Red Wings, Blues gamble on goalie controversies to start playoffs

The St. Louis Blues and Detroit Red Wings no longer share a division, but this postseason they share a particular circumstance: Having two goaltenders that are steady if never spectacular veterans, and have middling postseason track records; and two other goalie that lack experience but – in theory – could win you a series.

Or lose one, too.

But Brian Elliott of the St. Louis Blues will watch from the bench as Jake Allen is given first crack against the Minnesota Wild in Game 1. And Jimmy Howard of the Detroit Red Wings will watch from the bench as Petr Mrazek gets the nod against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 1, as both series open on Thursday night.

“If this was something that was obvious to the whole world, you guys wouldn’t be asking me the same questions about it over and over again,” said Mike Babcock, right before enthusiastically announcing Mrazek for Game 1 this week.

“I like what he’s done for us thus far. He’s a good puck handler, he’s a competitive kid. Their skill sets are different.”

That said, Howard, 31, has appeared in the last five postseason for Detroit, posting a 21-24 record with a .919 save percentage and a 2.53 GAA. He’s made the semifinals three times, losing all three series; the other two appearances resulted in first-round exits. He's also signed through 2019.

Red Wings fans demanded more from Howard, and a burgeoning goalie controversy was born thanks to the emergence of Mrazek, soon to be 23, who was 16-9-2 this season with a .918 save percentage. Babcock’s decision to start him, even if it was a tactical one, solidifies that controversy.

The popular opinion is that Howard can’t steal a series but Mrazek can, and that Howard’s mental toughness can be questioned but Mrazek’s is exemplary. From Helene St. James of the Free Press:

It's that mental toughness, that bone-deep belief that he can recover from anything, that's part of Mrazek's appeal. Even as he was days from making his NHL playoff debut (Tampa Bay goaltender Ben Bishop will be doing the same), Mrazek had no nerves. "It's just a game," he said. "Who is going to score more goals is going to win."

Or, who gets the best goaltending is going to win. Babcock acknowledged there's risk in starting Mrazek — the Wings only have to look to last year to see how those unaware of how intense playoff hockey is can shrivel, as none of the young players made an impact against Boston.

And that’s why starting him is a smart bet: If he fades, the reins are handed to a veteran. Reverse the roles, and it would feel like an act of desperation rather than a gamble lost.

The same holds for Ken Hitchcock of the St. Louis Blues.

Jake Allen has played a minute in the postseason. OK, technically, 1 minute and 7 seconds, in a 5-2 loss to the Kings on April 30, 2012.

The player he’s replacing, Brian Elliott, has 18 appearances in the playoffs with Ottawa and St. Louis. He’s 6-10, having seen the semifinals once in 2012 and then getting benched in favor of mercenary Ryan Miller last postseason.

Elliott’s posted a .919 save percentage and a 1.90 GAA in the Blues’ 2013 loss to the Kings. But it wasn’t enough to win, and it wasn’t enough to convince management not to chase Miller at the following trade deadline. And clearly, his performance as of late wasn’t enough to convince Hitchcock that Elliott, 30, deserved the call over Allen, 24.

"It's his turn," Blues coach Ken Hitchcock said on Wednesday regarding Allen. "One guy's had a great season, and one guy's had a great last six weeks. And we opted to go with the guy that's had a great last six weeks, so either way, it's a decision that we couldn't be wrong with."

The coach said it’s a Game 1 decision that could change for Game 2. “Both guys have really earned the right to play in the playoffs, and both guys need to stay sharp, but we wanted to give Jake Game 1,” he said.

Ask around the Blues locker room, and you hear familiar praise for their young goalie; the sort of thing you could imagine Babcock saying about Mrazek. From STLToday.com:

“He’s very calm in net,” defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk said. “He just seems like a guy who enjoys these bigger games down the stretch. The Chicago games especially, he just seemed to step up and just enjoy the added pressure and that’s a quality that’s hard to find, especially in goalies.

“I don’t think the magnitude of the game fazes him. He had a little bump in the road earlier this year and I think that was good for him and he’s kind of found a way to work through that and get back to his game.”

Both coaches know they have a veteran fallback position. Elliott is a well-liked teammate -- the dude who left vacation to be an all-star! -- who has never been the reason the Blues have lost a playoff series; the same could be said of Howard, although he’s shown a bit more inconsistency in the playoffs. “It’s a decision we couldn’t be wrong with, to be honest,” said Hitchcock, and Babcock would no doubt echo it.

But they also know the have two young, inexperienced goalies that have The Dryden Factor; or, less blasphemous, The Cam Ward Factor.

That lightning in a bottle that can be captured by a goalie for a two-month, four-series playoff journey. That moment when the kid backup becomes a folk hero on a quest for the Holy Grail.

The Red Wings and Blues have placed their bets. Can't wait to see what the payouts are.

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