Advance to Victory Lane: Watkins Glen will be pivotal for title contenders

After a hectic opener to the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, several title contenders from Kyle Larson to Chase Briscoe are already searching for top-notch performances to keep their seasons alive past Bristol.

Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) will present a challenge. Drivers and teams will have to change their typical plan of attack at The Glen with the expectations of dramatic tire fall-off via a new compound from Goodyear. Not only will it create potential passing opportunities, but it will also change pit strategy and how teams will handle the point battles.

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Despite the new tire and the fact that Watkins Glen is hosting a playoff race for the first time, Racing Insights projects the circuit’s best road-course ringers to master the eight turns around the 2.45-mile course with Tyler Reddick as the projected winner followed closely behind by the Hendrick duo of Chase Elliott and Larson.

As mentioned earlier, drivers like Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr. — who most of us probably thought were safe bets to make strong playoff runs — find themselves in not-ideal standing positions seeded 10th or lower. Now, there shouldn’t be a whole lot of panic for all of them. With two more races left before four drivers get eliminated, there’s still time to have solid point days or even win to advance, but asking for the next two weeks to go smoothly and almost perfectly feels like a stretch with how unpredictable the playoffs can be.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: Larson’s struggles at Atlanta continued last week, but at The Glen, he’s won two races with five top 10s there in nine starts, and he was the class of the field at Sonoma this year. Falling from first to 10th seed after one playoff race should be plenty of fire for the No. 5 team to go out and compete for a win.

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Bell owns an average finish of sixth on the New York road course, albeit in three Cup starts. Still, Bell has tallied eight top 10s on road courses in the Next Gen era (tied for third-best), and with how consistent his regular-season campaign went in terms of racking up stage wins and top 10s, he should be in the mix

ALEX BOWMAN: Last week, Team Penske was on the radar; this week, it’s watch for Hendrick. The organization has won the last five races at The Glen with three different drivers. Bowman won the Chicago Street Race, has scored the most points on road courses this season and has a chip on his shoulder to silence the chatter about his future in the No. 48 Chevrolet.

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: Playoff spoiler, anyone? Leave it to SVG, who is no stranger to stunning the Cup garage. He’s already rattled off three road-course wins in the Xfinity Series. Plus, Sunday will be a good measurement stick to see how he stacks up to Cup regulars on a course they have regularly seen.

JUAN PABLO MONTOYA: Montoya is back in a Cup ride for the first time since 2014. During his time in NASCAR’s top level, he earned five top 10s at Watkins Glen, including his win in 2010. While he will be getting his first dose of the Next Gen car, you can’t knock his talent behind the wheel of a race car, period, as a two-time Indy 500 winner and seven-time Formula One winner.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR THE GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.