Yahoo Sports 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild
39-34-9, 87 Pts. 6th Central, 20th Overall
3.02 GF/GP (21st), 3.17 GA/GP (20th), 22.7 PP% (10th), 74.5 PK% (30th)
Top scorer: Kirill Kaprizov. 75 GP. 46-50-96, 19 PPG, 41 PPP, 277 Shots, 21:35 TOI/GP
2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:
Opening: +4000
Current: +4000 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 0.7%. Handle: 0.4% (as of August 22, 2024)
2023-24 Fantasy Recap
The Wild's record belies their value in fantasy hockey. Starting at the top, Kirill Kaprizov is elite. In any given season, he has 100-point, MVP-level potential. Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek are both 30-goal scorers, Mats Zuccarello is an ageless wonder who cranks out assists; among forwards who played at least 50 games last season, Zuccarello's 0.87 primary assist rate per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is comparable to Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat and Evgeni Malkin, and Zuccarello costs a fraction of the draft capital.
The biggest surprises last season were the arrival of Marco Rossi and the emergence of Brock Faber as a potential No. 1 defenseman. Rossi broke out in a huge way with 21 goals in his rookie season, providing much-needed depth down the middle, and Faber established himself as a premier defender in the league right away, scoring 47 points and blocking 150 shots. Rossi and Faber finished sixth and second in Calder voting, respectively, and Faber, in particular, found his way onto fantasy rosters rather quickly.
The issues with the Wild stemmed more from the defensive side of the puck where captain Jared Spurgeon due to injury and none of their three goalies were consistently reliable. Filip Gustavsson, who seemed poised to take the starting job following a 22-9-7, .931 SP and 2.10 GAA season in 2022-23, ended up being one of the worst goalies in the league, ranking 92nd (!) out of 98 goalies in goals saved above average at 5-on-5, per naturalstattrick.com.
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2024-25 Fantasy Outlook
Boldy's expected take another leap in his development following a brilliant end to his season when he scored 13 goals and 36 points and averaged almost 20 minutes per game in the final 33 games of the season. Projections for Boldy to score 80-plus points aren't far off, and he's become a legit sidekick to Kaprizov, who remains an elite player and worth drafting in the first round in most formats.
Even with the cap constraints, the Wild have some quality depth and a little bit of everything. Eriksson Ek is fantastic in banger leagues with high shot volume, lots of hits and face-off wins, and 70-point potential. Rossi has good upside in the later rounds for points, and his face-off abilities will continue to improve. Zuccarello is always a safe pick for points. Ryan Hartman is a useful depth player because he can fill so many categories and begins the season with dual C/RW position eligibility.
Where Faber goes will be interesting. There's no doubt he's a wonderful player, but could he be one of those who's far better in real life than in fantasy? He can rack up the points, but only if he gets to play PP1; otherwise, his shooting volume is rather low, though he makes up for it with plenty of blocked shots. There's a chance Faber gets drafted too high due to the hype and name recognition, but in the middle rounds, Faber's a great pick.
There are plenty of solid streaming options, too. Marcus Foligno is great for hits, though I doubt he scores many goals again, and both Jacob Middleton and Jonas Brodin are great for peripherals such as blocks and hits.
The major questions will be on the blue line and in net. Will Faber supplant Spurgeon and Declan Chisholm as the PP1 QB, or will the Wild go back to Spurgeon? And who will emerge as their top goalie? Jesper Wallstedt is waiting in the wings, but both Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury are blocking his path. While the Wild's goalies present plenty of options, none of them are particular palatable going into the season.
2024-25 Projected Lineup
(updated Oct. 7, 2024)
Even Strength
Kirill Kaprizov - Marco Rossi - Mats Zuccarello
Marcus Johansson - Joel Eriksson Ek - Matt Boldy
Marcus Foligno - Ryan Hartman - Yakov Trenin
Jakub Lauko - Marat Khustnutdinov - Frederick Gaudreau
Jonas Brodin - Brock Faber
Jacob Middleton - Jared Spurgeon
Declan Chisholm - Zach Bogosian
Filip Gustavsson - Marc-Andre Fleury
ex: Liam Ohgren, Jon Merrill, Jesper Wallstedt
Power Play
Kaprizov - Hartman - Zuccarello - Eriksson Ek - Faber
Ohgren - Rossi - Johansson - Foligno - Spurgeon
Sleeper: Marco Rossi, C
Not sure if Rossi qualifies as a sleeper after such a strong rookie season, but he's ranked well outside the top-250 in Yahoo's pre-season rankings. Last season, the Wild seemed to have resisted using Rossi as their top center — at one point they even tried Sam Steel instead — but once he skated with Kaprizov, the results were pretty good. Depending on how the Wild's lineup shakes out, Rossi could be the first, second or third-line center. But what's most important is Rossi's upside, which is much higher than Hartman's, and he's also considered a better playmaker than Eriksson Ek.
Rossi carried an upside IPP of 75.0 last season at 5-on-5, per naturalstattrick.com, and even if we consider that number to be an anomaly, it hints that Rossi is a very strong play driver. He ranked third behind only Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek in individual expected goals, and also started in the offensive zone the majority of the time. Both are recipes to fantasy success, but the drawback is that Rossi may not be part of their vaunted top power play unit. In keeper leagues, Rossi has immense value and along with Eriksson Ek will form a formidable 1-2 punch down the middle for many seasons.
Noteworthy: Rossi enters the season on the final year of his entry-level deal, and everyone noticed the deal Faber got. He also stayed in Minnesota in August rather than join the Austrian national team in the Olympic qualifiers (they didn't qualify) to train, just as he did last season. We could see some big things from Rossi this season.
The comparison of Marco Rossi to Danny Briere is so perfect to me. Doesn't hurt that they basically look identical in a model that includes over 4,000 F drafted over the past 30 years. pic.twitter.com/3G7PDrGGuj
— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) August 17, 2022
Breakout: Liam Ohgren, LW
It'll be interesting to see where Ohgren slots in. The sample size was small, but Ohgren was impressive. On a makeshift line with Kaprizov and Khustnutdinov, the trio outshot their opponents by a 2:1 ratio and dominating puck possession with a 60.9 CF%, per dobberhockey.com.
The Wild shifted players around constantly due to various injuries last season, but there's a chance Ohgren wins a top-six role out of camp. Johansson's aging and there's really no other high-upside offensive player who can challenge Ohgren, unless the Wild want to balance things out and promote a role player such as Hartman or Foligno.
In the right situation, I think Ohgren has a chance to score 20 shots and register over 150 shots with some special teams. The drawback is the lack of peripherals and experience; Ohgren's not a very physical player (ie. no hits) and may lack the requisite strength to battle for 82 games in his first full professional season in North America.
"I think [Liam] Ohgren will make the team. John Hynes really liked how he played in the four games last year and I know the Wild are hoping he can perform well in camp and preseason. If he does, Ohgren could take Marcus Johansson's spot on the second line left wing.
For Khusnutdinov, it is hard for me to see a spot for him to play top nine minutes at the start of the season assuming everyone is healthy. I believe the Wild are going to give Ryan Hartman a look back at center to start the year with Kaprizov and Zuccarello which leaves Eriksson Ek on the second line and Rossi on the third. With the addition of Trenin and Gaudreau locked in for four more years, Khusnutdinov's role seems to be a bottom-six forward. My question is, do you want him playing nine minutes a night on the fourth line or 18 minutes with PP and PK time in Iowa?"
- THN Minnesota editor Dylan Loucks on the impact of Minnesota's rookie class.
Bounce-back: Filip Gustavsson, G
Gustavsson is 26 years old and signed for one more season after 2024-25, which ensures the Wild will give him another crack at the starting job. Wallstedt is the goalie of the future but he doesn't look ready, and while Fleury has a no-movement clause, his best days are clearly behind him but also more likely to be traded since he has plenty of experience and becomes a UFA next summer.
If 2022-23 was Gustavsson's breakout, and 2023-24 was the bust, then 2024-25 must be the bounce back, right? He had an awful start last season with a .885 SP and 4.36 GAA, and barely improved over the course of the season except for some brief stretches in December and March. If Gustavsson can capture that form and be more consistent, he's going to get the majority of the Wild's starts.
Even as a zero-G option, Gustavsson carries some risk, but proponents of the zero-G strategy will tell you that all goalies carry some risk. Gustavsson is the highest-ranked goalie in Yahoo's pre-season rankings but I'm not convinced he will be the first Wild goalie off the board in most drafts.
"I do think Gustavsson bounces back, it's just a matter of if that is with the Wild or not. Assuming Gustavsson starts the year with the Wild I think he will start off by splitting time with Fleury and having Wallstedt mixing in every couple of games as well. I would expect Gus to bounce back and take over the starters net with Fleury as a solid backup. If Gustavsson does bounce back the Wild might look to trade him closer to the deadline to open a spot for Wallstedt to start more games."
- THN Minnesota editor Dylan Loucks on the Wild's goaltending situation
Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Bust: Jared Spurgeon, D
Spurgeon will turn 36 in November, he's coming off a season riddled with injury and there's competition on the blue line for power play minutes, so there's certainly a lot of risk.
It's true that he still plays a ton of minutes and the Wild seem to prefer him on the power play over Faber when he's healthy. But even at his best, Spurgeon was a 40-point defenseman who didn't shoot the puck a lot and added value only with blocked shots. Though he's ranked 670th in Yahoo's pre-season rankings, Spurgeon feels like a value trap. There's just too little upside to use a draft pick on him, even in the last few rounds.
"This is a hard one just because of how well Faber performed on the power play last year without Spurgeon. But when Spurgeon was healthy he was the QB on PP1 so I would have to think he will get looks there again.
The other question becomes, what happens to Declan Chisholm? He looked great last year on PP2 and some games he would be the QB on PP1 with Faber on the second unit. I think we will see Spurgeon on unit one and both Faber and Chisholm on unit two. But Faber and Spurgeon could very well swap or be in a rotation."
- THN Minnesota editor Dylan Loucks on Faber vs. Spurgeon vs. Chisholm on the power play
Goalies
It's conceivable Gustavsson and Fleury split the starts, but what about Wallstedt? He's still exempt from waivers, but he's going to join the team at some point, either when injuries strike or if the Wild decide to trade Gustavsson or Fleury. The Wild are a mid-table team, which caps the upside for whomever their starter may be.
In terms of fantasy value, I'd rank Gustavsson, Fleury and Wallstedt in that order, and largely due to playing time. As noted above, I think Gustavsson's going to have a bounce-back season, and I do wonder how effective Fleury can be with a heavy workload considering he's turning 40 in November and no longer the reliable starter he once was.
Teams have grown comfortable carrying three goalies but I question the wisdom with this approach for the Wild because both Gustavsson and Wallstedt needs reps. I don't think the Wild would disrespect Fleury by making him the No. 3 option right now, especially when former teammate Bill Guerin is the GM and understands the positive value of having a respected veteran such as Fleury on the bench. A three-goalie rotation is a nightmare for fantasy managers and there's a part of me that would rather just stay away from all of them.
"This year I think it is safe to say Wallstedt will start as a backup. The Wild will have stretches where they will carry three goaltenders so there won't be a set starter when they carry three. If Gustavsson gets traded, I think you will see Wallstedt get more games. If he performs well, I think you'll see a 1A/1B with Wallstedt and Fleury towards the end of the season."
- THN Minnesota editor Dylan Loucks on the Wild's goalie rotation
Jason’s Top 5 Point Projections
Kirill Kaprizov, LW - 45-51-96
Matt Boldy, LW/RW - 37-44-81
Mats Zuccarello, RW - 20-49-69
Joel Eriksson Ek, C - 28-38-66
Marco Rossi, C - 25-26-51
Yahoo Pre-season Rankings
13. Kirill Kaprizov, LW
45. Joel Eriksson Ek, C
94. Matt Boldy, LW/RW
126. Mats Zuccarello, RW
143. Brock Faber, D
217. Ryan Hartman, C/RW
229. Filip Gustavsson, G
265. Marcus Johansson, LW
274. Marc-Andre Fleury, G
336. Jesper Wallstedt, G
436. Marcus Foligno, LW/RW
484. Jonas Brodin, D
490. Marco Rossi, C
532. Jacob Middleton, D
670. Jared Spurgeon, D
792. Declan Chisholm, D
846. Marat Khusnutdinov, C
864. Liam Ohgren, LW
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