Yahoo Sports 2025 NFL Playoffs quarterback rankings: From C.J. Stroud to which MVP frontrunner at No. 1?
After 18 weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the 2025 NFL Playoffs are set to begin.
As expected, the vast majority of the 14 teams to make it to the second season are ones with franchise quarterbacks entrenched in a league that still values passing above all else. Some enter January with a chance to prove themselves as winners. Others are trying to rekindle past glory. A few are trying to turn their MVP candidacy into something more -- especially against the backdrop of Super Bowl droughts in Buffalo and Detroit.
We know who'll be playing when the Wild Card round kicks off (and who'll join them a week later in the Divisional Round after a bye). But which team rests its world championship hopes on the sturdiest shoulder?
In order to rank these players, I put together a basic formula that combines advanced stats, basic stats, their histories and the way you feel watching them play. All 14 quarterbacks were sorted across seven categories:
expected points added (EPA) per dropback
completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which rates their connection success vs. what an average quarterback would be expected to make
passer rating
QBR
playmaking ability -- for simplicity's sake, this was totaled by counting the number of games in which each quarterback had a completion of at least 35 yards and the games in which he had a run of at least 15 yards
playoff wins
and gut feeling -- effectively how confident I am about them in the playoffs after a decade of covering the NFL.
Who came out on top? It was a three-way battle, but one quarterback stood tall above the rest.
14. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
EPA rank: 14
CPOE rank: 14
Gut feeling rank: 12
Passer rating rank: 14
QBR rank: 14
Playmaker rank: 10
Playoff win rank: 9
Total: 87
Explaining this rank to someone in the early days of 2024 would be difficult. But after Houston's offensive line imploded and the Texans once-deep receiving corps was shredded by injury, the reigning offensive rookie of the year backslid significantly.
Stroud exploded onto the scene with 35.3 EPA as a rookie. That number dropped to -42.3 this fall as his sack rate climbed and his air yards per completion -- the average distance one of his catches traveled beyond the line of scrimmage -- fell from 7.4 (best in the NFL) to 6.1 (13th). Still, a weak AFC South offers the chance to write his own redemption arc at the end of his sophomore season.
13. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
EPA rank: 12
CPOE rank: 12
Gut feeling rank: 14
Passer rating rank: 13
QBR rank: 12
Playmaker rank: 2
Playoff win rank: 11
Total: 76
Nix took home last place in the gut feeling and playoff win categories due to his status as a rookie. Maybe that's unfair, since he started four bowl games over the course of five college seasons at Auburn and Oregon.
The well-traveled postseason debutante has been exactly what the Broncos needed. He's a high floor quarterback with a 29:8 touchdown:interception ratio his last 14 games. But he's also a dynamic playmaker who has racked up more big gains through the air and on the ground than any other quarterback in the playoffs besides Lamar Jackson. The fact he's doing all this with a limited receiving corps is wonderful news for Denver's future -- but it could also limit how far he can take the Broncos in 2025.
12. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
EPA rank: 13
CPOE rank: 4
Gut feeling rank: 13
Passer rating rank: 10
QBR rank: 13
Playmaker rank: 10
Playoff win rank: 2
Total: 65
Wilson's revival was a nice story. Let's check in how he's performed over the last month.
Wilson's -0.2 EPA/dropback is 32nd best among quarterbacks to play at least 64 snaps in that span. The only player he's been better than is Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Despite an early surge, the Steelers are once again left to limp into the postseason with a below average quarterback and a defense taxed with picking up the slack.
11. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
EPA rank: 11
CPOE rank: 13
Gut feeling rank: 4
Passer rating rank: 11
QBR rank: 9
Playmaker rank: 10
Playoff win rank: 4
Total: 62
Stafford's ranking took a hit due to circumstances outside his control. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp each missed extended time. The offensive line in front of him was ravaged by injury. By October, the Rams looked cooked.
They weren't, of course, Stafford's play is a big reason why. He went 9-2 as a starter after a 1-4 stretch, thriving in a gameplan that took the pressure off his rebuilt offensive line with an array of short passes that capitalized on the veteran's processing time and decision making.
He's also got a stellar postseason record that should earn him the benefit of the doubt. He led the Rams to a Super Bowl after the 2021 season. Last January, he threw for 367 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 24-23 loss to the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card round. He may sit outside the top 10 here thanks to lackluster 2024 numbers, but he's capable of being the best quarterback in the playoffs.
10. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
EPA rank: 10
CPOE rank: 5
Gut feeling rank: 9
Passer rating rank: 5
QBR rank: 11
Playmaker rank: 9
Playoff win rank: 11
Total: 60
Darnold can't win comeback player of the year in 2024 thanks to the AP's rules -- he isn't coming back from anything that kept him from the field in 2023 other than the 49ers' depth chart -- but he's undoubtedly been one of the best stories of the year. The discarded Jet/Panther/Niner stepped into a starting role vacated by J.J. McCarthy's knee injury and led Minnesota to 14 wins while playing the best football of his career.
His checkered past dropped him down the ranks thanks to zero playoff wins and a gut feeling marred by a disheveled Week 18 performance against the Lions. Darnold has done a great job maximizing his playmakers, leaning on Justin Jefferson and pushing Jordan Addison another step toward stardom. His breakthrough season featured three fourth quarter comebacks and five total game-winning drives.
That leaves him entirely capable of outplaying this ranking. Even if the history of the Minnesota Vikings as a franchise suggests heartbreak is waiting in the shadows.
9. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
EPA rank: 5
CPOE rank: 11
Gut feeling rank: 10
Passer rating rank: 9
QBR rank: 4
Playmaker rank: 8
Playoff win rank: 9
Total: 56
Love is two quarterbacks rolled into one. The first is the guy who struggles under pressure, forces balls into traffic and throws across his body in big moments. The second is the one who puts up an MVP pace by finding open targets downfield and lofting high-risk throws through tight windows for game-changing gains.
His first playoff experience put both guys on display. Love roasted the Dallas Cowboys before shrinking against the San Francisco 49ers. 2024 proved to be more of the same -- a weak start hampered by injury, a dramatic rise around the time Toyotas went on sale and now a Wild Card start with something to prove. At his best, he's a devastating presence. At his worst, well, maybe Josh Jacobs can run for 200 yards.
8. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
EPA rank: 9
CPOE rank: 9
Gut feeling rank: 6
Passer rating rank: 6
QBR rank: 8
Playmaker rank: 6
Playoff win rank: 11
Total: 55
How much stock should we put in Herbert's lone playoff start -- the one where he oversaw a Chargers collapse after taking a 30-0 second quarter lead vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars? He underwhelmed in Florida that evening, but he was also being coached by an overmatched Brandon Staley. Now he's got a steady hand at the wheel in Jim Harbaugh, which paves the runway for takeoff despite a relatively weak receiving corps.
Herbert is throwing the ball roughly five times fewer per game than he did in 2023 thanks to Harbaugh's run-heavy approach. This has helped maximize his talent, as his passer rating and yards per attempt have each hit career highs and his 0.6 percent interception rate leads the NFL. The young QB has been underrated and overlooked on a sloppy team; the 2025 NFL Playoffs give him the chance to prove he's elite.
7. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EPA rank: 4
CPOE rank: 6
Gut feeling rank: 8
Passer rating rank: 3
QBR rank: 10
Playmaker rank: 14
Playoff win rank: 6
Total: 51
Mayfield is the quarterback of record for the Cleveland Brown's lone playoff win since 1995. That on its own should bump him up a notch or two.
He followed a tumultuous path before landing on his feet as Tom Brady's successor in Tampa. He was good in 2023, but he's been great this season. Mayfield's 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes are both career highs and both top three marks in the NFL this season.
He's also been prone to implosion. He had five games with multiple interceptions in 2024, including against the non-threatening defenses of the Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers. He got out-dueled by a diminished Kirk Cousins twice. That's juuuuust enough to keep him outside the circle of trust.
6. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
EPA rank: 6
CPOE rank: 7
Gut feeling rank: 11
Passer rating rank: 8
QBR rank: 3
Playmaker rank: 3
Playoff win rank: 11
Total: 49
Daniels's spot in the top half of these rankings is a testament to how good his rookie season has been. He led Washington to its most wins since 1991 (!) despite a receiving corps led by Terry McLaurin (great), Noah Brown, Zach Ertz and Olamide Zaccheaus (less great). He also doubled as the team's leading rusher (891 yards), paving the way for a big playmaker score.
Now comes his greatest challenge; surviving playoff defenses. Washington fielded a below-average defense of its own this fall, suggesting Daniels may have to fire his way through a series of shootouts to bring the Commanders to Super Bowl 59. That's a big ask for a postseason debutante with a sore knee that kept him from the final half of his Week 18 tilt with the Cowboys. Still, he's a dual-threat game changer who may still have a gear we've yet to see.
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
EPA rank: 7
CPOE rank: 8
Gut feeling rank: 1
Passer rating rank: 12
QBR rank: 6
Playmaker rank: 7
Playoff win rank: 1
Total: 42
Doubting Mahomes is stupid, as proven by the 15 playoff wins on his resume before age 30. Despite a backslide in 2024 his Chiefs still went 15-1 in his starts. He hasn't turned the ball over since before Thanksgiving and his offense climbed back into the top 10 when it comes to EPA per play over the last third of the season (not counting Carson Wentz's Week 18 start).
Only one team has beaten Mahomes this season -- the Buffalo Bills, who've also lost to him three of the last four playoffs. The 2024 numbers may not be on Mahomes's side, but everything about his NFL career certainly is.
4. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
EPA rank: 8
CPOE rank: 1
Gut feeling rank: 7
Passer rating rank: 4
QBR rank: 7
Playmaker rank: 4
Playoff win rank: 6
Total: 37
The good news is the Eagles don't need Hurts to carve up defenses through the air to win; Saquon Barkley's presence in the backfield is perfect insurance should Philly's aerial attack stall. The better news is Hurts's 2024 has been a return to the form that got this team to Super Bowl 57.
The dual-threat quarterback set career highs for completion rate (68.7), touchdown rate (5.0) and passer rating (103.7) while throwing less than ever (24 attempts per game). Like Herbert, he's thrived with a run-heavy offense rather than shrinking from it. But he can rise up when asked -- like in Week 15, when he kicked off the Steelers' four-game losing streak en route to 290 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns (along with 45 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground).
3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
EPA rank: 3
CPOE rank: 2
Gut feeling rank: 5
Passer rating rank: 2
QBR rank: 5
Playmaker rank: 10
Playoff win rank: 4
Total: 31
Goff's revival is remarkable; from getting usurped by John by-god Wolford (with injury playing a role) and exiled from Los Angles to a return to MVP-caliber play. He hasn't been the downfield dynamo Sean McVay wanted -- his 33 deep throws are 26th-most in the NFL, behind Trevor Lawrence who only played 10 games this fall -- but he's remains a short- and mid-range monster who understands his assignments and delivers the ball on time to a receiving corps that leads the league in yards after catch.
While his lack of bombs and limited scrambling dented his playmaking score, he remains one of the game's most efficient quarterbacks. The Lions are a nightmare to fall behind, in part because of Jahmyr GIbbs and David Montgomery (who is expected to return from a knee injury in the playoffs) but also because Goff avoids fatal mistakes and keeps his offense on time through the air. His 54.7 percent success rate -- a play that gains at least 40 percent of yards required on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down -- led the league in 2024.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
EPA rank: 1
CPOE rank: 10
Gut feeling rank: 2
Passer rating rank: 7
QBR rank: 2
Playmaker rank: 5
Playoff win rank: 3
Total: 30
Allen's 2024 was marvelous. The fact he did it with Khalil Shakir as his top target is incredible.
The Bills quarterback has been the kind of presence that once only existed in foreboding tales told to children to keep them from wandering into witches' huts. He is an impossible human being, a Ford F-150 brought to life by the dying gasp of a trickster god. He can run away or through you. He can launch a football into the parking lot from his back foot.
The question is whether 2025 can be his breakthrough. He's never made it beyond the conference championship game. Three of his last four seasons have ended at the hands of Mahomes and the Chiefs. He could lock down one piece of his legacy by winning this year's MVP award -- but it would ultimately be hollow if he can't erase the playoff heartache that's been inseparable from the Bills' rise.
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
EPA rank: 2
CPOE rank: 3
Gut feeling rank: 3
Passer rating rank: 1
QBR rank: 1
Playmaker rank: 1
Playoff win rank: 6
Total: 17
All that stuff I said about Allen? It's mostly true for Jackson, too.
He's got the arm strength, vision and accuracy to pick up 50-plus yards with a flick of his wrist. His angry runs manifest in a different way than Allen's, taking out frustrations on the turf beneath his feet with cuts that defy the laws of physics (and, yeah, he runs some dudes over as well). He completed more than 68 percent of his passes between 10 and 19 yards downfield, creating the chunk yardage that ground opponents into dust.
He's also got his own postseason demons to shake; a 2-4 playoff record. Last winter saw him advance to the AFC title game before getting his heart broken. That's as far as he's gotten in January.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 2025 NFL Playoffs quarterback rankings: From C.J. Stroud to which MVP frontrunner at No. 1?
