Huge If True: Byfuglien to Los Angeles? Ladd to Florida?

[HUGE IF TRUE breaks down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]

The Rumor

The big quote in the world of trade rumors over the last week came last Friday at the All-Star Weekend media day, when Dustin Byfuglien said of the likelihood that he re-signs with the Jets, “I don’t mind Winnipeg at all.”

Headlines! Tweets! Radio segments!

What does that even mean, Dustin? Six words that sound very damning indeed.

But this is one of the problems with print: Not a lot of room for tone. People acted as though Byfuglien said it with the same enthusiasm as a child coming home from a bad day at school and saying it was, “Fine.”

First of all, Elliotte Friedman was there and says that wasn't the tone of the quote. Second, there was more to the quote anyway. Before he said The Six Words he also said Winnipeg is, “[his] style of town.” And then right after — like, the next sentence — he said, “It’s the closest I’ll ever get to be able to play by home... so many good things that I like about Winnipeg. I can do my outdoor stuff that I love to do. I have no problem being up there.”

Which is of course a far cry from basically saying Winnipeg is fine but also he's almost certainly looking to leave.

Here's how Byfuglien seems to have left it:

“I just told my agent, ‘Don’t talk to be me about it. When things get close, let me know and we’ll have a quick chat about it.’ He’s got a job to do. I’ve got a job to do.”

But to some extent, it's not up to him whether he stays or goes. While Friedman says the Jets want to re-sign Byfuglien and are now kicking around what kind of term seems reasonable, TSN/ESPN's Pierre LeBrun seems to be softening the beaches for a trade regardless. Another contract offer from the team may be in Byfuglien's future, but if it doesn't make sense then he's gonna get gone.

The issue of that little quote, though, apparently got so bad that Byfuglien back in Winnipeg had to say even more unequivocally that he would “love to” stay, and referred to the city as “home.”

Who's Going Where?

LeBrun, for the record, has the Kings among the interested suitors.

So the question here is whether the Jets — not exactly a team likely to approach the salary cap next season — are willing to give Byfuglien a long-term deal (despite the fact that he's already 30) and an AAV of more than $7 million, by LeBrun's reckoning.

At publication time, the trade deadline is 25 days away, and that's a period in which a lot of moving pieces have to start lining up. On TSN's Insider Trading, Darren Dreger cites a number of NHL GMs who believe that the entire trade market is basically set up like a row of dominoes, and Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is the guy who needs to either put this last piece into place or not-do that, so that everyone else can go about their business.

Because when discussing Byfuglien's status, one must necessarily also talk about what's likely to happen with Andrew Ladd, who seems to be less likely to re-up with the team he captains by the day. A little more than a week ago now, LeBrun had Ladd on the Panthers' shopping list, while also noting that both Ladd's camp and the Jets had settled on six years as the term for a potential extension, but no real agreement on salary had been made.

The Jets, it is understood, cannot afford to lose both to free agency, and therefore the dealings with one impact dealings with the other.

The Implications

So let's say, for example, that Ladd and Winnipeg cannot reach an agreement on a reasonable extension. That gives them the power to make a real and final offer to Byfuglien, and also get back to the GMs who have been calling about Ladd.

This changes everything we know right now, because everything we know right now is hazy at best and likely based on some well-informed guesswork. Personally I think you'd rather have Byfuglien than Ladd, because he's a top-10 or so defenseman while Ladd is a top-30 or so forward having a pretty bad year. Maybe you expect more of them in the future.

Let's face it, the Jets ought to be in a rebuild at this point, and by that logic you probably shouldn't re-sign either of them. But if you're going to re-sign one of them, you really need to know for sure which one is going to be worth more in a trade. Florida doesn't want or need a defenseman, but can the Kings' package for Byfuglien best the Panthers' package for Ladd? Obviously other teams will be involved in the bidding, each with their own needs and pieces to offer, and until that market establishes itself, everything is very unclear.

We know that one of these guys is almost certainly getting dealt, and Cheveldayoff's job now is to make sure he signs the right one and then immediately gets the best return possible for the other.

This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?

On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:

For yet another week, we have to look at all the evidence and conclude that while there is no smoke with these particular fires — that is, the Jets haven't made a final decision — it also seems likely that they'll trade one of these guys before the deadline.

Which one? Right now, it seems like a Byfuglien extension is more likely, but only by a little bit. So to that end, the “Ladd/Byfuglien is being traded” rumors floating around this week and last receive:

No one, perhaps including Kevin Cheveldayoff, knows for sure who's going where at this point, but this seems like an one-or-the-other scenario. If Byfuglien signs an extension, Ladd gets traded in short order. And vice versa.

Once that happens, all the dominos are in place. Because they play two different positions, it gives the Jets a clear path forward and effectively helps set the market for everyone.

Byfuglien at $42 million over six years says, “This is what defensemen cost to re-sign,” and a Ladd trade says, “This is what you get for good forwards on the pre-deadline market.” That obviously works the other way around as well.

We know nothing right now. We will know so much in another two weeks.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)