Advance to Victory Lane: Who gains the advantage after Nashville?

Editor’s note: The projected finish has been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions. The top four remains unchanged, but Brad Keselowski moved up into fifth place while Ross Chastain dropped from sixth to ninth. Ty Gibbs moved up from 10th to eighth.

After Christopher Bell prevailed in the wet weather at New Hampshire, he matched William Byron, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson with three wins this season — marking the first time ever that four drivers have three wins through the first 18 races. Bell, Byron, Hamlin and Larson all eye Music City as a chance to break the four-way tie and gain control of the standings as the regular season comes to a close.

It also bodes well that both Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have a history of success at Nashville Superspeedway. A win for either organization would add a jolt of momentum, especially with the playoffs around the corner and both organizations hunting for a championship.

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Racing Insights gives the edge to the JGR duo of Hamlin and Bell on the concrete track at Nashville, but the Hendrick challengers in Larson and Byron aren’t too far behind in the early projections.

Looking at Hamlin, he’s won the last three races on concrete, and he’s finished sixth or better and led over 80 laps in the last two races at Nashville. All signs point to why he’s the favored driver entering Sunday’s Ally 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC, NBC Sports App, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). A strong run for Hamlin could be just what the No. 11 team needs before the postseason starts; after a runner-up finish at Gateway, his best finish was 24th in the next three races.

As for the other three-win drivers, Bell and Larson have finished in the top 10 in all three Cup contests in Nashville. Larson has an average finish of 3.33 at the track, and his 754 laps led this year are the most in the Cup Series. Bell is riding a hot hand with two wins and five top-10 finishes in the last five races. And while Byron has been quiet since his red-hot start to the season, the No. 24 driver is still arguably the best in the Next Gen era and has two top 10s at Nashville.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

ROSS CHASTAIN: Chastain is currently in the playoff picture on points, but it never hurts to have a win at this point in the season. Nashville seems to be his bread and butter, finishing in the top five in all three races there, including a win at the track last year.

RYAN BLANEY: It’s worth pointing out that three of the four drivers with three wins made up last year’s Championship 4. Blaney has shown true speed — just has been unlucky at the end of races. Blaney finished third at Nashville in 2022, so a win isn’t out of the question for him.

ERIK JONES: Jones showed speed last year at Nashville, earning an eighth-place finish. He also just missed the top 10 the year before, making him a solid wild-card pick this week.

DANIEL SUÁREZ: It could be a strong weekend for both Trackhouse Racing teams. In Suárez’s three starts at Nashville, he’s never finished worse than 15th.

COREY HEIM: With Silly Season in full swing, Heim has turned heads in both the Truck and Xfinity Series with solid performances. Not only will Sunday be his third Cup start, but it’s also an audition for teams looking for a driver next season.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR ALLY 400

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.