Greg Cosell's draft preview: Are there any starting QBs outside the top two?

It's pretty clear that this draft class of quarterbacks has a top two, and then a big gap before you get to No. 3. And there's no consensus on who No. 3 is.

It's a thin quarterback class, which is bad news if you need a quarterback and can't land Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota (I discuss Winston here, and Mariota here). I have Colorado State's Garrett Grayson as my third-ranked quarterback in this class. But he has some work to do, too.

Let's take a look at the quarterbacks, in no particular order, who should be drafted after Winston and Mariota:

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State

Like many other quarterbacks coming to the NFL, Grayson ran a shotgun spread offense in college and didn't have a meaningful amount of snaps under center. But it was a well-schemed passing game that featured NFL route concepts like bunch and stack releases, three-level stretch, flat/curl routes with a seam seal. And Grayson showed an excellent understanding of those pass-game concepts, and the ability to process and isolate quickly.

A 42-yard touchdown against Nevada was a big-time throw that showed a number of NFL attributes: eye manipulation to hold "Cover 3" single-high safety, throwing from a muddied pocket, firm seam throw with precise ball location (the play is at 2:19 in the video below):

Grayson showed the abilities to throw with anticipation on out-breaking routes against man coverage, to slide and move within the pocket, and to avoid the rush and re-set while maintaining downfield focus. These are all key attributes he'll need in the NFL.

There are things that he'll need to improve. My sense is Grayson will have a significant learning curve working from under center, particularly timing up his feet with his delivery. He has a very quirky delivery, long and deliberate with a bit of a push to it. He is not a smooth thrower. There are too many moving parts in his delivery; he needs to have much of his delivery re-worked and sped up – and that doesn’t happen very often. The concern you have with Grayson is that he can’t snap the ball with his hands – he’s an elongated thrower.

Can Grayson, with development and coaching, become a Teddy Bridgewater kind of quarterback? If Grayson is to become more than a mid-level starter type prospect in the NFL, that will probably be determined by which team drafts and develops him. I think he has the best chance to be a starting NFL quarterback in this class aside from Winston and Mariota.

Bryce Petty, Baylor

Overall, the more I watched Petty the less I liked him as an NFL starter. His almost alarming lack of accuracy was very troubling. Much of it was likely resulting from his poor footwork and balance – can that be fixed? That's a big "maybe."

There are a lot of questions that are hard to answer as he transitions from Baylor's spread offense to the NFL. He has almost no understanding of protections, because that was not part of his responsibility in the Baylor offense. He has not been taught the pass game based on three-step/five-step/seven-step drop concepts. He will be starting from scratch with that in the NFL There should be a big question of how he functions in the pocket with bodies around him; that’s a definite concern as he transitions to the NFL. He is not a progression reader and will need to be taught that in the NFL. That's a process that takes time. Petty must learn how to move his feet with his eyes when he comes off primary read, he did not stride to the throw and was not always closed to the target –  the result will be too many balls thrown with poor balance.

There is a defined quarterback skill set to work with, but Petty needs to be coached and given time to assimilate new concepts and techniques. He has a compact delivery with the ability to trigger quickly, there's good ball position and balance in the pocket, and he has light feet and deceptive mobility and movement.

But Petty was very much a one-read quarterback based on Baylor offense. There will be a significant mental learning curve to play in an NFL offense. The game he played at Baylor and the skills required to play it don’t tell us much about how he’ll transition to the NFL.

Brandon Bridge, South Alabama

What consistently stood out about Bridge was I saw NFL throws, throws that demand velocity and accuracy at the intermediate and deeper levels. He is willing to turn it loose and make throws into tight windows, and that’s a positive trait as you transition to the NFL. Bridge made many big-time throws versus Mississippi State, the highest caliber competition he faced all season; he played with poise and composure.

He has a naturally powerful arm and can throw with anticipation, especially to the outside. Bridge may have the naturally strongest arm in this year’s draft class, a very strong combination of an instant snap release and a powerful arm. Bridge can sit on his back foot and drive the ball at the intermediate levels, which is a very important trait to play in the NFL.

He does need a lot of work within the pocket. Bridge has a tendency to climb the pocket and reduce his functional space, creating his own pressure. He is not very comfortable in the pocket at this point. He will move too soon after he perceives pressures at times and breaks down. Bridge can be erratic with his ball location. He is not a precise thrower and also has a tendency to throw every pass at the same speed. He needs to develop more touch at the short to intermediate levels. Footwork on both his drop and set needs to be tightened, because at times that leads to rushed throws and erratic accuracy. 

Bridge has a lot of traits you look for in a starting NFL quarterback, but he needs much refinement as a passer and a much better intuitive understanding of how to work in the pocket.

Brett Hundley, UCLA

Hundley flashed NFL traits at times, so it’s there on film, but overall he was very inconsistent in his execution of those traits. He is a a raw and unrefined player who needs a lot of work and a lot of coaching but has traits and attributes (such as being a big, fluid athlete with ability to make outside-of-structure plays) that can transition effectively. All of this will make him a polarizing player in NFL draft rooms.

Hundley is not a natural thrower, with consistently poor lower body mechanics that negatively impact delivery, though he does have a naturally strong arm. Hundley did not show good awareness in the pocket, and did not feel and react well to bodies around him. He was too quick to leave the pocket and not comfortable with the needed patience of a timed passing game. He is not a progression reader at this point, and is slow to get through his reads. He does not have an intuitive internal clock in the pocket, and it's hard to be an NFL starter without that. Though, at times he showed the ability to throw with anticipation and precise ball placement, and I saw some excellent throws, including outside void in "Cover 2," back shoulder throws, and fade passes dropped right into the bucket.

There will be a long learning curve for Hundley and he may never get there. He must be drafted after the second round so the early expectations are low.

Sean Mannion, Oregon State

Unlike many quarterbacks coming out, Mannion has a lot of experience playing under center. He was a four-year starter in a pro-style offense. He knows how to play quarterback the way it’s played in the NFL, he just lacks the overall skill set that sets up well to be a starter.

Mannion is very deliberate in everything he does. He must quicken his drop, set and delivery. He must significantly increase the tempo of his play. He looked heavy footed, and you must have good instincts and light feet as a pure pocket passer.

It will be a challenge for Mannion to throw the ball outside the numbers at the NFL level. He did not show that kind of arm strength. Some intermediate throws lost energy on the back end, because there was too much of a loop.

Mannion understands the play-action pass game from under center, as he is comfortable turning his back to the defense. And he threw some excellent deep balls versus man coverage against Washington State; a strength of his game is his understanding where to throw the ball versus coverage. With experience and much refinement he has a chance to be a mid-level NFL starter down the road, but probably nothing more. Can Mannion over time develop into a Matt Schaub type of quarterback, a mid-level starter who needs pieces around him? The only way Mannion can function consistently in an NFL offense is with a strong running game that keeps the offense on schedule and provides the play-action pass game as a foundation.

- - - - - - -

NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.