11 favorites to win The Open golf championship this year at Royal Troon

A caveat: no one — repeat, NO ONE — had Brian Harman, the Savannah-born lefty, on their list of favorites to win the 2023 Open Championship.

Harman’s pre-tournament odds per CBS Sports were listed at +17,500 — a less than 1% chance to win — alongside such notables as Adrian Meroni, Adam Schenk, Lucas Herbert and Nicolai Hojgaard.

The top choice last year was 2022 runner-up Rory McIlroy, who went off at +525 (a 16% chance) but finished seven shots back. It was pretty much the same for Cameron Smith in 2022; Will Zalatoris was a consensus pre-tournament pick, but he tied for 28th.

At least winner Collin Morikawa in 2021, at 30-1, was being mentioned (eighth) behind favorites Jon Rahm (9-1), Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele (both 16-1), McIlroy and Justin Thomas (18-1), and Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth (20-1).

So don’t cash in your IRA with the goal of making a killing this week at Royal Troon in Scotland. The Open is very different from, say, the Masters, PGA or U.S. Open: iffy weather, funky gorse and slower greens can make long-shot winners a reality — and consign the betting “favorites” to the rubbish bin.

Nevertheless, UK punters (bookies) annually put out favorites’ lists and so will we. The Open begins Thursday and wraps up Sunday.

This week’s top pick is no surprise (hint: he’s won six times in 2024). The listed odds are per CBS Sports:

Scottie Scheffler (9-2)

The world No. 1 won his most recent outing (Travelers Championship), then went home to wife and newborn. He’s only had one Top-10 the past five Opens, but when someone has already captured a major (Masters) and enough money that his caddie (who gets 10% of each winning purse) has earned more than most PGA Tour players, you go with him.

Rory McIlroy (7-1)

It’s been 10 grueling years since Northern Ireland’s favorite son won the last of his four majors, but Rors seems always in the hunt. Most recently three late bogeys, including a missed 3-footer, cost him an overtime shot at U.S. Open winner Bryson DeChambeau. Putting also cost him the 2022 Open Championship, but he’s usually in the hunt: three top-10s since 2019.

Bryson DeChambeau (12-1)

Longer is better on the PGA Tour; not so much on bunker-strewn, gorse-lined Open venues. But DeChambeau, even with an erratic driver, had enough short- and middle-iron game to win at Pinehurst despite missing nine of 14 fairways in the final round. The former bulked-up tech geek appears to be enjoying the roar of the crowd more, which never hurts.

Xander Schauffele (14-1)

The 2024 PGA Championship winner — his long-awaited first major title — is up there with McIlroy in strong finishes at The Open. Even better, he’s one of four golfers — none of them named McIlroy — to make the cut at each of the past five Opens, along with Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith.

Ludvig Aberg (16-1)

At 24, the Swedish wunderkind is an up-and-comer in majors. He finished second (behind Scheffler) at this year’s Masters in his first of three major appearances, and led the U.S. Open at Pinehurst after 18 holes with a 66, before fading with a 73-73, T-12th finish. With a career start like that, you figure the best is yet to come for Aberg (pronounced Oh-berg).

Collin Morikawa (16-1)

Another proven major winner with two titles (2020 PGA Championship, 2021 Open Championship), and he’s been in the hunt in 2024 with a tie for third at the Masters, T-4 at the PGA and T-14 at the U.S. Open. Question is, is Morikawa awaiting a breakout week, or did he hit his peak early?

Viktor Hovland (18-1)

Norway’s best has had an uneven 2024 in majors: a third-place finish at the PGA Championship sandwiched by a T-71 at Augusta and T-75 at Pinehurst. His other top showings were in PGA Tour “signature” events (T-15 at the Memorial, T-19 at The Genesis Invitational, T-24 at Wells Fargo Championship), the last at Charlotte’s Quail Hollow, site of next year’s PGA.

Jon Rahm (20-1)

Another player who seemed destined for greatness after rising to No. 1 in the world with wins at the 2021 U.S. Open and 2023 Masters, best among his 12 Top-10s in majors since 2018. But Rahm’s 2024 majors have been interesting: now on the LIV tour, he missed the cut at the PGA and withdrew from the U.S. Open with a toe injury.

Tommy Fleetwood (22-1)

The good news: The likeable Englishman’s seven Top-20 PGA Tour finishes in 2024 include a tie for third at the Masters. The not-so-good news: He’s never won on the PGA Tour; he’s the only Top-15 player in the world (13th) without a win in America, where he plays most often (14 events in 2024). He did capture the DP World Tour’s Dubai Invitational in January.

Cameron Smith (22-1)

The mullet-wearing Aussie famously out-dueled Rory McIlroy in the final round of the 2022 Open Championship. Like Rahm, he now plays the LIV tour; previously he had won five PGA Tour titles, including the 2022 Players Championship, and three Australian PGA Championships. He apparently has the game to win majors.

Brooks Koepka (25-1)

How do you not include a five-time major winner? Another LIV player, Koepka was the world’s hottest from 2017-19, winning two U.S. Opens and two PGA Championships and adding a third PGA in 2023. He’s challenged at the Masters (tie-second in 2019). But in Open Championships, after four top-10s from 2015-21, he missed the cut in 2022 and tied for 64th last year.