Advance to Victory Lane: Who will rise to the occasion at Phoenix?

Editor’s note: Race projection updated after practice and qualifying sessions.

And then there were four.

Thirty-five races have led us here, and with the Championship 4 contenders now set, it‘s going to be a fight to the checkered flag on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, Peacock).

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The value of experience, momentum and performance in the clutch is simply not quantifiable, but those qualities can’t be counted out when you stack up the four drivers vying for a Cup Series title. Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick and Willliam Byron have each demonstrated one or more of those qualities several times throughout this season.

With the final contest being in the desert oasis at Phoenix, it most likely puts a smile on each of the driver’s faces. Logano has won there three times, while Byron is the only other driver to win there, too. Blaney has three runner-up finishes and netted top 10s in the last eight Phoenix races. As for Reddick, he’s finished third there twice and recorded a top-10 finish at the track this past spring. In the simplest terms, expect all four contenders to not just run well on Sunday, but they might be running next to one another when comes down to the wire.

Let’s not waste any more time, because come Sunday it will be 265 days since the 2024 Daytona 500 and since then, we have all waited for the moment when one of these drivers will be crowned champion.

THE CHAMPIONSHIP 4

RYAN BLANEY: Similar to his stats at the Virginia short track, Blaney is top-tier around Phoenix Raceway. Not only does he have the best finish out of the four drivers from the spring race, but he has the best career average finish out of all of them at this circuit at 10.9. For comparison, Blaney’s teammate in the finale, Logano, has 31 starts at Phoenix and has recorded eight top fives, 16 top 10s, 908 laps led and five stage wins. As for Blaney, in 17 starts there, he has eight top fives, 12 top 10s, 431 laps led and four stage wins, almost on pace to surpass Logano’s numbers in a handful of races. He’s not just consistent at Phoenix, he’s a threat to win there almost every time.

JOEY LOGANO: Logano’s last outing at Phoenix was rough. His day ended early after contact with John Hunter Nemechek and was scored 34th. Safe to say after being the first team locked in, the No. 22 was probably quick to forget what happened in the spring and went right to mapping out a similar plan they had in 2022. Giving anyone a two-week advantage is scary; giving it to Logano and his crew chief Paul Wolfe is downright dangerous. So much has already been said about this team lacking a consistent pace, but when it’s time to perform and deliver on the biggest stages Logano is no stranger to answering the call.

TYLER REDDICK: So many times this postseason the Regular Season Champion has stared elimination in the face and he’s yet to blink. This year, Reddick has transcended into a superstar. He’s matched his career-high win total for a season (three), set new career highs in top-five finishes (12), top 10s (20) and will finish in the top four in points for the first time in his career no matter what. It’s easy to say his lack of experience will keep him from winning the title, but when you drive for an NBA Hall of Famer in Michael Jordan the expectation is a championship, plus Jordan was 28 years old when got his first — same age as Reddick now.

WILLIAM BYRON: Speaking of this year’s Daytona 500, the winner of it is here. So many numbers and stats point to Byron having an advantage, and rightfully so. He was the first driver to three wins this season and while he stalled out in summer months, in the playoffs he’s been the best of the four. With seven top 10s, an average running position of 7.48 and an average finish of 9.3, he’s frankly been red-hot since the playoff opener at Atlanta. Byron also has run 1,058 laps in the top five at Phoenix in the Next Gen era; the closest title contender is Blaney at 749 laps. But it doesn’t just stop there, on pit road Byron also has the slightest advantage over the others and that may just be the difference when it’s all said and done.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR THE NASCAR CUP SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP RACE

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.