Analysis: Denny Hamlin's first Cup Series championship rides on a coin flip

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin is used to facing twists and turns along what was once a promising championship path.

In 2010, he blew a 33-point lead over four-time defending champ Jimmie Johnson going into the final two races of the season. In 2014, he was passed by Kevin Harvick for the lead with eight laps to go in the first championship race of the elimination era. In 2019, he again led the title race with around 100 laps to go, but roughly 50 laps later his car overheated and he ended up finishing a distant 10th. In both 2020 and 2021, he made the Championship 4, only to be beaten by the faster cars of Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. And, of course, in 2022 he missed the final four because of Ross Chastain‘s “Hail Melon” move.

Now, in 2024, he finds himself yet again on the razor‘s edge — this time to even escape the first round of the Cup Series playoffs. According to my forecast model, which simulates the rest of the playoffs 10,000 times, Hamlin has just a 54 percent chance of advancing into the Round of 12 despite probably being a top-five driver in the sport this year. So this could be yet another disappointment for NASCAR‘s greatest to never win a title — but there is also hope for Denny yet.

Before we get into that, let‘s set the stage with the model‘s odds going into the final race of the Round of 16 at Bristol.

After last Sunday‘s overtime race at Watkins Glen, eight drivers are in a good spot to advance into the next round, with greater than 97 percent odds: Joey Logano (who won in Atlanta), Christopher Bell, Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suárez, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney. Blaney‘s high odds come in spite of a near-immediate wreck to begin the race Sunday. He still has a 29-point cushion in the playoff standings, plus a 60 percent chance of finishing ahead of at least four of the eight drivers below him in the standings at Bristol.

Two more drivers have at least a 92 percent chance to move on — Kyle Larson and William Byron — despite their own troubles early in the playoffs. (Larson finished 37th at Atlanta, while Byron was 34th at The Glen after nearly launching over the fence). Both are at least 25 points on the good side of the cutline right now and should be able to move forward as long as they avoid catastrophic finishes at Bristol.

This means we have at least a pretty decent idea about who 10 of the 12 advancing drivers will be after the transfer race Saturday night. We also have a decent sense that Harrison Burton probably won‘t advance — the model gives him less than a 5 percent chance, as he needs just his second podium finish of the season to even have a 50-50 shot at advancement.

That leaves five drivers between 25 and 54 percent odds to advance, fighting over what is likely just two open spots.

Among those, the best odds belong to Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Hamlin and Ty Gibbs at 54 percent apiece, followed by Chase Briscoe (52 percent after potentially saving his season with a sixth-place finish Sunday), Brad Keselowski (32 percent) and another JGR driver, Martin Truex Jr. (25 percent in his swan song as a Cup Series regular).

Needless to say, the fight between that quintet under the lights at Bristol is going to be compelling (teammates or not). But what makes Hamlin the most intriguing driver in that crucible is not just his status as NASCAR‘s forever-bridesmaid. It‘s that his odds of winning the championship, conditional on advancing, remain as strong as just about anyone‘s.

It‘s just that whole advancing part that still weighs heavily on his overall chances. But the good news for Hamlin is that Bristol is just about the best place for him to stage his last stand.

He has four wins at the track in his career, including each of the past two races held there, and he has the third-best average finish at Bristol of any active driver with at least two career races there. Furthermore, Denny has been the best short-track driver in the Cup Series overall this season, with an Adjusted Points+ Index of 252 — i.e., 152 percent better than average — beating out Elliott (223), Larson (207) and Byron (202) by a wide margin.

This is why Hamlin shows up as by far the best projected driver at Bristol in my track-scouting ratings ahead of Saturday night‘s race. He is set up as well as he possibly could be to deliver a strong performance. And he will need to do just that.

Here‘s a breakdown of Hamlin‘s odds to advance, conditional on different types of finishes at Bristol:

It‘s not exactly a “must-win” for Hamlin (though a win would obviously clinch his spot in the next round). But it is something of a must-top-10. In simulations where Hamlin finishes that high, he makes the second round 93.7 percent of the time. In all other simulations, he advances just 16.2 percent of the time.

In other words, all of the potential of this season — all of the expectations that this would finally be The Year for Hamlin to shed his “Best To Never Win A Championship” label — come down to needing a high finish in a single race at the Last Great Colosseum. If he does that, he‘s back among the favorites; if not, it‘s another case of wait ’til next year.