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2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Drama Series

Marcus Jones
·3 min read
ConsiderThis
ConsiderThis

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

If there is a type of television show that has taken the biggest hit from strike delays, it has been hour-long dramas. The only Outstanding Drama Series nominee from last season that’s still eligible is “The Crown,” which happens to be a past winner.

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In theory, this opens the doors to a slew of dramas that have not received major Emmys attention to now break in. In practice, one has to question if they think voters will really take to “Slow Horses,” an Apple TV+ spy series that has admittedly done well during guild awards seasons, three seasons in. It certainly did not happen with “Yellowstone,” arguably the biggest drama on TV.

The two things that help a show get nominated are obviously having been nominated in major categories before, which boosts the chances of “The Morning Show” in particular, or being completely new (which means less episodes for voters to catch up on.) The latter point is what Apple TV+ is seeming to bet on, introducing buzzy new shows with movie star talent like “Hijack” and “Sugar.” If HBO got four out of eight of the nominations last year, which had much more competition, then the still burgeoning streaming service could maybe find the same luck during this drama drought.

But ultimately, there will be only one winner, so though they all similarly do still have multiple hour-longs to push, expect fellow networks like HBO, Showtime, FX, Disney+, Max, and even CBS to put all their eggs into one basket to make sure “The Gilded Age,” “The Curse,” “Justified: City Primeval,” “Loki,” “Tokyo Vice,” and “Elsbeth” secure them at least on Outstanding Drama Series nomination.

Though Apple TV+ is entering this Emmys season with the most contenders, streamers Netflix and Prime Video actually seem the most likely to receive more than one Outstanding Drama Series nomination this year. In addition to “The Crown,” sci-fi series “3 Body Problem,” helmed by the “Game of Thrones” showrunners who are tied for most wins in this category, is performing well on Netflix, which bodes very well for its Emmy chances. Meanwhile Prime Video has “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” from Emmy winner Donald Glover, who was just nominated for writing “Swarm” last year, and “Fallout,” a major video game adaptation executive produced by the creators of “Westworld.”

Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
“3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“The Curse” (Showtime)
“Elsbeth” (CBS)
“Fallout” (Prime Video)
“The Gilded Age” (HBO)
“Hijack” (Apple TV+)
“Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
“Loki” (Disney+)
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
“The New Look” (Apple TV+)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
“Sugar” (Apple TV+)
“Tokyo Vice” (Max)

More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Although “Succession” is over, HBO still has a chance to build upon its two year winning streak in the Outstanding Drama Series category should a show like “The Gilded Age” win. Netflix’s “The Crown” could also become the second show, after “The Sopranos,” to end its run with two non-consecutive wins in the category.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Succession” (ended); “Better Call Saul” (ended); “The White Lotus” (Season 3 is not eligible); “Yellowjackets” (Season 3 is not eligible); “Andor” (Season 2 is not eligible); “House of the Dragon” (Season 2 is not eligible); “The Last of Us” (Season 2 is not eligible)

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