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Andre Ellington primed for fantasy bounce back

At this point last season, Andre Ellington was the object of fantasy owner affection. He was an exciting young back off an impressive rookie season entrenched behind an improved offensive line. His versatility, limited competition and general electricity convinced many to confidently invest an early-round pick in his services. Bruce Arians, after all, was committed to making his running back the focal point of the offense, potentially riding him some 25-plus times per game. 

However, before the regular season could get underway, things got a bit prickly in the desert.

In Arizona’s final exhibition tune-up, Ellington suffered a split tendon in his foot, an injury Arians later admitted ‘set [the Cardinals] way back.’ Originally expected to miss 4-6 weeks with the ailment, the rusher powered through only to meet his demise Week 13 after undergoing hernia surgery. 

If only Ryan Mathews possessed similar toughness...

Still, considering the circumstances, Ellington achieved remarkable success. His 3.28 yards per carry was appalling, but, thanks to a rigorous workload (20.6 touches/game), he averaged 87.9 total yards per contest. He also dove into the end-zone five times.  His resulting 11.3 fantasy points per game ranked No. 14 in standard formats. Even better, he was the 10th-best RB in PPR. And a sizable chunk of that was accomplished sans Carson Palmer. That alone is worth much applause.

People quickly forget how good Ellington was his rookie season. He ranked at or near the top in several secondary categories including breakaway percentage (RB1), elusive rating (RB5) and yards per route run (RB10). His 5.52 yards per carry, which set the pace among all RBs in 2013, and 57.1 yards after contact percentage were equally sensational. And he did that working behind a shoddy offensive line (No. 26 in run-blocking per Pro Football Focus).

If not for the unforgiving injury imp, it’s reasonable to think he would’ve finished inside the RB top-five last fall.

Now fully recovered, he is again on the precipice of statistical greatness, despite ongoing doubts spewed by naysayers. Yes, the Cardinals added David Johnson in Round 3 of the NFL Draft, but Arians has repeatedly described the rookie as an insurance policy. His skill set is very similar to Ellington’s. Thoughts of the incumbent losing goal-line work are exaggerated. In Arizona’s no-huddle offense it’s likely Johnson will be rotated in only 30 percent of the time, serving the starter some 18-20 touches each week.

Behind an offensive line which recently signed hole-creator Mike Lupati, who ranked No. 16 among all NFL guards in run-blocking in 2014, Ellington is a strong rebound candidate and an exceptional value at his current 68.8 ADP (RB21).

Underestimating him is terrible mistake.

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