Yahoo Sports Advanced-Data Hints That Ottawa Senators Goalie Leevi Merilainen May Have Staying Power
When Linus Ullmark left the Ottawa Senators' December 22nd game against the Edmonton Oilers with a back injury, his absence could have been a disaster.
Ullmark was in the midst of a heater, the kind the organization envisioned when they traded a 2024 first-round pick and Mark Kastelic to the division rival Bruins. The Swedish goaltender had won seven consecutive starts, including two shutouts, stopping 203 of 207 shots for a .969 save percentage.
The organization was already without Anton Forsberg, who sustained a lower-body injury while warming up for the team's December 14th matchup against the Penguins.
Their respective injuries put the Senators' goaltending depth to the test and thrust Mads Sogaard and Leevi Merilainen into the limelight. Interestingly, Sogaard received the first opportunity to take the ball and run with it following the team's Christmas break. And, had the big Dane played well, Merilainen may never have had the opportunity to enjoy this run of success.
Following last night's 2-0 win against the New York Islanders, Merilainen now boasts a 5-2-0 record in seven appearances this season with an impressive 1.99 goals against average and .925 save percentage.
According to the advanced goaltending data at Evolving-Hockey, Merilainen has stopped 4.56 goals more than expected (GSAx) based on the quality of shots he has faced. Dustin Wolf (13.44 GSAx in 23 games) and the highly regarded Yaroslav Askarov (6.43 in 8 games) are the only rookie goaltenders who have stopped more.
Putting that number into a historical context from the Senators' perspective, Robin Lehner was the only rookie goaltender to post a higher GSAx in the modern statistic era (2007-present). The big Swede posted a 5.16 GSAx in 12 games during the 2012-13 season. The only other rookie goaltender to play more than 120 minutes and post a comparable GSAx was Filip Gustavsson in 2020-21 (3.39 GSAx).
Looking at this franchise's statistical comparables, if these numbers portend future success, playing at this level may bode well for Merilainen's outlook.
What has to be encouraging with Merilainen's play is that his performance does not feel inflated or luck-dependent. He may not be the flashiest goaltender, but his rebound control and ability to absorb shots are impressive. After years of enduring the glove hands of Matt Murray and Joonas Korpisalo, Merilainen's ability to catch pucks through traffic has been cathartic.
Even if there is regression to league norms, the young Finn's emergence as a viable goaltending option is significant for the Senators. The team is currently pressed against the cap ceiling, and with an escalating cap, having a viable internal backup candidate prevents the organization from going into the open market and risk overpaying for a veteran alternative. The Senators can reallocate their cap space to address more important weaknesses on the roster.
Read more articles like this at The Hockey News Ottawa:
Related: Another Injury Setback For Former Ottawa Senator First-Rounder Tyler Boucher
Related: Leevi Merilainen Stays Hot As Ottawa Senators Blank New York Islanders 2-0
