From Aaron Bradshaw to D.J. Wagner, what are expectations for UK basketball’s transfers?

cameron drummond

Wed, Aug 21, 2024, 7:05 a.m.·7 min read

A new men’s college basketball season continues to inch closer.

With Tuesday afternoon’s release of the SEC men’s basketball schedule, the task is now fully set for Mark Pope’s debut season as the Kentucky basketball coach.

But as the most action-packed offseason in UK basketball history nears an end, let’s not forget about those former Wildcats who will be suiting up elsewhere around the country next season.

Specifically, it’s worth circling back to the seven ex-Cats who were part of John Calipari’s final Kentucky basketball squad in the 2023-24 season.

The likes of Aaron Bradshaw (Ohio State), Jordan Burks (Georgetown), Joey Hart (Ball State), Zvonimir Ivisic (Arkansas), Ugonna Onyenso (Kansas State), Adou Thiero (Arkansas) and D.J. Wagner (Arkansas) all hit the transfer portal and left Lexington following the Calipari-to-Pope coaching transition.

What are projections for these former UK players at their new homes?

According to college basketball statistician Evan Miyakawa, two players from this group stand out when it comes to what should be expected of them in the 2024-25 season.

Bradshaw, the 7-foot-1 big man now at Ohio State, and Wagner, the 6-foot-4 guard who followed Calipari to Arkansas, are the clear highest-rated players who left Kentucky via the transfer portal.

Per Miyakawa’s Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) metric — which he uses on his website, EvanMiya.com, to measure “a player’s overall value to his team when he is on the floor” — Bradshaw and Wagner both ranked in the top 50 among the nearly 1,900 college players who entered the portal.

Wagner leads the way with a projected BPR of 5.06 next season at Arkansas. This mark ranks 34th among all portal players. Bradshaw wasn’t far behind with a projected BPR of 4.77 for next season with the Buckeyes, which ranks 45th among all portal players.

The only other ex-Cat with a BPR that ranked in the top 100 of the players who entered the portal was Ivisic, the 7-foot-2 Croatian sensation who has a projected BPR of 4.02 next season with the Razorbacks. That BPR is the 92nd-best among portal players.

(BPR is measured as the number of points per 100 possessions better than the opponent a player’s team is expected to be if the player were on the court with nine other average players).

The remaining ex-Cats who went elsewhere this offseason stack up like this, according to Miyakawa’s projected BPR for each player at their new school:

▪ Adou Thiero: BPR of 3.63 (125th among portal players).

▪ Ugonna Onyenso: 2.77 (228th).

▪ Jordan Burks: 1.26 (498th).

▪ Joey Hart: 0.06 (871st).

Miyakawa told the Herald-Leader that there is “always going to be a pretty sizable predicted step up in performance level” for former five-star recruits who stick around in college beyond their freshman season.

Bradshaw, the No. 4-ranked recruit in the 2023 class by the 247Sports Composite, and Wagner, the No. 6-ranked recruit, both fit the bill.

“That’s a part of my modeling, that’s something that I’ve seen a lot for a lot of players,” Miyakawa said. “I’m fascinated by guys like D.J. Wagner and Aaron Bradshaw, especially because, you know, they were some of the most highly touted freshmen last year and, relatively speaking, they under-performed.”

Kentucky’s Aaron Bradshaw averaged 4.9 points and 3.3 rebounds in 13.8 minutes per game last season at Kentucky. Bradshaw is now at Ohio State for his sophomore season.

Why are Aaron Bradshaw, D.J. Wagner projected to do well at new schools?

When speaking to the Herald-Leader, Miyakawa cited several former top recruits when explaining how a change of scenery, along with another year of college experience, can translate to a breakout season.

Harrison Ingram (two seasons at Stanford before spending last season at North Carolina), Hunter Sallis (two seasons at Gonzaga before going to Wake Forest) and Kel’el Ware (one season at Oregon before transferring to Indiana) were all cited by Miyakawa as examples last season of five-star prospects who became standout players after a transfer.

“There’s just a natural part to this where, especially guys who are five-star freshmen, who have an underwhelming year and transfer, more often than not, they’re much better in their second season,” Miyakawa said.

For Bradshaw and Wagner, there are reasons to believe both players can reach their ceilings at their new schools.

Bradshaw — who averaged 4.9 points and 3.3 rebounds per game last season at Kentucky — missed the entire 2023 offseason and preseason at UK while recovering from a foot injury. He didn’t make his on-court debut for the Cats until early last December.

In just his second college game, Bradshaw had 17 points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots in a win over Penn, although his role steadily diminished for UK as the season went on. Bradshaw played just four minutes — scoring three points, grabbing three rebounds and blocking a shot, while also being whistled for three fouls — in Kentucky’s season-ending loss to Oakland in the NCAA Tournament first round.

Wagner, who averaged 9.9 points and 3.3 assists in 25.8 minutes per game at UK last season, had plenty of positives as Kentucky’s starting point guard.

But, consistent offensive production wasn’t one of them. In that season-ending defeat to Oakland, Wagner scored no points and went 0-for-5 shooting from the field.

Wagner also dealt with an ankle injury for the majority of the 2023-24 season, an injury that kept him out of several contests.

All of this contributed to an underwhelming end-of-season assessment for Wagner. Per Miyakawa’s metrics, Wagner’s season-ending BPR of 1.74 for the 2023-24 campaign ranked 937th in the nation (among players with at least 500 possessions played).

“The fact that I have (Wagner) rated as the 34th-best transfer has almost everything to do with his unreached potential that his high school recruiting profile points to,” Miyakawa said. “So I still think that those players are, especially Wagner and Bradshaw, going to take a step up because that’s typically what you see.”

Kentucky’s D.J. Wagner averaged 9.9 points and 3.3 assists in 25.8 minutes per game last season with the Wildcats. Wagner followed former UK coach John Calipari to Arkansas this offseason.

Bradshaw, Wagner aren’t the only former five-star recruits who transferred

Miyakawa’s answers suggest that, at least when looking at projections, there’s a strong correlation between a player’s high school recruiting ranking and what’s expected from that player if they choose to transfer schools.

“That definitely plays a huge part of my algorithm, because there’s a part that looks at — especially if you’re a younger player — how much potential is there, kind of untapped, based on how you were regarded coming out of high school,” Miyakawa added. “More often, that kind of plays true to them massively improving in their second or third season.”

Bradshaw and Wagner weren’t the only former five-star recruits on the move this offseason.

In addition to those ex-Cats, five other five-star prospects from the 2023 class (per the 247Sports Composite) chose to transfer colleges.

That group includes forward Omaha Biliew (Iowa State to Wake Forest), forward Sean Stewart (Duke to Ohio State), guard Aden Holloway (Auburn to Alabama), forward TJ Power (Duke to Virginia) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (Stanford to California).

From this group, the player with the highest-projected BPR is Holloway, whose projected BPR of 5.87 for next season ranks 11th among portal players. Last season, Holloway averaged 7.3 points and 2.7 assists per game for an Auburn team that was a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Along with these transfers, seven other five-star recruits from the 2023 class are staying at their original school for their sophomore seasons.

Those players are forward Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana), guard Elliot Cadeau (North Carolina), forward Xavier Booker (Michigan State), forward Kwame Evans Jr. (Oregon), guard Caleb Foster (Duke), guard Elmarko Jackson (Kansas) and guard Jackson Shelstad (Oregon).

Of this group, only Cadeau — with a BPR of 5.74 — ranked in the top 100 (73rd) of all college players last season. At North Carolina last season, Cadeau averaged 7.3 points and 4.1 assists per game for a UNC squad that reached the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.