EPL betting: There's a lot at stake across the final two match days of the season

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The final few days of the Premier League season are upon us.

After three games are made up on Thursday, everyone kicks off at 11 a.m. ET across various NBC networks on Sunday. And there’s a lot at stake. Manchester City has a one-point lead on Liverpool entering the final day of the season. If City wins over Aston Villa, it clinches the title no matter what Liverpool does against Wolves. If it ties or loses, Liverpool is the champion with a win. If City loses and Liverpool ties, City wins via goal difference unless City gets blown out by Villa and Liverpool and Wolves combine for 10 goals.

Chelsea can finish no lower than fourth and has clinched a Champions League spot. Tottenham is currently in fourth on 68 points and two points ahead of Arsenal thanks to the Gunners’ miserable run last week. Arsenal’s losses to Tottenham and Newcastle mean Tottenham just needs a win or a draw at already-relegated Norwich City to clinch a Champions League spot. Arsenal can only get into the Champions League with a win and a Tottenham loss.

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - MAY 15: Everton players react after Brentford's second goal during the EPL match between Everton and Brentford at Goodison Park on May 15, 2022 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)
Everton needs three points over its final two games of the season to ensure EPL status in 2022-23. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)

At the bottom of the table, Watford has joined Norwich City as teams already preparing for life in the Championship in 2022-23. And there are three teams fighting to avoid finishing 18th and joining them next year.

Everton is in 16th and has 36 points with a game at home against Crystal Palace on Thursday and at Arsenal on Sunday. Leeds has 35 points and plays Brentford on the road on Sunday. Burnley has 34 points and plays Aston Villa on Thursday and Newcastle on Sunday.

Burnley is guaranteed to be in the Premier League next year with two wins and Everton can stay up with three points over its final two games. Leeds, meanwhile needs to win and hope Burnley gets three or fewer points over its two games or Everton gets just one.

Here are the odds for the 13 games on Thursday and Sunday. Will we get some serious drama for the title and at the bottom of the table? We sure hope so. All odds are from BetMGM and all games are on Sunday unless noted.

Everton vs. Crystal Palace (over/under 2.5 goals) [Thursday]

  • Everton (-105)

  • Palace (+300)

  • Tie (+240)

Everton threw away a chance to beat Brentford at home over the weekend. Points here would be massive. We’re going with a tie.

Chelsea vs. Leicester City (2.5) [Thursday]

  • Chelsea (-225)

  • Leicester (+625)

  • Tie (+360)

Chelsea is heavily favored and should take all three points thanks to Leicester’s shaky defending.

Aston Villa vs. Burnley (2.5) [Thursday]

  • Villa (+115)

  • Burnley (+240)

  • TIe (+240)

Villa faces a team fighting for its Premier League life on Thursday and then a team fighting to win the title on Sunday. No big deal. We’ll go with Villa at home in this one.

Arsenal vs. Everton (2.5)

  • Arsenal (-185)

  • Everton (+475)

  • Tie (+333)

Arsenal would be the logical bet but it’s hard to pick the Gunners after the last week. This could be the game that has everyone’s attention over the final half-hour of Sunday’s slate if Leeds and Burnley have done what they need to do.

Brentford vs. Leeds (2.5)

  • Brentford (+135)

  • Leeds (+185)

  • Tie (+250)

Brentford could finish in the top half of the table with a win and some help. Is that enough motivation against a side desperate for a result to stay up? We’ll go with a tie here and some serious nail biting for Leeds fans.

Burnley vs. Newcastle (2.5)

  • Burnley (+135)

  • Newcastle (+200)

  • Tie (+230)

Newcastle should be good enough to beat Burnley but we can easily foresee a scenario where Burnley has to break character and attack all out in the second half to stay up.

Brighton & Hove vs. West Ham (2.5)

  • Brighton (+155)

  • West Ham (+175)

  • Tie (+230)

We’ll go with West Ham in this one, though Brighton’s home form can be stellar.

Chelsea vs. Watford (3.5)

  • Chelsea (-550)

  • Watford (+1550)

  • Tie (+650)

Chelsea. Easy.

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United (2.5)

  • Palace (+200)

  • United (+125)

  • Tie (+250)

Is this Cristiano Ronaldo’s last game for Manchester United? United needs three points here to secure Europa League play for next season. I’m not sure they get it.

Leicester City vs. Southampton (3.5)

  • Leicester (-110)

  • Southampton (+270)

  • Tie (+275)

Southampton is a weird team and has fallen to 15th in the table. Leicester is the pick.

Liverpool vs. Wolves (3.5)

  • Liverpool (-550)

  • Wolves (+1500)

  • Tie (+575)

Liverpool.

Norwich City vs. Tottenham (3.5)

  • Norwich (+1100)

  • Tottenham (-450)

  • Tie (+550)

Tottenham.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa (3.5)

  • City (-600)

  • Villa (+1650)

  • Tie (+650)

Manchester City? Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa helping the Reds win the title by stopping Manchester City on the final day is the stuff movie writers love. Will it happen? The odds say it’s a big long shot.

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