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Blue Jays' offseason needs: Improving lineup is biggest priority, but also the trickiest
After finishing their 2023 season on a sour note, the Toronto Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in the offseason.
After getting swept by the Minnesota Twins in the wild-card series, the Toronto Blue Jays' offseason is officially underway.
The team's unimpressive showing in that matchup — and its core's inability to drive postseason success —has elicited calls for wholesale change, but it seems more likely this team will be tweaked rather than overhauled.
While that may sound unsatisfying to those unhappy with this squad, the bones of the team are largely in place, particularly on the pitching side.
That's an unambiguous positive for the Blue Jays. Bringing back Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi gives the team a good chance to have a strong rotation again in 2024.
A bullpen that was a top-10 unit in the majors by ERA (3.68) and fWAR (5.1) this season is all under team control with the exception of Jordan Hicks. The team has the option to bring back Chad Green to help mitigate that loss, too — and there are other internal options like Nate Pearson, Zach Pop or Hagen Danner who could bolster the group.
The pitching staff was the strength of the team in 2023, and essentially the same cast of characters will be available next season.
When it comes to position players things get a little murkier, but continuity isn't as appealing when it pertains to a group that underachieved.
Below is a rundown of what the team's needs are before they get started in 2024:
The rotation
The quartet of Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt and Kikuchi is a promising foundation to build upon. With Hyun-jin Ryu's contract expiring the fifth spot is wide open, but it's unlikely the team will invest heavily in that position if Alek Manoah is around.
Assuming the relationship between the starter and the team, which frayed significantly in 2023, can be repaired, there's no sense blocking his path to a rotation spot. Getting some insurance in case Manoah's unable to give the team quality innings in 2024 just as he couldn't in 2023 might be wise, but it's unlikely to come in the form of a big, brand-name acquisition.
A wild card here is top prospect Ricky Tiedemann. The 21-year-old made it up to Triple-A at the end of 2023 and his stuff might just be MLB-ready, but he managed just 44 pro innings during the regular season due to injuries. He'll be adding to that total in the Arizona Fall League, but the southpaw is likely to begin 2024 under serious workload constraints.
There is a chance that Tiedemann forces the Blue Jays' hand at some point in 2024, but he could still benefit from some Triple-A experience. The team can't specifically plan for him to ascend and play a significant role — even if that outcome is a possibility.
The bullpen
This is the simplest situation the Blue Jays have to deal with. With Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza, Yimi Garcia, Génesis Cabrera and Trevor Richards all under team control through 2024 they can effectively run it back.
It would be a surprise to see them bring back Hicks given the franchise's reluctance to pay top dollar for high-leverage relievers, but that will be worth considering. Green has a complicated contract situation that can go one of four ways:
The Blue Jays pick up a club option for three years at $27 million
That option is declined and Green picks up a one-year, $6.25-million player option
That option is declined and Toronto gets a two-year, $21-million option that includes performance bonuses
All the options are declined and Green becomes a free agent.
Green appeared in 13 games in 2023 between the playoffs and the regular season, allowing seven earned runs in 13.1 innings. His stuff looked sharp, though, as he struck out 17 batters. The quality of his repertoire in 2023 and his excellent track record make him a solid bet on either of the options Toronto could sign him to.
Whether the team sticks with Green or not, the foundation of a strong relief corps is in place for 2024. It's always worth shopping around for bullpen arms in the offseason, but that won't be the Blue Jays' primary focus.
The position players
This is where things get interesting. If you were going to write a lineup card for the 2024 Blue Jays based on the players they have in house it would look something like this:
C — Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk
1B — Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2B —?
SS — Bo Bichette
3B — ?
LF — ?
CF — Daulton Varsho
RF — George Springer
DH – ?
There are some players there fans don't want to see, but these six spots seem fairly safe. Based on what the team invested in Varsho, they are going to give him another shot. Calls to trade Guerrero will almost certainly fall on deaf ears as it would be extremely unwise to ship him off at the nadir of his value.
Bichette and the catchers are locked in on merit and the near impossibility of finding upgrades at those positions. Springer's contract keeps him in place, and while he underachieved in 2023 he was still a solid starter.
Some combination of Cavan Biggio and Davis Schneider could probably fill the second-base spot. That was happening down the stretch in 2023 as Whit Merrifield faltered.
The other positions are tougher to plug internally. Prospects Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger are both possible third basemen of the future, but neither posted a wRC+ above 105 at Triple-A in 2023.
Handing either a starting spot on Opening Day would be premature.
The position players hitting free agency — Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier, Merrifield (under the safe assumption his $18 million mutual option isn't picked up) — free up $27.55 million of possible spending money. Ryu's $20 million is also coming off the books and that money probably isn't going to the pitching staff.
If the Blue Jays are willing to run a similar payroll in 2024 that they had in 2023, there will be enough flexibility to plug the gaps in their lineup. The bad news for the team is that the free-agent market isn't packed with impact players.
On the other hand, it's tough to see them bringing anyone back. Chapman will require a robust financial commitment and the team may be reluctant to block its prospects, Belt has openly mulled retirement and his age (35) makes him unlikely to repeat his strong 2023, and Kiermaier is a defence-first player who turns 34 in April.
He just had his best offensive season since 2016 and managed to stay on the field more than he had since 2019. Signing him coming off that type of platform year would be extremely risky, and the team is looking for more of an offensive boost than he can provide.
Toronto will have the resources to pursue a lineup overhaul. The biggest question for them will be whether they're able to find the players capable of providing it. Getting this lineup to be as dangerous as it was in 2021 and 2022 will probably involve paying a high price in free agency due to a scarcity of options, or dipping into the prospect pool to make something happen on the trade market.
