggressive on restarts, though. We were moving, but we were also trying to be smart and methodical about it and not put ourselves in a really bad spot. It was on our mind there at the end. It is what you have to do once you aren‘t in contention to win the race.”