American Pharoah the Preakness favorite, but will Todd Pletcher sabotage his Triple Crown bid?

BALTIMORE — Now that trainer Todd Pletcher has done what he does best – lose the Kentucky Derby, then take his ball and go back to New York – we can begin a serious appraisal of the Preakness Stakes.

That appraisal starts and ends the same way the Derby started and ended: with American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund dominating the picture. They ran 1-2-3 almost the entire 1¼ miles two weeks ago at Churchill Downs, and could do it again Saturday at Pimilico Race Course.

The horses with the best chance to break up the Big Three all officially bypassed Baltimore Tuesday, when Timid Todd dissed the Preakness one more time. A man with four contenders – Materiality, Carpe Diem, Competitive Edge and Stanford – will race none of them. They'll instead point toward the big races in New York this summer – including the Belmont Stakes – which further entrenches Pletcher's position as America's foremost Triple Crown hater.

He doesn't like running in the second leg, and he loves ambushing the third leg. Should American Pharoah win Saturday, Pletcher figures to have multiple rested, capable horses waiting for him at Belmont.

Pletcher has run 43 horses in the Derby and seven in the Preakness, and is far more likely to contest both of the first two legs of the Triple Crown if he's won the Derby (it's happened only once, in 2010, with Super Saver). No single trainer has done more to undermine the Preakness than Pletcher, who should be about as popular in Baltimore as the Pittsburgh Steelers. Without his contingent, just eight horses are in this year's field – the smallest Preakness field in 15 years.

But even without Timid Todd, this Preakness shapes up as a great race. Getting the Big Three here helps immensely.

This is reminiscent of 2007, when top Derby finishers Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin had another showdown in Baltimore, with Curlin beating Derby champion Street Sense by a head. Or 1997, when Silver Charm outdueled Free House and Captain Bodgit in both the Derby and the Preakness.

The trainer of Silver Charm is the trainer of American Pharoah and Dortmund, Bob Baffert. Three times previously he has brought the Derby winner to Baltimore, and three times he has won the Preakness. He's won the race five times overall. He's got this thing pretty well figured out.

Baffert is a big believer that if his horse is dead fit on the first Saturday in May he is likely to remain dead fit on the third Saturday in May. There isn't a whole lot a trainer can do to screw up his animals in that period of time.

"To me, it's the easiest of the three legs," Baffert said. "I think the Derby is the hardest, so once you get through there, you know your horses. If they run well, they're in top form. You have to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby, so once they're in top form, it's just a matter of just getting them [to Baltimore]."

Baffert got them here Tuesday, shipping in from Louisville. Here's how it shapes up for his two horses – and Firing Line – after Wednesday's post-position draw:

Why American Pharoah should win: He was the best horse in Louisville and has been the best 3-year-old all year. And in a smaller field, jockey Victor Espinoza should be able to avoid the wide trip he gave American Pharoah in the Derby.

Coming from well outside in the 18-horse Derby, Espinoza was wise to keep his horse largely clear of traffic by racing to the right of Dortmund and Firing Line. But that meant he went the long way to the wire. According to Trakus, which charts exactly how far horses run in a race, American Pharoah ran 29 feet farther than Firing Line and 69 feet farther than rail-hugging Dortmund. And he still won the race.

If Espinoza can keep his colt from getting pinned to the rail from the No. 1 post Saturday, it should be an easier trip. Also, if a forecast for rain Saturday holds true, American Pharoah is the lone member of the Big Three who's proven he can handle an off track, having danced over the slop in winning the Rebel Stakes in March.

Why American Pharoah might be upset:

Drawing the No. 1 post at least opens up the possibility of disaster – could he be boxed in on the rail? How will he react if he has a lot of dirt thrown in his face for the first time?

Then there's this: Espinoza rode the hair off him in the Derby, smacking him with his whip somewhere from 29 to 33 times, according to my review of the race. He started urging Pharoah earlier than either Dortmund or Firing Line, and it was a grueling stretch battle. American Pharoah prevailed, but how much of himself did he expend in the process? The colt had largely glided through four straight victories leading up to the Derby. He proved his tenacity at Churchill Downs, but at what price? Baffert's dead-fit theory could be challenged by any lingering fatigue.

Why Firing Line might turn the tables: The Preakness is 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Derby, and it wasn't until that final sixteenth that American Pharoah finally put away Firing Line in a tenacious duel. Dialing back that distance might be just the right amount for a horse that has proven to be quite game.

"He's got a very good cruising speed during his races, and I think that should lend itself to a slight cutback in distance," Firing Line trainer Simon Callaghan said. "I think this could be an absolutely perfect distance for him."

Also, Firing Line jockey Gary Stevens said after the Derby that his horse was taxed by basically fighting a war on two fronts in the stretch: Dortmund on the inside and then American Pharoah looming alongside on the outside. Having previously lost in the stretch twice to Dortmund, Firing Line turned the tables on him in Louisville and might have been ridden with less stress than American Pharoah. And even though both Baffert horses have proven riders in Espinoza (five wins in Triple Crown races) and Martin Garcia (won the 2010 Preakness), the 52-year-old Stevens (nine wins in Triple Crown races) might be the best of the three.

Why Firing Line might misfire: He's had three stretch duels as a 3-year-old, and he's 0-for-3. Any reason to expect that to change this time?

Firing Line is accustomed to more rest between races than either American Pharoah or Dortmund, with 43 days between the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the Sunland Derby, then another 41 days between that race and the Kentucky Derby. Wheeling him back in two weeks is a big ask.

Why Dortmund could scuttle the Triple Crown but further the Baffert Crown: The huge, talented horse tends to break well and has natural speed that has allowed him to be forwardly placed in each of his 3-year-old races. Racing luck is unpredictable, but it would be a surprise not to see Dortmund on the lead through the first half of the race again at Pimlico the way he was at Churchill. And the shorter distance may benefit him as well.

Why Dortmund could be relegated to more disappointment: Quite frankly, he had zero excuses in Louisville. The race went his way – on the lead with a moderate pace, on the inside – yet he wasn't up to the task in the stretch.

"He was in a beautiful spot," Baffert said. "When they turned down the back side, I really thought that he was going to win the race."

It would take a surprising reversal of form for Dortmund to beat American Pharoah after losing by a couple of lengths and fading late two weeks ago.

But it would be an even bigger surprise for anyone outside the Big Three to win the Preakness. Especially after Timid Todd Pletcher bailed on the race once again.