2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo Sabres

39-37-6, 84 Pts. 6th Atlantic, 22nd Overall

2.98 GF/GP (23rd), 2.96 GA/GP (11th), 16.6 PP% (29th), 79.8 PK% (13th)

Top scorers:
Alex Tuch. 75 GP. 22-37-59, 54 PIM, 192 Shots, 19:30 TOI/GP.
Rasmus Dahlin. 82 GP. 20-39-59, 66 PIM, 235 Shots, 154 Blocks, 195 Hits, 25:25 TOI/GP.

2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:

Opening: +5000
Current: +5000 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 0.7%. Handle: 0.5% (as of August 22, 2024)

2023-24 Fantasy Recap

The Sabres were dark horse darlings heading into the 2023-24 season. In the prior season, we witnessed Tage Thompson's breakout, 47-goal, 94-point campaign, a point-per-game season from Jeff Skinner and Rasmus Dahlin's emergence as an offensive force with Norris potential.

We should've seen a crash coming. The Sabres had the fourth-best shooting percentage (9.42%) at 5-on-5, according to naturalstattrick.com, and they were hugely disappointing in 2023-24 with nearly all of their players experiencing some regression.

Thompson provided poor value as an early-round pick for a goal-scoring power forward entering his prime on a team that looked like they would make the playoffs. Skinner, a perennial disappointment in fantasy circles, reverted back to the Skinner we all knew.

Dahlin was a disappointment, too, but certainly slightly less so; he provided excellent value in banger leagues with blocks and hits even though his scoring dried up. A few players provided great value as mid-season pick-ups: JJ Peterka broke out with 28 goals and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen supplanted the highly-touted Devon Levi in net.

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2024-25 Fantasy Outlook

After an unsustainable shooting percentage in 2023-24 and then a regression last season, it certainly sets the stage for the Sabres to bounce back. They're once again an intriguing group, and with a new (old?) coach behind the bench in Lindy Ruff.

Buying into such narratives can make us victims of our own biases and fallacies about statistical trends. But count me as one of those who remain optimistic the Sabres will one day reach their potential. They're just too talented not to, and they offer so many intriguing options at every position.

Coming off a down season, Thompson can provide excellent value, Dahlin is a potential top-five defenseman, Tuch is a sneaky mid-round pick for 70-point upside, and there are plenty of players who could surprise, including Dylan Cozens, Bowen Byram, Jack Quinn and Zach Benson.

The one thing that can improve that should give all Sabres a big stats boost: An improved power play. Relative to the talent they could put on the ice, the Sabres were atrocious with the man advantage. I'm cautiously optimistic with Seth Appert now taking over the power play; he was promoted from their AHL affiliate's head coaching position after four excellent seasons that included a deep playoff run.

Related: 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team-by-Team Schedule Analysis

2024-25 Projected Lineup

(updated Oct. 4, 2024)

Even Strength

J-J Peterka - Tage Thompson - Alex Tuch
Zach Benson - Dylan Cozens - Jack Quinn
Jordan Greenway - Ryan McLeod - Jason Zucker
Beck Malenstyn - Sam Lafferty - Nicolas Aube-Kubel

Rasmus Dahlin - Henri Jokiharju
Bowen Byram - Owen Power
Mattias Samuelsson - Connor Clifton

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - Devon Levi

ex: Peyton Krebs, Jacob Bryson, James Reimer

Power Play

Peterka - Thompson - Tuch - Quinn - Dahlin

Zucker - Cozens - Benson - Power - Byram

Sleeper: Zach Benson, LW

With Peterka no longer a secret, I think it'll come down to Benson or Quinn, and I give Benson the edge because he's got a full season's worth of experience and the coaches clearly trust him despite being only 19 years old.

Benson is almost completely off the fantasy radar even though he's slated to play a top-six role, ranked 627th in Yahoo's pre-season rankings. Among Sabres forwards last season, Benson trailed only Thompson in CF% and ranked third behind Peterka and Casey Mittelstadt in xGF% with a sub-1.000 PDO, according to naturalstattrick.com. Translation: Benson could've scored many more points if he wasn't one of the unluckiest players on the team.

One player who may threaten Benson and Quinn's ascension is Jiri Kulich, who has a chance to win a job out of camp. The Sabres have plenty of wingers but might need more depth down the middle, opening the door for Kulich.

THN Sabres editor Michael Augello on Quinn vs. Benson and who will score more points:

"I'll go with Benson since Quinn has to prove that he has gotten past his injury issues from last season. Benson could get the first crack at the top-line left-wing spot."

... and on Kulich:

"Kulich is an excellent prospect who scored 20+ goals two years in a row in Rochester, but he conceivably could end up back in the AHL if Benson takes the top-line spot. With all the summer depth forward additions, Kulich would be better off playing top-line and PP minutes with the Amerks."

Breakout: Bowen Byram, D

It's about time, right?

We know about Peterka, and we've highlighted Benson, Quinn and Kulich, and now we turn our attention to the Sabres defense, which is arguably more important to their season's success than their ability to score.

Acquired from the Avs last season for Mittelstadt, Byram rounds out their 'Core Four' on defense, joining Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson. At full strength, this is a fearsome top-four, with Byram trailing Dahlin in their ability to generate offense from their blue line.

The most curious thing about Byram, though, is his reluctance to shoot the puck. He possesses great puck-moving ability and he's scored 21 goals over the past two seasons, but he barely registers over a shot per game. It can be really frustrating; Byram ranked ninth out of 10 Sabres defensemen last season in shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 but trailed only Dahlin in individual expected goals per 60 minutes.

I don't expect Byram to put up big numbers — I just don't think he plays that kind of style — but in 12-team leagues he will eventually find his way onto someone's roster for a full season. Even if Byram doesn't score, he should be able to provide some blocks and hits for added value in banger leagues.

THN Sabres editor Michael Augello on Byram's point production:

"I'll go with 35.....he will not get top PP time because of Dahlin, and he likely will play on the second pairing with Owen Power, since Mattias Samuelsson likely slots in with Rasmus."

Bounce-back: Tage Thompson, C/RW

This one just seems too obvious, so I asked our resident THN Sabres editor for his input just to confirm.

(By the way, Thompson having RW eligibility is such a cheat code).

THN Sabres editor Michael Augello on how many goals Thompson will score this season:

"My feeling is that Thompson will be closer to his 38-goal total from three years ago, which would be an improvement from his 29 last season."

Bust: Owen Power, D

This was a difficult pick, but Power strikes me as a player who will always be better in real life than in fantasy. His smooth, steady game doesn't translate well to fantasy because he seems more worried about making the right play than scoring. He's not a big shooter nor a big hitter, two variables that usually vault lower-scoring defensemen higher in the rankings.

I think Power will quietly score around 40 points with over 100 shots and 100 blocked shots. That's valuable in fantasy, but falls short of his on-ice pedigree. I love Power's potential as a top-pairing defenseman, but as a fantasy asset there's nothing to get excited about.

Goalies

This is perhaps the Sabres' weakest position, though unlike last season I don't think there's any debate Luukkonen is their starter. The signing of veteran James Reimer is interesting, as it indicates the Sabres don't have much interest having a tandem of two young goalies, preferring an older mentor to be on the roster.

I thought Luukkonen was fantastic last season, considering the circumstances, and an improved team in front of him means he has a legit chance to firmly establish himself as a No. 1 goalie in this league. I think Luukkonen ends up with a similar workload as he did last season and he's a very good option in the later rounds or as a zero-G option.

Levi will attract attention because he's been tabbed as their goalie of the future, but I'm not sold that his future potential is so much higher than Luukkonen's that it's a foregone conclusion.

THN Sabres editor Michael Augello on Levi's role in the 2024-25 season:

"In spite of the recent reports of Levi definitely being with the Sabres to start the season, there is still a chance that he ends up with the Amerks and James Reimer is the backup. Luukkonen played his best when he played regularly from January till the end of the season. Lindy Ruff will ride him (unless last year was a fluke) for 55 games. That means Levi (if he does not get sent down) plays 27 games."

Related: Sleepers and Keepers Podcast: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Devon Levi

Jason’s Top 5 Point Projections

(based on 82 games)

Tage Thompson, C - 39-35-74
Alex Tuch, RW - 27-38-65
Rasmus Dahlin, D - 13-51-64
Dylan Cozens, C - 20-32-53
JJ Peterka, LW - 26-25-51

Yahoo Pre-season Rankings

63. Rasmus Dahlin, D
64. Tage Thompson, C/RW
93. Alex Tuch, RW
102. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, G
143. Jason Zucker, LW
171. JJ Peterka, RW
231. Dylan Cozens, C
257. Devon Levi, G
293. Bowen Byram, D
305. Owen Power, D
348. James Reimer, G
429. Jordan Greenway, LW
632. Jack Quinn, RW
627. Zach Benson, LW
632. Mattias Samuelsson, D

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