Advance to Victory Lane: There's no place like Kansas Speedway

Editor’s note: Projection updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying.

With a shortened playoff field due to four drivers being eliminated after Bristol, the remaining 12 are still searching for a clear path to the championship. Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 presented by ESPN Bet (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) should provide more light on their journey.

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Following strong showings during practice and qualifying, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports drivers continue to lead the way entering Sunday’s race. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and even Chase Elliott, who will start at the rear, are all projected to finish highly in the Round of 12 opener. Coupled with other playoff drivers — including Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney — predicted to finish strongly, it’s a recipe for what should be another exciting finish.

All of us couldn’t wait to come back to Kansas after witnessing the closest finish in NASCAR Cup history. We sang a similar tune a few weeks ago when it was Atlanta’s turn to provide an encore after its three-wide thriller in February, and that race led to a colossal playoff shakeup.

So, what will we be in store for at Kansas?

In the simplest terms, everything from a playoff spoiler to a 0.001-second margin of victory is in the cards this weekend.

The last four Kansas races have each been thrilling for various reasons. There has been a dramatic, last-lap pass for the win in each of the last two, for starters. While much has already been said about this year’s memorable spring race, just last year we saw another chapter in the storied rivalry between Larson and Hamlin take shape as the No.11 driver made contact with the No. 5 on the backstretch. That race also saw 37 lead changes, a Cup Series record-most for a 400-mile race on a 1.5-mile track.

Last year’s fall race ended with an overtime restart and a mixed bag of race strategies played out in favor of Reddick, who managed to fend off Hamlin in the final two-lap shootout. The 2022 fall race gave us a playoff stunner, with Bubba Wallace playing spoiler and holding off title contenders in the final 40 laps to notch his second Cup win.

Kansas has been full of racing memories, and Sunday’s contest is just another opportunity to add more. It’s hard to predict just how everything will shake out, but it’s safe to say it should be another classic.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

TYLER REDDICK: Last time out in Kansas, Reddick struggled to make ground, but don’t let his spring performance dictate how this weekend goes. Reddick has scored the most points on 1.5-mile tracks this year, with 154 and is the defending race winner.

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman has scored the most points so far in the playoffs (120) and virtually steered clear of any trouble after a chaotic first round. He finished seventh in the spring race and is peaking at the right time of year, pressing for a win.

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Bell is tied with Austin Cindric for the second-most points scored by a playoff driver through the Round of 16 (103). Bell has scored top 10s in the last two Kansas races. Not to mention, Toyota has won four of the previous five races there.

CHASE ELLIOTT: Elliott quietly scored 97 points through the first round (third most by a playoff driver). He’s also scored the third-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this year. It’s also worth pointing out that Hendrick also had the most wins on intermediate tracks in the Next Gen era with eight.

BUBBA WALLACE: Kansas is one of Wallace’s best tracks. Including his 2022 win, he’s finished in the top 10 in three of the five races at Kansas in the Next Gen car. Plus, even though he’s not a playoff driver, he’s still a threat to crack Victory Lane.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR THE HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400 PRESENTED BY ESPN BET

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.