2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs

46-26-10, 102 Pts. 3rd Atlantic, 10th Overall.

3.63 GF/GP (2nd), 3.18 GA/GP (21st), 24.0 PP% (7th), 76.9 PK% (23rd)

Top scorer: Auston Matthews. 81 GP. 69-38-107, 18 PPG, 369 shots, 705 Face-off wins, 93 Blocks, 20:58 TOI/GP

2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:

Opening: +1600
Current: +1500 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 6.8%. Handle: 7.4% (as of August 22, 2024)

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2023-24 Fantasy Recap

Leafs fan or not, by the end of the season, everyone was cheering for Auston Matthews to score 70 goals. One of the best things about fantasy is that you can have lofty expectations for a player and still be surprised. Beyond his incredible goal-scoring ability, Matthews has put in our minds what we once thought was impossible: 80 goals in a season.

His assist totals will never be very high, and that's the unfortunate downside of being a shoot-first (or shoot-only?) player, but Matthews is as good a pick as any after Connor McDavid. Nikita Kucherov may score more points but Matthews dominates one of the hardest categories (goals) in fantasy, equivalent to two elite players who score 40 goals each.

The Leafs also boast two elite talents in Mitch Marner and William Nylander, both of whom should've been drafted in the first two rounds of standard drafts. They both have 100-point potential but do it in vastly different ways. Nylander will offer more goals and shots, but Marner will notch more hits and blocks due to his penalty killing prowess. Nylander became the second Leaf in the cap era to score at least 40 goals in consecutive seasons, joining Matthews.

There was some surprise that Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi didn't provide more offense, scoring 47 points and 43 points, respectively. Domi provided just nine goals on really poor shooting luck and Bertuzzi's scoring pace dropped. It shows that not every player who joins an elite offense in a top-six role is guaranteed to score points, and neither player lived up their sleeper status.

In net, however, the Leafs did prove that even mediocre goalies can win a lot of games on good teams. Ilya Samsonov was 23-7-8, but his .890 SP and 3.13 also hindered fantasy managers. Among the 25 goalies with at least 20 wins, Samsonov's save percentage was the worst.

2024-25 Fantasy Outlook

Matthews, Marner and Nylander will do what they do best, and the rest of the roster is poised to offer some quality depth options. John Tavares is good for goals, shots and face-off wins even though his best seasons are likely behind him, and he signaled as such by passing the captaincy to Matthews. Domi and Matthew Knies, who will likely serve as the second-line (if Nylander plays center) and first-line left wingers, respectively, also offer up 50-60 point upside with Knies adding value with hits. Knies' 169 hits last season led all Leafs forwards, and at the most optimistic end we might be looking at an early-career Tom Wilson-lite with a 20-goal, 200-hit season.

I'm skeptical the Leafs keep Nylander at center all season. He just doesn't look entirely comfortable there, and I think he needs another center on his line to take draws. I asked THN Toronto editor David Alter if playing center could impact Nylander's offense at all:

Bobby McMann deserves a mention. He's very similar to Knies in that both players can score goals and like to hit. McMann scored 13 of his 15 goals in the final 33 games of the season, and he's worth the risk in deeper banger leagues.

Morgan Rielly will share the ice most often with Matthews and Marner, and as the PP1 QB, he has immense value. Other defensemen may be better at scoring points, but Rielly is a really safe bet. There's no John Klingberg-type of power-play specialist this season to siphon the power play minutes from Rielly.

While Samsonov took the majority of the starts last season, when Joseph Woll was healthy, his strong play planted the seed of thought for him be the starter this coming season. The big risk with Woll is injury, but that's also where Anthony Stolarz will come into play. An astute signing by the Leafs, Stolarz will have lots of fantasy value, no matter if he's a 1B in a tandem or a backup. The Leafs' goaltending should improve overall.

2024-25 Projected Lineup

(updated Oct. 7, 2024)

Even Strength

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Max Domi - John Tavares - William Nylander
Max Pacioretty - Pontus Holmberg - Nick Robertson
Steven Lorentz - David Kampf - Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly - Chris Tanev
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Timothy Liljegren
Simon Benoit - Connor Timmins

Joseph Woll - Anthony Stolarz

ex: Bobby McMann, Philippe Myers

IR: Fraser Minten (high-ankle sprain, no return date set), Connor Dewar (off-season shoulder surgery, no return date set)

LTIR: Calle Jarnkrok (undisclosed), Jani Hakanpaa (knee surgery), Dakota Mermis (jaw surgery)

Power Play

Tavares - Matthews - Marner - Nylander - Rielly

Knies - Domi - McMann - Robertson - Liljegren

Sleeper: Matthew Knies, LW

The Leafs have a new coach but it's hard to see them move Knies off their top line, and he plays a game that Craig Berube should like very much. Along with 20-goal upside, Knies is a high-volume hitter. Skating with Matthews and Marner will give him tons of offensive opportunities. In banger leagues, I think Knies should be going well above his draft value.

Breakout: Bobby McMann, LW

I think you can also toss Nick Robertson's name here, but I have a feeling the Leafs and Berube will like McMann a lot more. Robertson's talented, but the Leafs' weakness isn't goal scoring. McMann, however, brings a lot of jam, plays well with Tavares and doesn't need the puck on his stick to make a difference. McMann was a strong player late last season, and he'll get a whole season to prove his worth.

There are similarities between Knies and McMann — both can score and hit — but Knies' offensive ceiling is higher and McMann delivers more hits. I'd roster Knies first because scoring categories are harder than hits, but both will pop up on fantasy rosters throughout the season. It would be quite something if both Knies and McMann finish with 20 goals and at least 100 hits each.

I asked THN Toronto editor David Alter who he thought would score the most points between Knies, McMann and Robertson:

Bounce-back: Joseph Woll, G

I think Woll is the obvious answer here. He was limited to just 23 starts to injuries and his workload is going to be significantly higher this season. Fantasy managers may raise eyebrows at the Stolarz signing and wonder what the rotation will look like, but I think Woll gets first crack at the No. 1 job. He's pegged to be their starter of the future.

Bust: Nick Robertson, LW

Hot take? Robertson has his fair share of fans, and he's certainly got the talent to be a 30-goal scorer in the NHL one day. But I'm not sure that happens with the Leafs and Berube. If Nylander moves back to the right wing, there will be even less room for Robertson to play in the top six since the Leafs seem to prefer Knies, McMann, and veterans such as Calle Jarnkrok.

Robertson ranked fourth in points scored per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 among Leafs forwards last season, per naturalstattrick.com, but it's a moot point if he doesn't get the ice time. There are just too many headwinds for Robertson to be particularly valuable in fantasy this season unless we get confirmation he will play at least L2 and PP2.

Goalies

The big question will be how the workload will be split. Woll is the incumbent and likely to begin the season as the No. 1, but Stolarz has proved at every stop in his career that he can be more than just a backup. Stolarz's numbers were excellent last season, leading the league in both save percentage (.925) and goals-against average (2.03). Sure, he played on arguably the league's best defensive team, but the Leafs defense should improve with Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who left the Panthers to sign with the Leafs as well.

Given how injury prone Woll has been, Stolarz is a great insurance policy. Fantasy managers should be looking to roster both to capture all of the Leafs' upside in wins. (This was the only reason Samsonov wasn't dropped last season). I think Woll should be the first pick because he's expected to get more starts, but I also wouldn't rule out a scenario where Stolarz becomes the No. 1, even if briefly. When it's this hard to figure out, just go for both.

THN Toronto editor David Alter on the Leafs' goalie rotation:

Jason's Top 5 Point Projections

(based on 82 games)

Auston Matthews, C - 63-42-105
Mitch Marner, RW - 32-61-93
William Nylander, RW - 41-51-92
John Tavares, C - 31-34-65
Morgan Rielly, D - 6-55-61

Yahoo Pre-season Rankings

4. Auston Matthews, C
10. William Nylander, RW
41. Mitch Marner, RW
55. John Tavares, C
79. Joseph Woll, G
106. Morgan Rielly, D
241. Max Domi, C/LW
327. Jake McCabe, D
427. Matthew Knies, LW
484. Bobby McMann, LW
308. Anthony Stolarz, G
506. Timothy Liljegren, D
590. Nick Robertson, LW
617. Max Pacioretty, LW

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