2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton Oilers

49-27-6, 104 Pts. 2nd Pacific, 9th Overall

3.56 GF/GP (4th), 2.88 GA/GP (10th), 26.3 PP% (4th), 79.5 PK% (15th)

Top scorer: Connor McDavid. 76 GP. 32-100-132, 44 PPP, 263 Shots, 118 Hits, 442 Face-off wins, 21:22 TOI/GP

2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:

Opening: +1000
Current: +850 (league favorite) (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 12.4% (highest). Handle: 25.0% (highest) (as of August 22, 2024)

2023-24 Fantasy Recap

Well, it certainly didn't start off great. The Oilers fired Jay Woodcroft after a 3-9-1 start and Connor McDavid had scored "just" 10 points in 11 games. A contract negotiation with Leon Draisaitl was also looming, so panic mode starts to set in.

Any ground lost at the beginning of the season will make it far more difficult to earn a playoff spot in the spring. The Oilers needed to win now, and they definitely did under Kris Knoblauch, who guided them to an NHL-best .703 P% and a Stanley Cup final berth.

No other team in the league features as much star power as the Oilers. McDavid is already on a path to be one of the league's greatest ever, and count the dollars for Drasaitl — he has more than anybody. The criticism against the Oilers were against the rest of its lineup. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman dispelled some of those notions last season, but no one in the league improved more than Evan Bouchard, who went from 40 points to 82, and from 18-and-half minutes per game to 23.

Bouchard's breakout was expected; he was an eminently talented offensive defenseman, the 10th pick from a pretty loaded 2018 draft, who had two straight 40-point seasons even though he averaged less than 20 minutes per game. With a booming shot and Tyson Barrie departing, sharing the ice with McDavid and Draisaitl on the power play provided a huge boost.

Hyman and Bouchard's excellent seasons off-set an expected regression from Nugent-Hopkins (18.4 S% was not sustainable), a disappointing season from Darnell Nurse, shaky play from Stuart Skinner and all four of Connor Brown's goals.

Skinner had supplanted Jack Campbell as the starter last season, but a poor stretch of poor play in February and in the playoffs has forced his fantasy hockey value to be re-evaluated. He'll win a lot of games for the Oilers, there's no doubting that; but will he be a reliable No. 1 or just another goalie who benefits from playing on a really good team?

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2024-25 Fantasy Outlook

It's important to not to overthink things. McDavid is the clear-cut No. 1 pick in fantasy. Those who try to be cute and and consider if other centers have more fantasy value because they shoot more or win more face-offs need to stop ASAP. It's McDavid and everyone else.

I do wonder, sometimes, if it's physically possible in today's game for McDavid to score 200 points, or at least get close enough to it. Assume we follow his career goals to assists ratio of roughly 1:2, he'd need to score 67 goals and 133 assists. The goals will be a lot easier to attain; more shot volume and a shooting percentage close to 20 percent can do that easily. But 133 assists? At 200 points, McDavid would exceed the Sharks (180) and Blackhawks' (178) total goals.

THN Edmonton editor Caleb Kerney on McDavid's ceiling:

"130-150 is reasonable, but 180 is probably his ceiling. He's just that good."

If Kerney is right, we might have to give McDavid the Gretzky treatment and separate his goals and assists into two separate fantasy entities.

Related: 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey: Top 10 Centers

With McDavid and Draisaitl, who's a top-five pick in any format, the Oilers are well-represented at the top of the lists. Hyman would be hard-pressed to score 54 goals again, but 40 is certainly very reachable; he gets a ton of shot volume and shares the ice almost exclusively with McDavid, which boosts his fantasy value. Nugent-Hopkins is valuable for similar reasons, though his offensive production is not nearly as high as Hyman's.

The intrigue lies in two new wingers: Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, who will presumably play on Draisaitl's line. They were signed to improve the Oilers' scoring depth, and just as how Hyman (and everyone else's) fantasy value increased sharing the ice with McDavid and Draisaitl, we can expect the same for the newcomers.

Skinner had fallen out of favor with the Sabres after two straight 30-goal seasons, but he's an adept playmaker. Arvidsson's season last just 18 games last season due to injury but prior to that was one of the league's better scorers at 5-on-5. Both players have something to prove and couldn't be put in a better position to score more points. Their fantasy values will rise accordingly from the previous season, though how much they score will depend on their usage on the power play as well.

Bouchard enters 2024-25 as a top-five defenseman and I think there should be little debate. Bouchard finished fourth in scoring last season and there are only two others, Hughes and Makar, who are more than likely to score more points than Bouchard. Roman Josi? He might lose shares to Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. Victor Hedman? The Lightning roster looks weaker. Adam Fox? Doesn't shoot enough. Noah Dobson and Rasmus Dahlin? Inferior lineups.

If McDavid and Draisaitl are gone, the third Oiler I might target is Bouchard due to position scarcity. Hyman, RNH, Arvidsson, Skinner the left winger and Skinner the goalie are worth rostering, but none of them will provide the value Bouchard does.

THN Edmonton editor Caleb Kerney on Bouchard's ceiling:

"There's a great chance that Bouchard hits 90 points. With the Oilers improvements to their top-six forward group, he should be a greater danger at even strength. He's continue to be elite on the powerplay."

If Bouchard hits 90 points, he'd become just the fifth defenseman to reach that milestone in the cap era following Erik Karlsson (101 points, 2022-23), Roman Josi (96, 2021-22), Quinn Hughes (92, 2023-24) and Cale Makar (90, 2023-24). All of them either won or were named a finalist for the Norris.

2024-25 Projected Lineup

Even Strength

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Connor McDavid - Zach Hyman
Jeff Skinner - Leon Draisaitl - Viktor Arvidsson
Mattias Janmark - Adam Henrique - Connor Brown
Vasily Podkolzin - Derek Ryan - Corey Perry

Mattias Ekholm - Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse - Ty Emberson
Brett Kulak - Josh Brown

Stuart Skinner - Calvin Pickard

ex: Lane Pederson, Raphael Lavoie, Troy Stecher

LTIR: Evander Kane (abdomen, no return date set)

Power Play

Draisaitl - McDavid - Hyman - Nugent-Hopkins - Bouchard

(What second unit?)

Skinner - Henrique - Arvidsson - Perry - Nurse

Related: 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team-by-Team Schedule Analysis

Sleeper: Viktor Arvidsson, LW

Here's what I love about Arvidsson's fantasy value going into the 2024-25 season: He doesn't need the power play to score. Since his 2016-17 breakout season, Arvidsson ranks 31st in the league in goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and he has never had a season with a lower share of shot attempts relative to his opponents. His IPP ranges from the mid-60s to the low-70s, which suggests he is very capable of carrying a scoring line. Obviously, he won't have to do that with Draisaitl on the ice, but it also means that Arvidsson won't have to play on PP1 to score goals.

That's what gives Arvidsson the slight edge over Skinner, who's ranked 52 slots higher in Yahoo's pre-season rankings. Skinner is also an excellent scorer at 5-on-5 but a slightly higher percentage of Skinner's goals are scored on the power play. I also wonder if his Skinner's shot share will but cut back while playing with Draisaitl and Arvidsson, both of whom also put 200 shots on net every season. I think more fantasy managers will reach for Skinner due to his higher ranking and better name recognition, but Arvidsson might be the one who ends up having more value.

What I don't love about Arvidsson in fantasy: he's kind of injury-prone.

Related: Viktor Arvidsson: Over or Under 30 Goals?

Breakout: Vasily Podkolzin, RW

There's a spot on the fourth line that's up for grabs, and I think Podkolzin grabs that spot, allowing him to play his strong side rather than having three right-hand shots in Derek Ryan, Corey Perry and Raphael Lavoie.

The former 10th overall pick was acquired from the Canucks because they risked losing him to waivers if he couldn't crack the roster (and he probably wouldn't have); the Oilers' lineup isn't nearly as deep, and I don't think they'd acquire him only to potentially lose him on waivers. Podkolzin, a bull-in-a-china-shop, top-line winger as a junior, has limited offensive capabilities but perhaps with a more regular role could finally make good on his promise. Podkolzin has zero fantasy value right now; there's just little else to pick from a top-heavy roster that relies on low-upside but steady-and-safe veterans to not screw up when McDavid and/or Draisaitl aren't on the ice.

Bounce-back: Connor Brown, RW

Brown seemed like a natural fit on McDavid's wing. They were linemates in junior (where Knoblauch was their coach) and it set up Brown to be a popular sleeper pick. Well, that blew up in our faces like an egg in a microwave. Brown scored just four goals in 71 games, and didn't score his first until game 55 against the Capitals. More Halley's Comet than the moon orbiting McDavid's Earth, Brown was hardly seen at all during the season.

Of course, the laws of physics states that what goes down must come up, and there's no lower floor to sink to for Brown. His shooting percentage is surely going to revert back to the mean (career 10.7 S%) and I'll confidently take the over on four goals; unfortunately, Brown has shown that he's a bottom-six player on the Oilers, and as such still won't have enough fantasy value to be worth drafting.

Bust: Darnell Nurse, D

Other than the peripherals — PIM, shots, hits and blocks — I'm not sure Nurse offers a whole lot else. He's a 30-point defensemen even with power-play points, and going forward Bouchard will play the vast majority of the power play, demanding nearly 80 percent of the share. Indeed, Yahoo's pre-season rankings are similarly bearish on Nurse's value, ranking him 282nd. In leagues that favor points or don't count peripheral stats, Nurse should be one of your last defensemen picked.

Goalies

Skinner is ranked ninth among goalies in Yahoo's pre-season rankings, and that seems appropriate. It's a very thin position and, asides from a select few goalies, all of them have some drawback. For Skinner, it's his consistency, and we saw last season that Knoblauch has no problem going to Pickard when Skinner struggles. Based on his ability to rack up the wins alone, Skinner will one of the best goalies in fantasy hockey.

Zero-G strategists may choose to eschew Skinner and likely won't lose any value in the draft, provided Skinner doesn't suddenly become a Vezina-worthy finalist and they can find a near-equivalent replacement in the later rounds. I can see a lot of variance in where Skinner gets drafted depending on the league and each manager's preference/strategy, so adjust accordingly.

Pickard is arguably the more interesting fantasy option. Knowing that he will get a fair share of the workload with the coaches' confidence, is he worth rostering over a full season? He will certainly be a popular streaming target, but in leagues where goalies on the waiver wire are scarce, Pickard may be worth holding, even if to prevent other managers from streaming him. As long as Pickard picks up where he left off, he's set up to be one of the league's best backups.

THN Edmonton editor Caleb Kerney on Pickard's workload and outlook:

"25-30 games is a reasonable expectation for Pickard. A similar level would be fair. The Oilers will realistically be more accustomed to Kris Knoblauch's systems, which should increase the effectiveness of their defensive play."

Jason’s Top 5 Point Projections

Connor McDavid, C - 43-93-136
Leon Draisaitl, C - 44-67-111
Evan Bouchard, D - 15-63-78
Zach Hyman, RW - 39-26-65
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, LW - 19-43-62

Yahoo Pre-season Rankings

1. Connor McDavid, C
7. Leon Draisaitl, C/LW
19. Zach Hyman, LW/RW
34. Evan Bouchard, D
60. Stuart Skinner, G
71. Ryan Nugent-Hopkis, C/LW
104. Evander Kane, LW
107. Jeff Skinner, LW
128. Mattias Ekholm, D
159. Viktor Arvidsson, LW
233. Adam Henrique, C/LW
282. Darnell Nurse, D
316. Calvin Pickard, G
715. Connor Brown, RW
728. Ty Emberson, D
763. Vasily Podkolzin, RW
901. Raphael Lavoie, C
1100. Matt Savoie, C

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