Analysis: What’s gone wrong with TCU’s defense this season?

TCU’s bye week came at an ideal time as the Horned Frogs need a reset before delving into the final six games of their schedule.

Two collapses against Houston and UCF have put TCU in a precarious situation that could make reaching a bowl game difficult. If the Horned Frogs want to reach the postseason, they’ll need the new defense under Andy Avalos to turn the corner.

Avalos was hired to take over for former defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie and was supposed to bring in a more aggressive style of defense that could get after the quarterback and allow more freedom for players to make plays.

The unit looked good in the preseason and in the first 10 quarters of the season, but it has taken a massive step backward. Here’s what’s gone wrong and how TCU can possibly fix it:

What the numbers say

The raw numbers aren’t pretty. The Horned Frogs currently rank No. 15 in the Big 12 in scoring defense at 30.8 points per game. The numbers are worse when you take out TCU’s 45-0 win over Long Island. Without that shutout over an FCS opponent, the Horned Frogs’ scoring defense drops to 37 points and No. 118 in the country.

The biggest problem continues to be the run defense which also ranks No. 15 in the Big 12 at 180.2 yards per game. TCU actually has the second best passing defense in the Big 12, but it’s not about excellence. It’s about teams not needing to pass. Opponents are only averaging 26.2 passing attempts, which ranks just No. 26 in the country. Now compare that to the rushing attempts, where opponents are running the ball 41.6 times per game. That’s No. 115 in the country according to TeamRankings.com.

Beyond that, the Horned Frogs have also struggled situationally. TCU has the worst third down defense in the Big 12 with opponents converting more than 46.7% of their third down attempts. Oftentimes, opponents have been able to keep drives alive on the ground. Red zone defense? Another area of struggle for the Horned Frogs with opponents scoring 90% of the time. Of the 20 drives opponents have had in the red zone, 13 trips have resulted in touchdowns, the third most in the league.

The numbers don’t paint a pretty picture, but let’s dig even deeper.

Defensive line issues?

The trenches are the foundation of any solid defens. Without good to great defensive line play, it’s nearly impossible to field a quality defense. The Horned Frogs’ defensive line has been worn down late in games against run-heavy schemes. One reason is the lack of depth as the unit took a massive hit when Damonic Williams departed the program for Oklahoma. Williams has played the most snaps of interior defensive linemen for the Sooners and has the second highest player grade according to Pro Football Focus.

Meanwhile in Fort Worth, players like Caleb Fox haven’t had the breakout seasons they anticipated. Fox recorded three straight seasons of at least a 64 on his player grade on Pro Football Focus. That number dropped to 56.2 this season. Tymon Mitchell is another defender who’s struggled against the run according to PFF. Markis Deal replaced Mitchell in the starting lineup during the Kansas game.

Would Williams’ presence alone be enough to cure TCU’s run defense? Probably not, but they would surely be better with a potential combination of Williams and Deal. Now the Horned Frogs will have to rely on young players like Deal and Zachary Chapman to take big strides in order for the defense to improve.

At edge rusher, Cooper McDonald has easily been the best player up front while Devean Deal has been solid. Notre Dame transfer Nana Osafo-Mensah hasn’t had the same dominant stretches he displayed during preseason camp as Osafo-Mensah has a 58.3 player grade, compared to 75.0 for McDonald. Lack of depth and true difference maker have plagued TCU this season. While players like Deal and Chapman can become that in the future, the Horned Frogs need them to do it in the next six games.

TCU has also been without Paul Oyewale, who was second on the team in sacks last season. His potential return to the lineup could also provide a boost for TCU against the run.

Is this a Dykes issue?

There are certain programs and coaches that have earned a reputation for always having a great offense or defense like Lincoln Riley at USC or Kirk Ferentz at Iowa. Those coaches have also earned a reputation for not being able to figure out the other side of the ball. It’s fair to wonder if TCU head coach Sonny Dykes in the same category.

If you look at Dykes’ last seven years at SMU and TCU, his teams have always been among the most high-powered scoring offenses, but they’ve also been some of the worst defenses as well. Over the last seven seasons Dykes hasn’t had a defense that finished ranked in the top-25 in scoring defense. What about the top 50? Nope. Top 75? TCU came close to that number in 2022, but Georgia’s 65 points bumped the average up to 29, 91st in the country. The Horned Frogs ranked No. 79 in 2023.

At SMU, Dykes had three straight seasons where the defense allowed 30 points or more per game. The fourth season SMU allowed 28.4. Based on Dykes’ track record, is it possible for a turn around defensively or is this just a part of the Dykes’ experience? A high scoring offense that has to win in shootouts rather than shutting down a team? Shootouts are fun and fans like offense, but TCU has a pedigree of elite defense.

Points are fine, but points without winning is worthless.

What’s next for TCU?

Avalos’ track record at Oregon and Boise State suggests he should be able to field a good defense at some point, but it’s clear TCU’s problems won’t be a quick fix. Avalos has already made one minor change as he moved down from the booth to the field level to call plays, which helped against Kansas, but had little impact against Houston.

There’s not a lot of obvious moves TCU can make after already making a change on the defensive line. The linebackers led by Namdi Obiazor and Johnny Hodges are playing well. JaTravis Broughton has had some tough moments recently, but overall the secondary has been fine, but relatively untested. The injuries to Avery Helm and Vernon Glover could become an issue as TCU faces better quarterbacks.

We can talk about making changes to the scheme or blitzing more, but if TCU is unable to physically win the battle at the line of scrimmage, then it won’t matter. TCU faces two of the top four scoring offenses in the Big 12 plus teams like Oklahoma State and Utah, who have the right personnel to exploit TCU’s weaknesses on defense.

Things may get worse before they get better.