Huge if True: New York Islanders and big offseason changes

The very, very, very good news for Garth Snow as he heads into this summer is that Travis Hamonic no longer wants to be traded.

The reason he wanted to go, it seems, is that a close family member had a bit of a health crisis, but is now perhaps out of the woods. And therefore, Hamonic is more than happy to stay with the Islanders for the duration of his bargain contract.

That's a big load off Snow's mind, assuredly, and allows him to shift his attention to a number of other issues now facing his club.

Arguably first and foremost on that list is the fact that Kyle Okposo — who provided 194 points to the Islanders' cause in 210 games over the last three seasons — goes from a $2.8 million AAV player to an unrestricted free agent who may or may not be re-signed. Other key players, like Matt Martin and Frans Nielsen, are also poised to hit the UFA market, and there's the sticky situation in goal to consider as well.

Lots of questions, certainly, and it's likely going to take some maneuvering to figure everything out and come to a satisfactory conclusion that positions the Islanders to match or even improve upon their postseason performance this year.

The Rumor

Okay so first things first here is that big and perhaps unknowable changes are coming to the Islanders on July 1. Not in the form of who signs where, but in who signs the checks. On that day, current minority owners Jon Ledecky and Scott Malkin will finally take over from Charles Wang, the bad majority owner. How does that affect the budget? How does that affect not just the roster but the entire team going forward? We just don't know yet.

One thing we do know is, points or not, the Islanders are probably going to let Okposo walk. Maybe that's been the plan all along because he's about to get incredibly expensive. To that end, “there have been no talks of any substance” between the two sides, and “there would need to be a drastic change” before July 1 to actually keep him in Brooklyn long-term and for big money.

There's more to unpack with Okposo later, but one can rest pretty assured that his days as an Islander are over. That might also be the case for Frans Nielsen, an under-appreciated two-way forward who might soon be very appreciated in terms of salary. It's believed that if the 32-year-old hits the open market this summer, he could pull as much as $5.5 million. Would the Islanders want to match that? Tough to say for sure, but let's put it this way: John Tavares only makes $5.5 million, and you really cannot in any way justify paying Nielsen as much as Tavares.

As for Matt Martin, well, he's a $1.1 million fourth-line player, and he's probably due a minor but deserved raise. That feels like something the Islanders can swing for sure. Projections for a $3 million cap hit going forward strike me as being incredibly overstated, but if that's the price tag the Islanders would be wise to let him catch a plane elsewhere.

There are also RFAs to re-sign, but all of them should come relatively cheap. If your biggest concern is what you give Casey Cizikas, it's basically a non-issue.

Then there's the issue of what to do with Jaroslav Halak, a $4.5 million goalie through 2018, who just got outplayed by career backup Thomas Greiss. Halak is a pretty good goalie all things considered (.917 career) but is on the wrong side of 30, expensive, and can't stay healthy. There's a non-zero chance he gets traded.

It's also possible that more expensive players who haven't panned out — Nik Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski — are traded or, depending upon whom you believe, bought out.

Who's Going Where?

All indications are that the Islanders and most of their free agents are creeping toward deals, or at least willing to work in concert to make things come together. That means Frans Nielsen, in full “I want to come back” mode, and Matt Martin probably stick around. All the RFA negotiations, too, will almost certainly prove minimally worrying.

The Okposo thing is a major concern. The three guys on pricey contracts are certainly worries, but lesser ones.

In the case of Okposo, it doesn't really matter where he's going as long as “Not Brooklyn” is the answer, but the number of teams that should want a 28-year-old winger who produced 0.92 points per game over the last three seasons is going to be sought-after. Teams with cap space and needs up front like Buffalo will probably be at the front of the line.

Likewise, there are plenty of teams that need goalies who can stop more than the league-average number of shots — namely, half of Canada — but the asking price Snow might advance to any suitors is not yet clear, and therefore it's tough to see who bites. Especially given the injury history. If you have cap space anyway you probably don't care about the money, but the other factors are certainly worrisome enough that a trade might not happen at all.

And if you, personally, have some ideas where Kulemin and Grabovski might be wanted, maybe wise to give Snow a call and let him know you found a sucker. Grabovski is still a marginal possession driver who doesn't score much any more and can't stay healthy (18-26-44 in 109 games over the last two seasons), and Kulemin is perfectly fit but also can't score and doesn't drive possession. So, y'know.

The Implications

The Islanders certainly have some misallocated dollars to deal with here, and how they do that is up to new ownership and other GMs. Snow probably doesn't have much say in the matter right now, if you think about it.

He's letting Okposo walk, which seems unwise to me, but the club also has some talented youngsters potentially ready to make the jump to the NHL (Michael Dal Colle and maybe even Matthew Barzal chief among them). Ready or not, they may be pressed into action with Okposo's absence, unless Snow can find a reasonable replacement on the market. That seems doubtful.

It's more likely that current roster players get shuffled up into Okposo's role, rather than having the kids thrust into it. Maybe the kids could take over from one of the older guys now rumored to be looking at a buyout or trade, if that happens.

Regardless, you can probably expect something of a youth movement in Brooklyn for next season, if only because there may not be many free agent options out there, and the team probably doesn't have the chips to make improvements via trade.

Of course, Garth Snow has surprised us all before, and he could do it again this summer. But more likely, there's no replacing Okposo and the best that can be hoped for is a little more cap flexibility via trade that allows for some mid-level signings.

This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?

On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:

Once again, a lot of rumors to rate this week, so here we go:

Okposo goes elsewhere:

(Basically guaranteed)

Nielsen re-signs:

(More likely than not, but someone could offer a really dumb contract he'd be a fool to decline)

Martin re-signs:

(Pretty damn close to a sure thing, but see above about a dumb contract offer)

Halak gets moved:

(Because he's pretty good and signed for another few years I can see some interested parties out there, but I'm dubious)

Kulemin/Grabovski get traded:

(I am less optimistic about teams lining up to acquire these guys)

Kulemin/Grabovski get bought out:

(Maybe one or the other, certainly not both, probably not either)

Thanks.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)

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