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5 Insights and Observations: These NHL stars are in line for a major pay raise next summer
Several star players on expiring deals are putting together electric opening acts to their campaigns.
Welcome to 5 insights and observations. Every week, I’ll use this space to highlight teams, players, storylines and general musings around the NHL.
This week we look at contract years, Sean Monahan’s resurgence, the Kraken’s shooting percentage coming back to reality, Sean Durzi emerging and penalty shots going up.
Stars making good while on expiring deals
There’s nothing quite like a contract year when it comes to a player's ability to show agency. It's your final season before hitting unrestricted free agency and your final opportunity to drive the market up for your services. Even if you've had an up-and-down career to that point, a contract year almost always positions you for a big payday.
The current poster boy for putting together — and cashing in on — a huge walk year has to be Nazem Kadri. The forward notched a career-high 87 points with the Colorado Avalanche in his final year there, having never eclipsed 61 before that, then won the Stanley Cup while chipping in another 15 points in 16 in that run. Kadri then parlayed turned that into a huge seven-year, $49-million contract.
The final year of a contract is also a great motivation tool and for teams, though it’s always a buyer-beware situation. Still, it is always worth keeping an eye on who is seeing an uptick in production right as their contract is about to expire. We aren’t saying these are players to beware of, but they are players on expiring contracts who are off to strong starts.
William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs): Has picked up 14 points in 10 games, a 1.4 point per game average. His career average is .84 and his previous career high is 1.06 from a season ago.
Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers): Lighting the lamp with eight goals in nine games to start the year. His carer high in a season is 33, while his highest points per game output is 1.05 — he's at 1.38 to start this season.
Brady Skjei (Carolina Hurricanes): The blueliner has 7 points in 11 games to start — good for .7 points per game. He has a career average of .38 and a single-season high of .49 from his rookie year.
Tyler Toffoli (New Jersey Devils): At 1.22 points per game to start the season, with his previous career high at .89 points per game
Sean Monahan is back in form
It has been a tough few years for Sean Monahan. The former top-line center of the Calgary Flames saw his minutes reduced drastically in his final season with the Flames, averaging a career-low 14:04 and putting up a career-worst 23 points in 65 games before undergoing season-ending hip surgery.
The following offseason, Monahan was traded alongside a conditional first to clear space to sign Kadri (that hasn’t worked well at all) to the Montreal Canadiens. Upon his arrival, Monahan played reasonably well with 17 points in 25 games before suffering a foot injury. Then, while rehabbing his foot, he hurt his groin and had to undergo groin surgery. That leaves the Brampton, Ont. native with surgery on both hips and his groin by age 29, leaving lingering questions about how much gas he has left in the tank.
Well, if the first month is any indication, apparently he has plenty. Pivoting a line between Brendan Gallagher and Tanner Pearson, the trio has been dominating to the tune of a 60 percent shot attempt share while outscoring opponents 5-0 at 5v5.
Monahan is averaging over 4 minutes per game on the power play and nearly 2 and a half minutes per game shorthanded, leaving him third among all Habs forwards in time on ice per game. With nine points in 10 games to start the season, he's flashing real playmaking ability and confidence with the puck again. Look at this cut in and rip here, coming down the wing with speed, walking in and scoring with confidence.
On the power play, he’s continuing to redefine himself to some degree as a net front player.
Only a few years ago, Monahan’s ability to contribute and overall career trajectory were seriously in doubt. It’s frankly mind-boggling that he’s not even 30 yet. However, the forward is showing that when healthy, he has a ton left to offer.
A dramatic reversal of fortune has the Kraken stumbling
Last season, the Seattle Kraken were second in the league in all-situations shooting percentage. It was arguably the biggest reason for their success, culminating in their first ever playoff appearance and a first-round series win. 13 players scored at least 13 goals, something no other team could claim, as they finished fourth in goals per game.
This season, however, has been a different story entirely, as the Kraken have come crashing back down to earth. Seattle ranks in the bottom five in shooting percentage and just outside the bottom five in goals per game.
Technically, they only lost two of those 13 goal scorers from last season, Daniel Sprong who had 21, and Ryan Donato who had 14, but they replaced that pair with Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Kailer Yamamoto, which is a downgrade in scoring. Their biggest issues are at the top of their lineup, however. Brandon Tanev has played all of 10 minutes and two seconds this season due to injury, while Andre Burakovsky is going to be out for six to eight months. Most notable is Matty Beniers, who has struggled to start the season with three points in 10 games — all assists.
Some of that should naturally regress — Beniers is not about to play a full season and go goalless — but this is a team that needs production across four lines to score enough to win games. Through 11 games, only three players have scored three or more goals.
The high shooting percentage and a deep collection of players who all had productive seasons were always going to be the story for the Kraken. This isn’t a team that relies on top-end stars to carry the mail to succeed. Now, the question is whether this is a slow start, or if the scoring has totally dried up.
The Sean Durzi breakout has arrived
In 2017 Sean Durzi was passed over by all (then) 31 teams in the draft. Even then, he was an offensive defenseman who put up a modest two goals and 38 points in 60 games in his draft year, a steep drop from the 10 goals and 45 games he put up the season before that for Owen Sound.
Not to be discouraged, Durzi came back and was a force the following season in the OHL, putting up 49 points in 40 games earning a nod as the second best offensive defenseman in the league behind Evan Bouchard. His exploits were ultimately rewarded as he was drafted by his hometown Maple Leafs 52nd overall in 2018. He never got to play for them though as he was traded the following year to the Los Angeles Kings as a key piece in the trade that brought Jake Muzzin to Toronto.
Durzi went on to spend time in the AHL, but after a goal and an assist in his debut with the Kings in his first NHL game — which came against his hometown Maple Leafs funny enough — he hasn't looked back. Last season with Los Angeles, the blueliner had nine goals and 38 points in 72 games, but as the Kings bolstered their top four at the deadline by trading for Vladislav Gavrikov, Durzi saw his playing dwindle to just 16 minutes per game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, nearly four minutes lower than his regular season average.
There are real defensive reasons for that. At 5v5, his pairing with Matt Roy had good underlying numbers but was outscored 35-44 and it wasn’t just luck. Risky plays pushing for offense, avoidable mistakes, and lapses in coverage were evident. With a logjam on the back end, the Kings opted to move on from Durzi this summer for a second-round pick, with Arizona the beneficiary and happy to provide more opportunity for the offensively gifted rearguard.
It’s very early, to be clear, but so far Durzi is tied for the league lead in goals by defensemen. That includes this highlight reel goal against Drew Doughty (apparently if you trade him, he’s going to score against you).
Durzi is the full package offensively. An effortless skater, he boasts a big shot from the point and the skill to make plays with the puck. He also utilizes a toe drag move he pulls out against defenders that go fishing against him. He’s averaging a career-high 22:31 so far and does not look out of place in those minutes alongside JJ Moser.
His development has been a long and winding road, but Durzi is emerging as a key player on an upstart Coyotes team now.
A shift in thinking on penalty shots
For many years, NHL officiating has operated on an unwritten rule that if a player is on a breakaway, gets obstructed, but gets the shot off, a penalty is called instead of a penalty shot.
As a fan, it was maddening — penalty shots are exciting! This season, however, something seems to have changed. Through October there have already been 13 penalty shots, compared to a total of 50 awarded last year and a meagre 34 called during the 2021-22 season. As for the difference, take a look at some of these calls:
Sean Couturier gets a clean shot off and play actively continues after. He doesn't go down at any point on the play, either.
Same concept here with Ovechkin. The number of times these types of plays are called a penalty instead of a penalty shot is incalculable. One more, for good measure, in overtime.
Jack Eichel points for the penalty shot right away, but he gets a shot off and Nick Suzuki doesn't exactly haul him down. This one also comes during the extra frame, when referees generally call the game more conservatively.
For reference, here is the official rule:
A penalty shot will be awarded for the following acts:
When a player is fouled while on a breakaway, and the situation meets the following five criteria:
The puck carrier is in the Neutral or Attacking Zone.
The puck carrier has possession and control of the puck.
The puck carrier has no other opposing players to pass (other than the goaltender).
The puck carrier is tripped or fouled from behind, or fouled by the goaltender.
The puck carrier must be denied a reasonable scoring opportunity.
This is a welcome change for the league, and I hope it continues. A breakaway being altered should be called a penalty shot. That is what the rulebook says.
