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2024 NFL Preview: 10 make or break seasons, including Deshaun Watson and Geno Smith

frank schwab
Senior writer
·6 min read

Last season, Jordan Love had a pivotal season in his career. Even halfway through, we didn't know which direction it was headed.

Love struggled early in his first season as the Green Bay Packers' starting quarterback, then caught fire late. He went from a question mark in early November to a tie for the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history this summer. His four-year, $220 million deal is a good lesson for all the players whose careers are at a crossroads this season.

Here are 10 high-profile players facing make-or-break seasons.

Here are the stakes: Either Watson plays well this season or we can start talking about the Browns' trade for him being the worst in NFL history. And his contract, which was reportedly restructured this week, being one of the worst in NFL history. Watson hasn't come close to living up to what Cleveland gave up for him in a trade or his $230 million fully guaranteed contract. He has had legitimate excuses, but those are going to wear very thin in Year 3 if he plays poorly again. He's coming off shoulder surgery and that could affect him, but the Browns can't wait forever to see a return on their investment. If Watson struggles again, the Browns are going to have to figure out what to do with him and his ridiculous contract that now has them looking at a $72.9 million cap hit for the 2025 and 2026 seasons. The Browns have the type of roster that can win a Super Bowl. They need their quarterback to be at that level too.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson faces a big 2024 season. (AP Photo/David Richard)
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson faces a big 2024 season. (AP Photo/David Richard)

The question with Horn isn't really talent but health. Over the 2021 and 2023 seasons, Horn missed 25 of 34 regular-season games. He has played well when he has been on the field and the Panthers picked up his fifth-year option, which speaks to his ability. But durability matters too, and this is the season Horn has to show he can stay on the field.

Darnold couldn't ask for a better opportunity. The former third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft didn't succeed with the Jets or Panthers, but those were subpar environments. After a season as the 49ers' backup, he will be the Vikings' unquestioned starter after J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Vikings have the cast to support Darnold and have expressed faith in him. At age 27, it's now or never for Darnold to become a viable NFL starter.

We know Higgins is a good player. We've seen that. But the stakes are high this season. You can't rule out the Bengals bringing Higgins back, but it seems unlikely. That would mean this is a true contract year for Higgins. The problem is he's coming off his worst season with just 656 receiving yards. If he plays like he did early in his career, he'll get a mega-deal in free agency. Another poor season under 700 yards and that price will come way down. Financially, Higgins has a ton on the line this season.

Smith had a career revival in 2022, signed a three-year, $75 million contract in 2023, took a bit of a step back playing behind a beat-up offensive line, then his status for the Seahawks in 2024 was up in the air for a while. The Seahawks brought Smith back after guaranteeing most of his 2024 salary but there will be another decision in 2025. Smith's salary-cap hit in 2025 is $38.5 million and he'll have a $10 million roster bonus due on the fifth day of the league year according to Spotrac. Smith turns 34 in October, which is not too old for a quarterback but it's another factor in his future. And if Smith plays like he did in 2022, the tables will turn and he'll be the one asking for a raise. It's a big year for the Seahawks/Smith relationship.

At this point it doesn't look great for Penning. The 2022 first-round draft pick was forced into the starting lineup when Ryan Ramczyk's knee injury knocked him out for the season. Penning hadn't been a success at left tackle so he was moved to the right side. Then he struggled in the preseason opener, leaving the Saints' coaches wondering what happened. Penning won't get too much patience to clean things up and be a productive part of the Saints' line.

The Giants were shopping around for quarterbacks in the draft, couldn't find one and Jones retained his spot. But it's clear now that Jones is on his last legs in New York. He could have a fine season and become the Giants' quarterback of the future again. He's just 27 years old. But it better happen this season. Jones is coming off an ACL tear, which makes it even more challenging. Jones threw two interceptions in his first preseason work, which was alarming, but he'll have every chance once the regular season starts to make it right.

The Panthers were bad last season and Ekwonu was one reason. After a solid rookie season, the sixth pick of the 2022 draft struggled last season. He allowed 11 sacks, third-most in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus

"I feel like last year, I didn't take advantage of the resources that I had available to me. I feel like I kind of just, I guess riding the coattails of that rookie season a little bit," Ekwonu told the team's site this offseason.

"I don't want to speak on last year too much if I'm being honest, but obviously very humbling experience."

A team can't spend the sixth pick of the draft on a lineman and have him be a liability. Ekwonu needs to bounce back this season.

The NFL doesn't have a lot of patience. Even highly drafted players can get forgotten quickly. Wilson was the seventh pick of last year's draft but had just 3.5 sacks as a rookie and didn't start a game. He wasn't drafted by this Raiders regime either. Even worse for Wilson, Malcolm Koonce's breakout last season cuts into his opportunities to get snaps. Wilson needs to take advantage of whatever snaps he gets to avoid being left behind.

McDonald is another 2023 first-round pick hoping to not get forgotten. He had just three sacks last season. This offseason Bryce Huff left the Jets in free agency, they traded John Franklin-Myers and Haason Reddick held out and requested a trade. That means McDonald needs to step up. The team was hoping McDonald would bulk up but he didn't as much as anticipated, which could be a concern. It won't matter if McDonald doubles or triples his sack total from his rookie season.