Alex Ovechkin now in the driver's seat to pass Wayne Gretzky for NHL scoring record

For anyone who cares to argue that Alex Ovechkin is the greatest scorer in NHL history, that lane is wide open.

Considering the era he’s played in and the quality of goaltending he’s faced, the fact he doesn’t sit atop the all-time goal list doesn’t necessarily detract from that notion. Ovechkin’s 925 adjusted goals are tied for the best mark ever, and he’s not done yet.

Even with that in mind, a far more intuitive way to claim the title of greatest NHL goal scorer ever is to score more goals than anyone else. That’s what Ovechkin has been trying to do for years as he chases Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894 goals.

Despite the Russian sniper’s consistency, Gretzky’s total has always been so daunting that it’s been hard to project he will catch the Great One.

That has changed this season.

Ovechkin finished with 42 goals — his 15th season with 40-plus markers — and now sits just 72 behind Gretzky with 822. It might seem dangerous to assume a guy who will turn 38 in September has that many goals left in him, but the odds appear to be tilted in Ovi’s favor now.

In order to set the record, Ovechkin doesn’t have to do anything unprecedented. Six NHL players have scored more than 72 goals after the age of 38, with modern examples including Jaromir Jagr, Mark Recchi and Teemu Selanne. That trio played well into their 40s, but Ovechkin could do the same if he were so inclined.

He probably won’t have to, though.

While most players’ ability to find the net wanes in their 30s, Ovechkin keeps on tucking pucks away. Below is a comparison between the Washington Capitals star and the all-time goal leader in goals per game from their age-30 to age-37 seasons:

This isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison as Gretzky moved to less offensively explosive teams later in his career and the NHL entered a less favorable era for goal scoring. Meanwhile, Ovechkin has stayed put on a squad built around him and the offensive environment improved as his career progressed.

These numbers suggest Ovechkin hasn’t declined at all, when that’s not entirely true. He doesn’t skate like he used to and he’s no longer a reliable play driver at even strength. That means fewer highlight reel goals off the rush like this iconic goal against the Montreal Canadiens...

… but opportunities to hammer pucks home from the left circle remain plentiful, and he’s still a power-play threat like no other:

There are three more seasons left on Ovechkin’s contract and even if he scores at a career-low rate (0.40 goals per game) he’ll end up with 920 goals — 26 more than Gretzky. He’s been at 0.53 goals per game or better in every season since 2016-17, but we’re trying to bake in some age-related regression — even if he hasn’t shown much so far.

That mini projection assumes he’ll suit up 82 times per season, which may seem aggressive on the surface. But he’s played in 96 percent of Capitals games to this point. Health is likelier and likelier to become an issue the older Ovechkin gets, but his baseline of durability is exceptional.

At this point, predicting the sniper to fall short of the goals record means assuming his scoring rate or availability will decline in a profound way. That’s possible, but he's been holding steady on both counts for years.

Worst comes to worst, Ovechkin could also stay on beyond his current contract to finish the job, but it’s looking more and more like this job is getting done with time to spare. Entering the 2022-23 season, he was a 37-year-old needing more than 100 goals to earn his crown, now he’s looking like the near-inevitable holder of the goal-scoring crown.