Yahoo Sports Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2 prediction, pick: How will rematch unfold at UFC 303?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 303 main event between light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka, which came together on just two weeks’ notice.
Alex Pereira UFC 303 preview
Staple info:
Record: 10-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC
Height: 6’4″ Age: 36 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 79″
Last fight: Knockout win over Jamahal Hill (April 13, 2024)
Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover’s Garage (Danbury, Conn.)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC light heavyweight champion
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ 5x Glory middleweight champion
+ Glory light heavyweight title
+ Pro kickboxing record: 33-7 (21 wins by KO)
+ Amateur kickboxing record: 25-3
+ Brazilian jiiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
^ Superb proprioception and accuracy
+ Devastating left hook and right cross
^ Times splits and counters well
+ Dangerous knees and leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Underhooks, overhooks and separations
+ Shows improved grappling game
+/- 0-1 in MMA rematches (3-3 in kickboxing rematches)
Jiri Prochazka UFC 303 preview
Apr 12, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; UFC fighter Jiri Prochazka during ceremonial weigh ins for UFC 300 at MGM Grand Garden Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Staple info:
Record: 30-4-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC
Height: 6’3″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 80″
Last fight: TKO win over Aleksandar Rakic (April 13, 2024)
Camp: Jetsaam Gym BRNO (Czech Republic)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC light heavyweight champion
+ 2x RIZIN FF light heavyweight champion
+ 2x GFC light heavyweight champion
+ Amateur muay Thai accolades
+ 26 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 23 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Sporadic feints and footwork
^ Shifts stances/deceptive distance closer
+ Accurate right hand
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Hard kicks and knees
+ Serviceable grappling ability
^ Scrambles hard off the bottom
+/- Willing to take damage
+/- 1-0 in MMA rematches
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka point of interest: Striking the second time around
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 11: Alex Pereira of Brazil punches Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic in the UFC light heavyweight championship fight during the UFC 295 event at Madison Square Garden on November 11, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
With Conor McGregor falling out of the main event, the UFC was forced to scramble and, once again, go to the rematch with this second booking between Pereira and Prochazka.
Their first fight was a competitive affair that went down in November of last year. Despite all three judges giving the first round to Prochazka, Pereira was able to compromise his opponent’s legs with kicks that could’ve easily swung the round his way.
That said, Prochazka did well when it came to incorporating level-changing threats to help open up his offensive opportunities on the feet.
Whether it was Prochazka’s patent right hand or a winging uppercut off a fake takedown attempt, the former light heavyweight champion found some success feinting and coming forward with this dynamic at play (as opposed to the usual long karate-style frames and chakra-charging poses he relies on).
Still, this approach didn’t change the fact that Prochazka’s aggression comes with a serious price tag in tow.
After getting back to his feet and the end of the first frame, Pereira was eventually able to get a beat on said aggressive advances and swatted Prochazka out of the proverbial sky with his legendary left hook.
Prochazka appeared to fall onto a desperate single leg in an effort to recover, but follow-up elbows from Pereira briefly separated him from his consciousness, prompting the referee to call an end to the bout.
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Nov 11, 2023; New York, NY, USA; Jiri Prochazka (red gloves) fights Alex Pereira (blue gloves) during UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
With much being made about Prochazka’s potential grappling upside both pre and post-fight, many will be curious to see what happens if this contest returns to that realm.
As stated in my previous breakdown of this fight, Prochazka has made some steady improvements to his wrestling in recent years.
Though most of the said work has typically shown up in the scrambling or defense department, Prochazka did show some offensive savvy when taking down Pereira last November.
Whether Prochazka meant to or not, he was able to make “Poatan” pay for his habit of threatening guillotines to defend takedowns by making him an offer he couldn’t refuse via a head-outside single look. Once able to get Pereira to commit, Prochazka was able to get his lift and clear his hips just enough to stay out of danger.
However, despite getting off some decent shots from topside, Prochazka was unable to hold Pereira down for long.
Utilizing his patent overhook with an assist from the fence, Pereira was able to wall-walk himself back to his feet and find a separation. Still, I wouldn’t discount Prochazka going back to the well with more takedowns this Saturday considering that a more grueling affair arguably favors him on paper.
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka odds:
The oddsmakers and the public are slightly favoring the sitting champion, listing Pereira -142 and Prochazka +112 via FanDuel.
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka prediction, pick
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 11: Alex Pereira of Brazil embraces Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic in the UFC light heavyweight championship fight during the UFC 295 event at Madison Square Garden on November 11, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Whether these two are meeting up in a dark alley or off of a full fight camp, it’s hard to argue that either party should be heavily favored from a betting perspective. That said, I agree with Pereira being the odds-on favorite.
Short-notice intangibles aside, the dynamic of this fight largely remains the same considering the nature of Prochazka.
Although Prochazka has a penchant for finding spectacular knockouts, his victories usually come with comeback caveats attached due to the damage his porous defense allows him to take. And against a fighter like Pereira, taking that much damage is far from advisable.
For that reason, I’ll be siding with “Poatan” again.
Despite not having the most impressive rematch record on paper (3-3 in kickboxing and 0-1 in MMA), Pereira has shown to come into rematches well-prepared for the opponent at hand. In fact, if you go back to rewatch his rematches in kickboxing, there are strong arguments that some of those could’ve been scored the other way.
Moreover, Prochazka has not appeared to adjust much since their last meeting – showing that he still has huge vulnerabilities when it comes to defending his legs.
Seeing Prochazka score an upset knockout wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world, but I’ll pick Pereira to come out on top of the gunfight via a first-round finish.
Prediction: Pereira inside the distance
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka start time, where to watch
Pereira and Prochazka are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET (9:15 p.m. locally in Las Vegas). The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 303.
