Advance to Victory Lane: Which star kisses the bricks at Indy?

Editor’s note: Projection was updated after practice and qualifying. Notable moves included Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson up one spot. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell each moved down a spot.

With the Cup Series circuit returning to the oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Brickyard 400 on Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, IMS Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), expect the heavy hitters to be in play for a crown-jewel win.

With the Next Gen car debuting at the 2.5-mile oval at IMS, there’s no telling what’s in store for this weekend’s race. The advanced metrics are leaning on the Cup Series’ best drivers to be in the mix. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as past winners of the Brickyard 400 include names like Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Dale Jarrett, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick — proving that in big races, the stars come out to shine.

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The projected top 10 includes past champions and notable names in the sport, all vying for a Brickyard 400 win to be on their resumes.

Racing Insights is giving the nod to Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin as the projected winner. Hamlin has come close to his fourth win of the season, but no cigar just yet. His career numbers of three third-place finishes at IMS and the fact he has five top 10s over the last seven Indy races are a good omen.

However, 2024 Daytona 500 champ William Byron and defending Cup champion Ryan Blaney are predicted to make Sunday’s race a close battle. Both drivers have a chance to make history for their respective organizations on Sunday. For Byron, a win would bring the No. 24 car back to Victory Lane 30 years since Gordon first did it in the inaugural race in 1994 — before making it routine with a record five Brickyard 400 wins. For Blaney, a win would make it the first time since 2018 that Team Penske would have won the Indy 500 and Brickyard 400 in the same year, at the track owned by team proprietor Roger Penske.

You also can’t leave out drivers like Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell. Reddick has moved into the Regular Season Championship conversation with his recent success of four straight top 10s at four very different tracks while gaining 49 tallies on the points lead in recent weeks. Bell has won nine stages this year — a series best — and is four laps away from leading 600 laps for the first time in a season.

Then there’s Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson, two Hendrick Motorsports teammates in a tight battle for the regular-season points lead. Hendrick has a dominant history in the Brickyard 400, winning three of the last nine races at Indy with three different drivers while claiming the most wins (10), top fives (27), top 10s (42), and laps led (1,071) in the crown-jewel event.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH:

BRAD KESELOWSKI: Keselowski is one of three drivers entered in Sunday’s race who has won at the Brickyard. He also has three top-five finishes in the last four Indy races. Keselowski even netted a seventh-place finish at Pocono, a comparable track to Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

JOEY LOGANO: There’s no doubt Team Penske will want to show out for ‘The Captain’ Roger Penske at the track he owns. Team Penske has been firing on all cylinders of late, with its drivers winning four of the last seven races. Logano owns seven top 10s on the Indy oval since 2013, and his worst finish was 13th in that period.

ROSS CHASTAIN: Chastain needs a solid weekend at Indy. He moves to being on the bubble and is only 27 points ahead of Bubba Wallace in the fight for the final playoff spot. It’s a tight battle as the drivers ranked 14th to 16th in the playoff standings are only separated by 40 points.

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman’s career numbers may not jump off the page at IMS, but the No. 48 driver is having a career year. He finished third at Pocono last week after winning Chicago, and it seems as if the team has found its stride and speed at the right time of the season.

KYLE BUSCH: Busch has two wins and six top 10s at Indy from 2013-2020. While 2024 has been a trying year for him, his veteran experience will certainly come into play this week. Plus, needing a win to keep his playoff hopes and his 19-season win streak alive is extra fuel to Rowdy’s fire.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR THE BRICKYARD 400

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.