2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Ottawa Senators

Ottawa Senators

37-41-4, 78 Pts. 7th Atlantic, 26th Overall

3.05 GF/GP (20th), 3.43 GA/GP (28th), 18.0 PP% (23rd), 75.1 PK% (29th)

Top scorer: Brady Tkachuk. 74 GP. 37-37-74, 134 PIM, 12 PPG, 357 Shots, 294 Hits, 19:09 TOI/GP

2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:

Opening: +4000
Current: +4000 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 1.5%. Handle: 1.0% (as of August 22, 2024)

2023-24 Fantasy Recap

In owner Michael Andlauer's own words, who took control of the team last season, last year was "crazy." The Senators were looking to break out but lost Shane Pinto for half the season for violating the league's gambling policy, Josh Norris missed a chunk of time getting his third (!) surgery on his left shoulder, the 'Big Three' on 'D' never quite worked out, Thomas Chabot missed 31 games, Tim Stützle saw a 20-point drop in production and head coach D.J. Smith was fired after 26 games.

The one constant? Captain Brady Tkachuk once again hit everything in sight and shot a lot of pucks from close range. There were others who had good seasons, of course, including Drake Batherson, who set career highs, Ridly Greig emerged as a reliable center at just 21 years old and Jake Sanderson looks like a legit franchise defenseman. There was just more bad than good, especially in net, where the Sens jettisoned their big financial commitment in Joonas Korpisalo after just one season, shipping him to the Bruins. The defense was inconsistent and the structure non-existent at times — Jacques Martin helped a bit, but it didn't change a whole lot — and, according to naturalstattrick.com, only the Flyers' goalies had a worse save percentage at 5-on-5.

2024-25 Fantasy Outlook

The optimism starts in net with Linus Ullmark, acquired from the Bruins in exchange for Korpisalo. The winner of the Jennings and Vezina in 2022-23, this is the first time Ullmark will be considered a No. 1 after splitting duties with Jeremy Swayman in Beantown and sharing duties with Carter Hutton with the Sabres. There's definitely some trepidation with Ullmark since he's started more than 40 games just once in his career, but he represents the Sens' best option since Craig Anderson.

With Jakob Chycrun now with the Caps, the hierarchy on the blue line also becomes more clear. Chabot may have longer tenure, but Sanderson looks superior in just about every facet of the game and he should be the first defenseman off the draft board. He led all Sens defensemen with 238 total minutes on the power play and averaged 3:01 per game.

Up front is where the Sens may rank among the league's best with the number of fantasy options they have, even if their overall offense may not rank among the league's elite. Tkachuk is a legend in banger leagues with his 300-hit, 300-shot potential, but beyond him the Sens have three centers who all have fantasy value in Stützle, Norris and Pinto, all of whom have 30-goal potential.

Batherson and well-respected veteran Claude Giroux round out the wings, but one of the best pick-ups this summer was David Perron, who will help stabilize the top-six with his versatility and consistency, scoring 50-60 points every season like clockwork.

I think the Sens have the potential to have a very good offense; a lot of it will depend on what version of Travis Green they get. With the Canucks early in his head coaching career in the NHL, he ran an offense that was very successful off the rush, but that later changed when he tried to coax more defense and structure out of his lineup.

2024-25 Projected Lineup

Even Strength

Brady Tkachuk - Tim Stützle - Claude Giroux
Ridly Greig - Josh Norris - Drake Batherson
Matthew Highmore - Shane Pinto - Michael Amadio
Noah Gregor - Zach Ostapchuk - Zack MacEwen

Jake Sanderson - Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot - Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven - Travis Hamonic

Linus Ullmark - Anton Forsberg

ex: Adam Gaudette, Nick Cousins, Jacob Bernard-Docker

Power Play

Tkachuk - Stützle - Batherson - Norris - Sanderson

Greig - Pinto - Perron - Giroux - Chabot

Sleeper: Josh Norris, C

The argument here would be between Norris and Pinto; in reality, both are good options. The margin is pretty tight and you could make good arguments for either player, but I lean Norris because he has a better track record with a 35-goal season under his belt already and he's ranked lower in Yahoo's pre-season rankings, meaning he might get more overlooked more often. In the past, Norris has been their preferred center behind Stützle even though Pinto skated with Tkachuk a lot last season.

Norris edges Pinto in raw statistics and usually skates on PP1, though they're likely the interchangeable pieces on that top unit. The underlying possession metrics, however, has Pinto beating Norris except for shooting percentage, per naturalstattrick.com. I can see the Sens flip-flopping between them all season and in all likelihood will end up with similar stats. The risk with Norris, however, is his troublesome shoulder. Pinto's expected to play the full slate after serving his half-season suspension.

Breakout: Jake Sanderson, D

The Sens leaned a little more on Chabot offensively, starting him in the offensive zone 53 percent of the time to Sanderson's 48 percent. But I don't think it really matters here, especially if Green sticks to Sanderson on PP1. Whoever gets that assignment will have more fantasy value for obvious reasons. But, overall, I think Sanderson's on the rise while Chabot has kind of stagnated. Both offer a modest number of shots and plenty of blocks, but I think the smarter bet is on Sanderson. He's ranked just two spots higher than Chabot on Yahoo, which just shows how close the margin can be.

Bounce-back: Tim Stützle, C/LW

It was such an uneven season for the Sens that it's no surprise Stützle's play suffered. Though he didn't show the progress we would've liked to see following a breakout 90-point season, it's always worth mentioning that the path to the top is rarely a straight line. Stützle shot an unsustainable 17.1 percent in his breakout season, so a regression was to be expected.

His possession metrics still showed a very strong possession player who can carry a line, and he scored 21 fewer goals because his shooting percentage dropped to 9.4 percent; had he replicated his shooting percentage, he would've finished with 32 goals instead of 18. I think Stützle will bounce back in a big way and his LW eligibility for leagues that count face-offs is going to be a huge bonus.

Bust: Ridly Greig, C

Hard to pick someone on the Sens roster. I could pick Giroux (age) but he's defying the age curve at the moment and Green still may lean on him on L1 as the veteran presence, even though Giroux may not play PP1. I can also go with Chabot (injury history plus Sanderson's emergence) but he might have a stronger than expected season playing on his strong side again with the acquisition of Nick Jensen, and a troublesome wrist that saw his shooting numbers decline is supposed to be 100 percent healed.

That leaves Greig, who unfortunately might be the odd-man out as a center. He could move up the lineup as a winger, as he did last season, but the Sens are missing a fourth-line center. I can see Greig being used in that situation at even strength and moving up the lineup in certain situations. Either way, this caps Greig's upside even though he played very well last season. I don't expect a big bump from the 14:45 he averaged per game last season, but if you need hits from a streamer, Greig's a great option.

Goalies

The question is whether or not Ullmark can handle the pressures of being a No. 1 on a team that many expect to keep improving. Ullmark was brilliant on a very structured Bruins team, and it's unlikely he'll get the same with the Sens. I wouldn't rule out a lot of usage for Anton Forsberg, too, who struggled last season but has shown flashes of ability. At worst, Forsberg is a very capable backup.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's telling that Ullmark is ranked 131st. Clearly, there's some doubt about his ability to be a top-tier fantasy goalie like he was in the past couple of seasons. Instead of quality, what you're getting from Ullmark now is quantity in starts and saves. I'd be cautious on Ullmark and in deeper leagues, I think Forsberg might have some surprising value.

Related: Rolling the Dice on Linus Ullmark and the Senators

Jason's Top 5 Point Projections

(based on 82 games)

Tim Stützle, C - 27-51-78
Brady Tkachuk, LW - 35-39-74
Drake Batherson, RW - 23-40-63
Josh Norris, C - 31-31-62
Claude Giroux, RW - 18-42-60

Yahoo Pre-season Rankings

15. Brady Tkachuk, C/LW
54. Tim Stützle, C/LW
123. Claude Giroux, C/RW
131. Linus Ullmark, G
137. Drake Batherson, LW/RW
196. Jake Sanderson, D
198. Thomas Chabot, D
210. David Perron, LW/RW
301. Shane Pinto, C
353. Anton Forsberg, G
473. Ridly Greig, C
503. Josh Norris, C

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