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2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Marcus Jones
·3 min read
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We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX at a later date. Finally, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

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The State of the Race

It is a bit of a champagne problem to not be considered for another Emmy because the TV Academy already gave you one last year, but “Abbott Elementary” star Quinta Brunson having won Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series in 2022 is an element voters are considering when choosing a winner for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series this year. That said, there is also the fact that only one Black woman has won the category in the 75 years the Emmys have existed, so the ABC sitcom star winning the award would be groundbreaking.

But people are not realizing just how much of a shake-up “Hacks” star Jean Smart sitting out of the race this year is. Though the TV Academy are proven fans of “Abbott Elementary,” they have also given plenty of awards to “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” and may see it fit to award Rachel Brosnahan a second Emmy for her performance as the titular comedian in the well-received final season of the Prime Video hit. Looking at the past decade of performers that have won the category (mostly Julia Louis-Dreyfus for “Veep”), it seems like the older Emmy voters who prefer prestige packaging are the ones that determine the winner each year.

That may also be a knock on “Wednesday” star Jenna Ortega’s chances, even though the Netflix series probably has the largest audience among what’s nominated. Though Wednesday Addams herself is a character that decades of viewers have grown up with, “Wednesday” the show is unapologetically targeted at an audience younger than the average TV Academy member. Zendaya having won two Emmys for her performance in “Euphoria,” another teen show, does give some hope that 20-year-old Ortega could pull through with a record-setting win, but without nominees being able to campaign, voters will likely fall into old patterns.

Power Rankings:

  1. Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

  2. Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)

  3. Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday” (Netflix)

  4. Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me” (Netflix)

  5. Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face” (Peacock)

Will Win: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Could Win: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Should Win: Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”

More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: With Smart out, there are not any major prospects for any kind of hot streaks. Even the network “Hacks” is on, HBO Max, has little to no prospects in the category this year.
Notable Ineligible Series: Jean Smart, “Hacks” (Season 3 was not eligible); Tracee Ellis Ross, “Black-ish” (ended)

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