AFC playoff picture: Bills clinch No. 2 seed; how Colts loss helps Dolphins, Bengals

The AFC playoff picture is becoming clearer and clearer as the 2024 NFL season winds to a close, but the final spot in the seven-team field won't be decided until Week 18.

The Denver Broncos had a chance to secure the seventh and final spot in the AFC postseason field during their Saturday matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. A victory would have guaranteed the Broncos passage to the postseason while eliminating the Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins.

However, Joe Burrow's Bengals outlasted the Broncos in a 30-24 overtime victory. This result allowed the Colts and Dolphins to tighten the race for the No. 7 seed.

The Colts failed to take advantage of the opportunity. They lost 45-33 to the New York Giants, who entered the day as the lone remaining two-win team in the NFL. That knocked Indianapolis out of playoff contention.

Now, it's just a three-team race for the No. 7 seed, while other teams, like the Buffalo Bills, locked themselves into top seeds for the postseason.

Here's what to know about the AFC playoff picture as Week 17 action winds down.

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AFC playoff picture

Below is a look at where the AFC playoff picture stands with just a few games remaining in Week 17:

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*

2. Buffalo Bills (13-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*

3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*

4. Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners, No. 4 seed)*

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*

6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*

7. Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

There are two notable changes in the AFC playoff picture coming out of Week 17. First, the Bills officially clinched the No. 2 seed in the conference. That guarantees Buffalo home-field advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs at the very least, which could prove beneficial for Josh Allen and Co.

The more impactful development is that the Colts' loss to the Giants eliminated them from playoff contention.

The Colts were a longshot to make the postseason – they needed the Broncos to lose and either the Bengals, Dolphins or both to win out – but the Bengals' win over the Broncos inspired hope that Indianapolis could potentially unseat Denver. After all, the Colts were playing the NFL's easiest schedule over the season's final two weeks while the Broncos were facing one of the league's hardest.

Instead, the Colts lost. That opens the door for either the Dolphins or Bengals to challenge the Broncos if Denver stumbles in its Week 18 game against Kansas City.

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Who will be the AFC's 7 seed in the NFL playoffs?

The Broncos, Dolphins, and Bengals are the three options for the No. 7 seed in the AFC bracket. Below is a look at their chances of making the postseason, per ESPN's live playoff projection model.

• Broncos: 59%

• Dolphins: 21%

• Bengals: 20%

That data is subject to change pending the result of Miami's matchup with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon.

Broncos playoff scenarios

The Broncos will be the AFC's No. 7 seed if either of the following scenarios occurs:

• The Broncos win or tie the Chiefs in Week 18;

• The Dolphins lose or tie one of their last two games AND the Bengals lose or tie against the Steelers in Week 18.

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Dolphins playoff scenarios

The Dolphins will be the AFC's No. 7 seed if the following occurs:

• The Dolphins win their final two games;

• The Broncos lose to the Chiefs in Week 18.

Bengals playoff scenarios

The Bengals will be the AFC's No. 7 seed if this happens:

• The Bengals win in Week 18 against the Steelers;

• The Dolphins lose one of their last two games;

• The Broncos lose to the Chiefs in Week 18.

NFL playoff schedule

The NFL playoffs kick off on Jan. 11 with the league's Super Wild Card Weekend before concluding on Feb. 9 with Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans.

Super Wild Card weekend

All times Eastern

Saturday, Jan. 11

• AFC/NFC wild card game: 1 p.m.

• AFC/NFC wild card game: 4:30 p.m.

• AFC/NFC wild card game: 8 p.m.

Sunday, Jan. 12

• AFC/NFC wild card game: 4:30 p.m.

• AFC/NFC wild card game: 8:15 p.m.

Monday, Jan. 13

• AFC/NFC wild card game: 8:15 p.m.

Divisional round

Saturday, Jan. 18

• AFC/NFC divisional game: 4:30 p.m.

• AFC/NFC division game: 8:15 p.m.

Sunday, Jan. 19

• AFC/NFC divisional game: 3 p.m.

• AFC/NFC divisional game: 6:30 p.m.

NFL conference championship round

Sunday, Jan. 26

• NFC championship game: 3 p.m.

• AFC championship game: 6:30 p.m.

Super Bowl 59

• Date: Feb. 9, 2025

• Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)

• Time: 6:30 p.m.

• TV: FOX

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: AFC playoff picture: How Colts loss helps Dolphins, Bengals