Analysing the Euro 2025 draw: Danger for England, derbies and drama

The draw for Women’s Euro 2025, which took place in Lausanne on Monday, had all the features we have come to expect from these kinds of events. There was an unnecessary musical performance, a staggering number of former players to conduct a relatively simple procedure, and the usual struggles to unscrew balls quickly.

But then there was something often lacking from men’s international football draws these days: drama.

The expansion of international competitions means the group draws often are not that exciting — there’s minimal likelihood of genuine contenders facing one another. But in the 16-team Women’s European Championship, with around half the sides having a genuine chance of winning the competition — and only two sides from each group progressing to the knockout stage — the draw very much matters.

It also matters more when the host nation isn’t a serious contender. Switzerland wouldn’t be among the favourites to win the competition, but on home soil, they were seeded. And that meant, with the other Pot 1 sides being Spain, Germany and France, everyone wanted to be drawn into Group A.

And the first side drawn into Group A were… Iceland, who were flattered by their status as one of the Pot 2 sides. In other words, the weakest sides from the first two pots were together. That meant, sooner or later, there would be some much more exciting clashes. Iceland were eventually joined by two other Nordic sides, serial underachievers Norway and outsiders Finland. (Norway and Switzerland were also together in Group A at the Women’s World Cup last year, progressing from a poor group after drawing 0-0 with one another — both were eliminated in the first knockout round.)

Elsewhere, even considering that the tournament is almost entirely comprised of western and northern European sides, which meant some meetings of near neighbours were inevitable, the general theme of the draw was about some serious rivalries. Spain and Portugal were together in Group B, alongside Belgium and Italy. Portugal have taken a while to establish themselves in international football, but alongside Belgium and Italy sides who have stagnated in recent years, may fancy their chances of progression.

Group C features two classic footballing rivalries in the first group game: Germany will play Poland, and Denmark will take on Sweden.

Last but not least, there was Group D, with Wales almost inevitably pitted against England in their first European Championship — but more relevantly, in terms of the tournament’s contenders, there was also France and the Netherlands. That means one of the genuine heavyweights at Euro 2025 will be eliminated before the knockout stage. It also means Sarina Wiegman, the manager who has won the past two European Championships with the Netherlands and England respectively, will face her home nation.

In all, it’s difficult not to get the feeling that this is a hugely lopsided draw. The four semi-finalists from Euro 2022 (England, Germany, Sweden and France) and the two finalists from Euro 2017 (Netherlands and Denmark) are all in the bottom half of the draw.

That means the biggest winners here are world champions and Nations League holders Spain. They should have no problems getting through their group, and will inevitably be strong favourites against whichever Group A opponents they’re drawn against in the quarter-final. They will also have more rest days than any of the fearsome Group C or Group D sides, should they reach the final.

But perhaps the lopsided draw is a good thing. Rather than a procession through the group stage for the usual names, there will be hugely intriguing matches from the outset: particularly France vs England in the opening match of Group D.

And, on a logistical level, the organisers seem to have got lucky in terms of the most exciting games being played at the stadiums with the bigger capacities. France vs England, England vs the Netherlands and the Netherlands vs France will all be played in grounds with a capacity of 26,000 or more. At the other end of the scale, the 10,500-capacity stadium in Thun wouldn’t have been suitable for those fixtures, and instead will merely host Iceland vs Finland, Norway vs Iceland and Spain vs Belgium.

Oh, and with Group A being almost as weak as it could possibly have been, hosts Switzerland have a decent chance of progressing to the knockout stage for the first time. In all, this was a very exciting draw, for what should be the most exciting women’s Euros yet.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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