2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team Preview: Calgary Flames

Calgary Flames

Former Flames left winger Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew, died when a car crashed into them while they were cycling. The announcement was made Friday morning. I'd like to share the tribute to Gaudreau on the THN Flames website. Condolences to the Gaudreau family. Please don't drink and drive.

38-39-5, 81 Pts. 5th Pacific, 24th Overall

3.09 GF/GP (19th), 3.26 GA/GP (23rd), 17.9 PP% (26th), 80.8 PK% (9th)

Top scorer: Nazem Kadri. 82 GP. 29-46-75, 43 PIM, 10 PPG, 277 Shots, 592 Face-off Wins, 18:26 TOI/GP

2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:

Opening: +6600
Current: +10000 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 0.3%. Handle: 0.1% (as of August 22, 2024)

2023-24 Fantasy Recap

The Flames headed into the season with a ton of uncertainty, having traded Tyler Toffoli in the summer and Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin all set to become UFA. It wasn't a huge concern in fantasy, however, because they were all quality players and the Flames were still expected to be competitive.

But by the end of December, it was pretty clear this team was headed for a teardown. Blake Coleman was their top scorer, they were sixth in the Pacific and it pretty much went downhill from there.

There were bright spots; Mac Weegar had a career season and ended being one of the best defensemen in banger leagues, Nazem Kadri had a great bounce-back season and Yegor Sharangovich emerged as a 30-goal scorer. While all three players may take a step back in 2024-25, they also ended up being three of the best value picks and exceeded their draft position by a significant margin.

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2024-25 Fantasy Outlook

Whatever optimism the Flames hold going into 2024-25 feels like a red herring. They don't have an elite young player to build around, they're loaded with some big contracts and it's more likely they'll ship out veterans rather than adding them for a potential playoff run.

There are a few wild cards, but the only player I am quite certain who's worth drafting is Kadri. As long as he can maintain his high shot volume — he's surprisingly ranked 14th in the league since joining the Flames — and get his minutes with good deployment (over two-thirds of his starts are in the offensive zone, per naturalstattrick.com), he's going to be involved in the bulk of the Flames scoring.

I will be cautious with Coleman, who will turn 33 in November, rode an unsustainable 15.7 S% to 30 goals last season, and will face increased competition for top-six minutes. Weegar's in the same boat; it's highly unlikely he'll score 20 goals again without a similarly unsustainable 9.6 S% last season, though his peripherals will remain fantastic. It's just rather than being a top-10 defenseman, it's more likely Weegar will be closer to top-25.

There are some undervalued players, including Andrei Kuzmenko, Jonathan Huberdeau, Yegor Sharangovich, Anthony Mantha and potential second-line center Connor Zary, but the Flames lineup can be difficult to project with so many moving parts. Sharangovich was used as a center last season and Matt Coronato could be playing in the top-six or not at all. Martin Pospisil had a very good season but may be ill-suited for a scoring role despite his chemistry with Kadri and Kuzmenko last season.

2024-25 Projected Lineup

(updated Oct. 7, 2024)

Even Strength

Samuel Honzek - Nazem Kadri - Andrei Kuzmenko
Jonathan Huberdeau - Martin Pospisil - Anthony Mantha
Connor Zary - Mikael Backlund - Blake Coleman
Ryan Lomberg - Kevin Rooney - Adam Klapka

MacKenzie Weegar - Daniil Miromanov
Kevin Bahl - Rasmus Andersson
Jake Bean - Brayden Pachal

Dan Vladar - Dustin Wolf

ex: Matt Coronato, Joel Hanley, Tyson Barrie

IR: Yegor Sharangovich (upper body, week-to-week)

Power Play

Huberdeau - Kadri - Kuzmenko - Zary - Weegar

Honzek - Backlund - Coleman - Mantha - Andersson

Sleeper: Andrei Kuzmenko, LW/RW

Kuzmenko lost his spot in the Canucks' top six because he couldn't play a lick of defense and wasn't always reliable. On the Flames, there's no threat of him loving a top-six spot because they literally don't have anyone else who can score.

After moving to the Flames, Kuzmenko scored at a 70-point pace (including 17 points in the final 11 games) matching his first season with the Canucks when he scored 74. He showed excellent chemistry with Kadri on the top line, with Pospisil creating space for the duo to create offense. Kuzmenko is a right-hand shot who played left wing in the KHL, but the Flames' lack of righties means him and Coronato are really their only finishers on that side; Kuzmenko will be their only off-side finisher on the PP.

It's worth noting that Kuzmenko had better possession numbers and was a strong play driver with the Flames than the Canucks, which allowed him to score at a higher pace. If Kuzmenko continues to get top-six minutes with ample PP1 time and extreme deployment in the offensive zone — he started in the offensive zone nearly 80 percent of the time with the Flames — he can put up some really good numbers.

Breakout: Dustin Wolf, G

Wolf will get a chance to establish himself as a future No. 1 in a expected timeshare with Dan Vladar. Over the past three seasons, I think we've seen enough from Vladar to realize that he's a backup at best with a .894 career SP with the Flames.

Wolf is undersized and not your prototypical modern-day goalie, but he's won at every stop. He's a World Juniors gold medalist, named top goalie in the WHL and AHL twice in each league and an AHL MVP. If the Flames fall out of playoff contention, it's in their best interest to give Wolf the reps. From a fantasy standpoint, Wolf will only have streaming value, but there will be easy matchups in the Pacific and we could see Wolf in upwards of 30 games.

Related: It's Dustin Wolf Time in Calgary

Bounce-back: Jonathan Huberdeau, LW

Look, Huberdeau will never be an MVP-caliber player ever again. He's scored 55 and 52 points over the past two seasons, but I do see room for improvement in 2024-25. If anything, I don't expect Huberdeau's production to drop any further.

He's shooting percentage was abnormally low last season at 8.4 percent, his actual goals scored was far lower than his expected goals, and his IPP dipped to sub-70 percent, according to naturalstattrick.com. I think he scores close to 20 goals again and improves his ability drive play when he's on the ice. His stock is so low that Huberdeau could provide excellent value in the late rounds.

I asked THN Flames editor Steve Macfarlane on his thoughts on Huberdeau and a over/under 50-point total:

"It’s doubtful Jonathan Huberdeau ever returns to the ranks of 100-point players, but he’s still talented enough to get halfway there on an annual basis — if he stays healthy...

Things can only go up from here. Although his $10-plus-million contract is nearly untradeable, the 31-year-old winger is a proud player with a lot to prove. He may not want to be part of a rebuild, but his best path forward is to step up his game and let go of the past.

The Flames brought in winger Anthony Mantha in hopes a fellow Quebec product with a lot of finishing ability can help bring back the Huberdeau spark. Also in the veteran playmaker’s favor is the team is going to give him plenty of ice time, especially on the power play. Given his abilities and how frequently he’ll be on the ice with the rebuilding squad, taking the over on 50 points seems like a no-brainer." 

Bust: Blake Coleman, LW/RW

Too much competition for minutes, a weird season where his shooting percentage really spiked, and in the final months of the season scored 14 points in 29 games. I think his minutes and power play usage dips and gets used more in a matchup role with Backlund. In banger leagues, however, despite the expected drop in goals, I do see some value in his shots and hits.

Goalies

It's hilarious to me that Kirill Zarubin, who was a third-round pick in 2024 and on the Flames' reserve list, is their top-ranked goalie in Yahoo's pre-season rankings at No. 364. That kind of tells you the state of the Flames' goaltending.

Even with an underrated prospect in Wolf, the Flames are expected to have one of the league's weakest tandems in the crease. It could single-handedly thank their season, and therefore adversely affect the values of all their players.

Vladar has little to zero fantasy value while Wolf (as mentioned above) could have some streaming value as he begins to establish himself as a starting goalie.

Jason’s Top 5 Point Projections

(based on 82 games)

Nazem Kadri, C - 25-42-67
Yegor Sharangovich, RW - 28-33-61
Andrei Kuzmenko, LW - 30-31-61
Jonathan Huberdeau, LW - 14-41-55
MacKenzie Weegar, D - 13-34-47

Yahoo Pre-season Rankings

76. Blake Coleman, C/RW
103. MacKenzie Weegar, D
120. Nazem Kadri, C
207. Andrei Kuzmenko, LW/RW
220. Jonathan Huberdeau, C/LW
298. Mikael Backlund, C/LW
357. Anthony Mantha, RW
403. Yegor Sharangovich, C/RW
408. Rasmus Andersson, D
411. Martin Pospisil, C/RW
422. Dustin Wolf, G
514. Dan Vladar, G
543. Connor Zary, C/RW
820. Matt Coronato, RW

Related: 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Team-by-Team Schedule Analysis

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